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Upstate/Eastern New York-Pattern Change Vs Tughill Curse?


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Wednesday's turning out to maybe be a sneaky event. 0Z Nam actually has a few inches of snow for CNY and an inch or 2 for Western NY on Wednesday. 3K and mesos have it too. Long Island and my family down in PA could get a warning event. I just hope this doesn't cause the late week event to shift NW.

sn10_acc.us_ne.png

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On Wednesday, southern stream sourced shortwave trough trending
toward impacting eastern forecast area with light
precipitation, mainly in the form of snow. PVA from the
shortwave with divergence aloft provides most of the forcing as
stronger low-level convergence and moisture transport is tied
into sfc low which will be shifting off the East Coast Wednesday
afternoon. Look at forecast soundings and 2m temps points to
wet-bulb cooling keeping majority of the precip as snow, though
a mix of rain/snow showers is likely on edge of stronger lift
/mid-level cooling with shortwave. Still will be sharp western
edge to this system with only chance pops BUF to ROC to SLV. In
terms of snow accumulations, could see as much as a few inches
from NY/PA line to Finger Lakes and over higher terrain east of
Lake Ontario. Given marginal temps in the lower 30s, most of the
snow will be at highest elevations
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2 minutes ago, wolfie09 said:
On Wednesday, southern stream sourced shortwave trough trending
toward impacting eastern forecast area with light
precipitation, mainly in the form of snow. PVA from the
shortwave with divergence aloft provides most of the forcing as
stronger low-level convergence and moisture transport is tied
into sfc low which will be shifting off the East Coast Wednesday
afternoon. Look at forecast soundings and 2m temps points to
wet-bulb cooling keeping majority of the precip as snow, though
a mix of rain/snow showers is likely on edge of stronger lift
/mid-level cooling with shortwave. Still will be sharp western
edge to this system with only chance pops BUF to ROC to SLV. In
terms of snow accumulations, could see as much as a few inches
from NY/PA line to Finger Lakes and over higher terrain east of
Lake Ontario. Given marginal temps in the lower 30s, most of the
snow will be at highest elevations

We'll see. Some mesos have increased the totals, while others have cut back. Per usual, guess who's on the edge of the line...and a cliff? :P :) 

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2 hours ago, TugHillMatt said:

Oh, look! Another synoptic wave that gifts Syracuse the shaft. We suck. :lol:

weatherstory.jpg

Yeah, I've checked out on this winter. Waiting for consistent warm temps and golf now. Not getting sucked into anything else this season. It's 3 winter's straight with basically nickel and dime snow and the occasional underperforming snowstorm. Next winter maybe we revert to mean. Hopefully.

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25 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said:

Looks like the Syracuse snow shield is holding strong. Ithaca is all white, and Auburn is showing moderately right now. Looks like it's just started in the city. A flake or two here. Overcast is thick, so maybe we can do better with accumulations if it starts here.

I love looking at webcams.  Surprised to see no snow in Syracuse. 

Screenshot_20220309-124633_Windy.jpg

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