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Upstate/Eastern New York-Pattern Change Vs Tughill Curse?


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Euro moved the heavy snow axis 50 miles NW as compared to 6z and 75 miles compared to 0z. Big adjustment this late in the game. 
We all knew it was coming. I just don’t buy that it’s still the king. Maybe with 500 mb verification but that’s a useless parameter. Especially short term. 
Throw down your crown! Lol

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Temperatures in the mid 40s but dew points below freezing will minimize melting today. Aiding the melt is a fairly strong wind to disperse that layer of cold air just above the snow. Also adding to snow melt is the ever increasing strength of insolation. Tomorrow is going to be a disaster for our snowpack with rain and higher dew points and temperatures. 

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2 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Latest NAM increased the FZR

zr_acc.us_ne.png

Would be some problems if that came to fruition. Fully not expecting even close to that much. Also gotta think these models just spit out total QPF with rain falling above the surface but temps at or below freezing. With runoff and the amount of time it takes for ice to accrete I don’t see this being anywhere even close to right, although it is interesting to watch. 

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4 minutes ago, lakeeffectkid383 said:

Would be some problems if that came to fruition. Fully not expecting even close to that much. Also gotta think these models just spit out total QPF with rain falling above the surface but temps at or below freezing. With runoff and the amount of time it takes for ice to accrete I don’t see this being anywhere even close to right, although it is interesting to watch. 

agreed. I'm thinking mainly rain and then 1-2" of sleet/snow on backside 

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3 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

agreed. I'm thinking mainly rain and then 1-2" of sleet/snow on backside 

Buffalo has a big range in the immediate WNY area. Most likely comes down to miles tomorrow night in the Buffalo Metro. 

Buffalo 1" while Niagara Falls 3-5" 

Niagara Falls-Lewiston-Youngstown might sneak out an actual winter storm with this. Assuming a tiny shift could put them in 4-6" over a 6 hour period 

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Winter Returns...

Cold air advection ramps up the second half of Thursday and
temperatures dramatically drop below freezing. There will likely
be a 1-3 hour period of sleet and freezing rain as rain changes
to snow across the region. Then accumulating snowfall is
expected into Friday. Ice accumulations of a trace to a tenth of
an inch possible. Snow fall amounts of 3-6 inches possible in
Niagara county and 2 to 4 inches possible along the southern
shore of Lake Ontario and across the northern Tug Hill region.
Elsewhere, 1-2 inches possible. Very cold with flash freeze
conditions Thursday night into Friday morning. Low temperatures
will fall to the teens to low 20s and wind chill values in the
single digits Friday morning. Winter Weather Headlines are
possible Thursday night into Friday for wintry conditions across
western and north central NY.
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Glad I was able to go skiing last night. Season might be over. 

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
This period will be dominated by a split...Pacific based flow that
will support above normal temperatures through the period. This will
especially be the case during the daylight hours when the mercury
will average a solid 5 to 10 degrees above typical late Feb
normals.

The split flow will be highlighted by another potentially
significant rain maker that will originate in the southern
branch of the unphased jets. Fortunately...broad, flat ridging
over the eastern conus should all but guarantee fair dry weather
to start this period Sunday and Monday.

By Monday night through...energy ejecting out the longwave trough
over the western half of the country will promote cyclogenesis
within the broad southwest flow over the Ohio valley. As we the
case with the initial uncertainty with our current storm
system...the various deterministic models are out of step with
the amount of organization and also with the timing of this next
sfc wave that could produce another significant round of rain
over our region on Tuesday.

Expansive high pressure over the northern plains Tuesday night
should then build across the Great Lakes region for Wednesday with
only spotty leftover rain and wet snow showers.
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Saturday...cold front quickly crosses the area with a brief uptick
in snow showers activity as CAA ramps up across the region. There
will also be some accumulating lake snows to contend with as over
lake instability increases with 850 hPa temps falling to -17C/-19C.
BUFKIT profiles show equilibriums levels climbing to near 12k feet
and sufficient moisture extending through the DGZ. That said...might
see some decent accumulations east of Lake Ontario. Will need to
keep an eye on this potential but it`s only a brief window too see
accumulating snows.
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Flood threat tomorrow evening through Friday morning looking pretty decent.  Along with the Cotter ice breaking on the Buffalo River the Underwater Team was out cutting the triangles into Caz Creek.  The slants are packed with ice already so once things start flowing upstream expect to see issues in the normal problem areas.  Snowpack is extremely ripe with a high water content still in the 2-4” range.  1-2” of rain possible with a rapid melt of the remaining snow pack and things should get rather interesting.  

119C6D2D-7B48-4392-AA97-86535818B1E4.jpeg

E203B761-AE97-40EB-856D-EA2DB01AC66B.jpeg

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