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January 3rd wet snow potential


olafminesaw
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8 minutes ago, PackGrad05 said:

I agree with that.  They basically are waiting for more data before a WWA.

Yeah you need a high enough rate to make it all snow and to overcome the high soil temps. You would need 1 or 2 inches an hour I think to have a shot at coating the ground.

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29 minutes ago, eyewall said:

Yeah you need a high enough rate to make it all snow and to overcome the high soil temps. You would need 1 or 2 inches an hour I think to have a shot at coating the ground.

The inch or two of rain that will have fallen before any change over will also make any accumulation even more unlikely. In general I am a strong proponent of snow rate overcoming warm ground but there is a limit. 

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1 minute ago, jburns said:

The inch or two of rain that will have fallen before any change over will also make any accumulation even more unlikely. In general I am a strong proponent of snow rate overcoming warm ground but there is a limit. 

This is true. I have seen that in Carrboro, NC. We had quarter mile vis and managed a patchy dusting which vaporized immediately upon the rate easing up.

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41 minutes ago, eyewall said:

This is true. I have seen that in Carrboro, NC. We had quarter mile vis and managed a patchy dusting which vaporized immediately upon the rate easing up.

Yep- snow doesn’t accumulate well in mud puddles. I do like the trend to end as all snow on most models. Think a dusting to an inch is in play for most of the triangle. Hey- that could bust my prediction of no measurable snowfall this season! 

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35 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

Yep- snow doesn’t accumulate well in mud puddles. I do like the trend to end as all snow on most models. Think a dusting to an inch is in play for most of the triangle. Hey- that could bust my prediction of no measurable snowfall this season! 

Could end up a lot like the Feb 2020 "storm" (in the Triad)

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1 hour ago, buckeyefan1 said:

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Nothing like the leeside screw zone...although the nam here gives me about 10 flakes...which very likely won't happen. Although I am curious to see how temps behave as this is a bit of a unique situation due to the track of the low. Normally winds are calm or very light in post low nw flow thanks to the mountains and there simply isn't any caa to speak of while precip is ongoing  but the models are showing tremendous wind immediately behind the low. Curious if there will be a better temp crash than advertised or will downlope win out (most likely). Speaking of those winds,  the ground here is now totally saturated and these high wind gusts  are worrisome. As if its not bad enough being left out, losing power and down trees  Would really add on an extra layer of misery to this one. 

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7 hours ago, Lookout said:

Nothing like the leeside screw zone...although the nam here gives me about 10 flakes...which very likely won't happen. Although I am curious to see how temps behave as this is a bit of a unique situation due to the track of the low. Normally winds are calm or very light in post low nw flow thanks to the mountains and there simply isn't any caa to speak of while precip is ongoing  but the models are showing tremendous wind immediately behind the low. Curious if there will be a better temp crash than advertised or will downlope win out (most likely). Speaking of those winds,  the ground here is now totally saturated and these high wind gusts  are worrisome. As if its not bad enough being left out, losing power and down trees  Would really add on an extra layer of misery to this one. 

I feel ya on that. Tough one to watch for SC. 

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Concord here. 42 and the wind has been unbelievably strong for about 8hrs. Gusts to 30mph at times. Hoping the trees imby don't fall on the house. Checking traffic cams and looks like Rutherford County is snow now....also as usual.W-S is quickly changing to snow. The sky is brightening so looking forward to a few flakes even here on the dreaded 85snowline.  Can anyone outside of the mountains verify snow?

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