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Upstate/Eastern New York-Pattern Change Vs Tughill Curse?


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Could be a sneaky decent event tonight..

Obviously the models are not in agreement wrt precipitation amounts..

Forecast soundings display a saturated isothermal
layer that extends several thousand feet through the dendritic
growth zone by this evening, which will help boost snow-to-
liquid ratios above 15:1 due to larger flake sizes.

qpf_acc.us_ne - 2022-03-02T105436.573.png

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4 minutes ago, rochesterdave said:

I envision you repacking away your shorts. A tear in your eye. 

Sadly I am becoming less of a snow weenie. Especially once March hits. 

I attribute this to quitting drinking. I look forward to the snow less now.

I suppose the net sum is quite positive but it’s nostalgically sad…

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11 minutes ago, 96blizz said:

Sadly I am becoming less of a snow weenie. Especially once March hits. 

I attribute this to quitting drinking. I look forward to the snow less now.

I suppose the net sum is quite positive but it’s nostalgically sad…

That is sad. I bet your love for it returns. Your location is prime for March events. WAY TOO SOON to think it’s Spring. 

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Lower forecast confidence for the closure of the weekend and the
first part of the new work week as the system from the weekend
departs interior Canada and heads into its maritimes placing a
stalled frontal boundary somewhere across the region. A new surface
low will ride northward along the boundary reaching the area
sometime between Sunday night and Monday morning. Model
discrepancies with this system include the location of the stalled
boundary and the timing of arrival of the new low. The location of
the stalled front plays a major dilemma with regards to
precipitation type. If the front stalls over the region, like the
GFS and Canadian suggest, the scenario for mostly rain Sunday night
through Monday with a switch over to snow late Monday night will be
favored. Additionally, more moisture will be available with this
system, which will make for QPF amounts to range from a half inch to
and inch. If this scenario becomes valid, flooding will definitely
become of concern. Whereas the outlier with this case, the ECMWF has
the boundary stalling further south of the region, filtering in the
cold air in faster and supports an all snow scenario.
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50 minutes ago, wolfie09 said:
Lower forecast confidence for the closure of the weekend and the
first part of the new work week as the system from the weekend
departs interior Canada and heads into its maritimes placing a
stalled frontal boundary somewhere across the region. A new surface
low will ride northward along the boundary reaching the area
sometime between Sunday night and Monday morning. Model
discrepancies with this system include the location of the stalled
boundary and the timing of arrival of the new low. The location of
the stalled front plays a major dilemma with regards to
precipitation type. If the front stalls over the region, like the
GFS and Canadian suggest, the scenario for mostly rain Sunday night
through Monday with a switch over to snow late Monday night will be
favored. Additionally, more moisture will be available with this
system, which will make for QPF amounts to range from a half inch to
and inch. If this scenario becomes valid, flooding will definitely
become of concern. Whereas the outlier with this case, the ECMWF has
the boundary stalling further south of the region, filtering in the
cold air in faster and supports an all snow scenario.

Buf going the warm route. Shoot

  • Haha 1
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