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Upstate/Eastern New York-Pattern Change Vs Tughill Curse?


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1 hour ago, rochesterdave said:

I really like the chance for enhancement with this storm. Long duration of ENE winds. Something to watch for. image.thumb.png.78740ac870c16ff915b6d34d51ac5ae0.png

Which if you look at the LR globals they all show the Niagara Frontier with the least amount of QPF…this SHOULD  be the exact  opposite with those wind trajectories 

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6 minutes ago, wolfie09 said:

While the mean looks solid on the eps , still a decent spread amongst members which is to be expected, obviously lol

Some are south, some are north and you get the mean lol Big difference between a couple inches and double digits..

I'm looking at the positive look of something. Give me a break. :P 

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13 minutes ago, wolfie09 said:

While the mean looks solid on the eps , still a decent spread amongst members which is to be expected, obviously lol

Some are south, some are north and you get the mean lol Big difference between a couple inches and double digits..

Wolfie you’re the guru of NWS text posts…any idea where/why the NWS stated a lull in precip for Thursday night??? Do they have a secret model or are they just losing it???

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Here is the afternoon discussion..

Thursday night...a southern stream system will become a bit better
organized with the sfc low tracking northeast across Kentucky and
Tennessee. Meanwhile...a secondary coastal low will begin to form
off the Carolinas which overtime becomes the main sfc low that
steams up the coast during the day Friday. Right now...thermal
profiles suggest that this will primarily be an all snow event.
However...guidance does show a warm layer between 925-850 hPa
getting precariously close to the NY/PA boarder on Friday. It won`t
be out the realm of possibilities to see a mix...if enough warm air
sneaks in aloft. That said...the other concern is the track of the
850H low which isn`t ideal. Initially that won`t inhibit a period of
accumulating snow on Thursday night but there could be a period of
very light precipitation (little accumulation) or even a lull. Still
way too early too get locked into this scenario. Confidence is
growing that we will potentially see some accumulating snows...but
not enough to lock onto any given solution right now.
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1 minute ago, TugHillMatt said:

Interesting, as it's NOT 5+ days out. It is 3 to 4 days.

Yeah start time Thur evening, so 4-4.25 days. Thought they'd add this storm to the HWO with the afternoon update, but they left it out. Think they are focusing on the mid week storm moreso for now.

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2 minutes ago, Syrmax said:

Positive?  ... I'm up to 60.1" of snow for the season. If GooFuS or CMC pan out we have a shot at getting near last year's totals (78") in the next 10 days?

Yes, as in I'm looking at the positive aspects of the potentials with the system and perhaps future systems afterwards. Never mind. I wasn't saying I was trying to find "a" positive.

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6 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said:

Yes, as in I'm looking at the positive aspects of the potentials with the system and perhaps future systems afterwards. Never mind. I wasn't saying I was trying to find "a" positive.

How about.. increasing sun angle starts to melt the ice on my pool cover? ;)  Too soon?

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