Upstate/Eastern New York-Pattern Change Vs Tughill Curse?

[tombo82685]

looks like 9-10" of cement here otg 

[rochesterdave]

18z GFS keeps with the cutter idea. Hard to bet against it. Something better give soon. 

[rochesterdave]

Not at all what we need. 

[Syrmax]

4 hours ago, CNY_WX said:

My snowpack survived our mini torch but is probably down to 2-3 inches. There are some small bare spots in drainage areas but the remaining snow will freeze into an ice sheet tonight. 

About 6" of avg snowdepth here still though we've lost over 1/2 of it in the past few days. Looks like most of the rest of it will be gone other than snowpiles over the next week.  Sigh.

[Syrmax]

3 hours ago, TugHillMatt said:

BGM is hilarious. The models are trending further SE and snowier for the end of the week, yet they made temps higher and reduced snow chances. I noticed the weekend crew there tends to do this though.

I'm at 56" of total snowfall for the season and it's looking like we will struggle to reach even 70" at this rate, unless we nickel and dime our way there over the next month. Which is what i suspect happens.

[CNY_WX]

This is what the snowpack looked like in my neighborhood this afternoon. 
 

[Leelee]

1 hour ago, rochesterdave said:

18z GFS keeps with the cutter idea. Hard to bet against it. Something better give soon. 

It's within 5 days now and the shortwave is south of mainland Alaska. Time has run out with how models are today.

[tim123]

18 minutes ago, Leelee said:

It's within 5 days now and the shortwave is south of mainland Alaska. Time has run out with how models are today.

Absolutely not

[rochesterdave]

19 minutes ago, Leelee said:

It's within 5 days now and the shortwave is south of mainland Alaska. Time has run out with how models are today.

Maybe. 200 miles in 100 hours is not unusual. But yeah, getting tight. 

[tim123]

Looks like a nice band starting to drop south off lake.

[tombo82685]

6 minutes ago, rochesterdave said:

Maybe. 200 miles in 100 hours is not unusual. But yeah, getting tight. 

I think your area and buf to art still in the game. But bgm Albany areas most likely won’t be much other than rain 

[sferic]

Very light snow in Cicero; a dusting at best

Pretty to look at though

[rochesterdave]

Snowing moderately in Irondequoit. Light winds. 

[tim123]

16 minutes ago, rochesterdave said:

Snowing moderately in Irondequoit. Light winds. 

Think you may be a big winner in county. Snowing nicely in walworth inch down since 6pm

[vortmax]

Puff bombs

[tim123]

4 minutes ago, vortmax said:

Puff bombs

This is 25 30 to 1 type stuff. Would you agree?

[rochesterdave]

4 minutes ago, tim123 said:

This is 25 30 to 1 type stuff. Would you agree?

Very dry stuff. Light snow currently 

[rochesterdave]

WRF hinting at some crazy localized stuff. It sniffs these out sometimes. Tomorrow night mostly. VERY localized

[BuffaloWeather]

Thats a nice band in Niagara county. About to enter Northern Erie.

[tim123]

4 minutes ago, rochesterdave said:

WRF hinting at some crazy localized stuff. It sniffs these out sometimes. Tomorrow night mostly. VERY localized

Drops over a foot in niagara County. Niagara peninsula.

[BuffaloWeather]

Band is pretty close to @Thinksnow18

[TugHillMatt]

The CNY snow forcefield carries on. Even with NW winds and the snow coming south over Western NY...here, it's like a WSW flow (even with NW winds) carrying the snow to the Northern Tug. The BUF forecast area has had day after day of precip this season, while we...sit and wait.

[BuffaloWeather]

GFS came back south, huge hit for Toronto, Goes right over Jamestown.

[TugHillMatt]

The infamous Jamestown to Syracuse track. It's gonna be painful to see Western NY get hit again.

[rochesterdave]

8 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

GFS came back south, huge hit for Toronto, Goes right over Jamestown.

Dang! Huge totals north of the lake. Could be a biggun 

[rochesterdave]

Entirely a frozen event for NW WNY. Buffalo-Niagara Falls. 
Imagine these maps if it shifts another 50 miles SE. Those nutty totals are without any enhancement. Shudder. Lol

[BuffaloWeather]

That line made it to the airport

[rochesterdave]

ICON with a similar idea. Track over CNY. 

[Thinksnow18]

1 hour ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Band is pretty close to @Thinksnow18

Big puff bombs, about an inch down of pure air. 

[mississaugasnow]

8 minutes ago, rochesterdave said:

Entirely a frozen event for NW WNY. Buffalo-Niagara Falls. 
Imagine these maps if it shifts another 50 miles SE. Those nutty totals are without any enhancement. Shudder. Lol

well I honestly gave up any hope of snow with this one so now I'm intrigued. Since GTA is riding the line Im also good for a 50 mile shift SE to get Buffalo-Niagara and maybe even Rochester into it.