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Upstate/Eastern New York-Pattern Change Vs Tughill Curse?


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2 minutes ago, Syrmax said:

Well, this is in my signature (not viewable on phone) but here are my last several winters:

Snowfall 2021/22 55.8 Thru 2/05/22 

Snowfall 2020/21 78.3” 

Snowfall 2019/20: 87.7" 

Snowfall 2018/19: 135.5" 

Snowfall 2017/18: 138.3”

 

I was going to say, "You need to update that as it's only through the fifth." But, we haven't had anymore since then, so doesn't matter. lol

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Here are my last 9. 2013-2015 was an epic stretch. 

  • 2013-14 snowfall: 161.7"            2018-19 snowfall: 122.8”                            
  • 2014-15 snowfall: 212.8"           2019-20 snowfall: 83.3"
  • 2015-16 snowfall: 80.1"              2020-21 snowfall: 101.1"
  • 2016-17 snowfall: 93.3"             2021-22 snowfall: 76.9" 
  • 2017-18 snowfall: 152.4"           
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11 minutes ago, Syrmax said:

Well, this is in my signature (not viewable on phone) but here are my last several winters:

Snowfall 2021/22 55.8 Thru 2/05/22 

Snowfall 2020/21 78.3” 

Snowfall 2019/20: 87.7" 

Snowfall 2018/19: 135.5" 

Snowfall 2017/18: 138.3”

 

It’s amazing we’re so close total wise. I’m at 55.7 inches as of today.  Last year I ended up with 81.3 inches. 

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16 minutes ago, wolfie09 said:

Oswego E COOP still needs 7" to prevent their 3rd straight sub 60" season lol Before that I couldn't find a sub 70"...

That's crazy. I was using those stats as a way to say no way it does it a 3rd year in a row. Still a chance at a good March, pattern doesn't look horrible. 

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3 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

That's crazy. I was using those stats as a way to say no way it does it a 3rd year in a row. Still a chance at a good March, pattern doesn't look horrible. 

I say watch out around the Ides of March. The last 5 years we’ve had a couple of major snowstorms in the middle of March. The Superstorm of 93 was in the middle of March. 

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1 minute ago, CNY_WX said:

I say watch out around the Ides of March. The last 5 years we’ve had a couple of major snowstorms in the middle of March. 

We will need a pretty solid next 4-5 weeks just to reach the putrid snowfall levels of the past two winters. And this week looks lost already. 

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Just now, BuffaloWeather said:

Crazy because I think Bing/Alb set snowfall records last year? Syr has been missed in all directions. Just bad luck TBH. 

Yes, my winters here have been maddening with snow go all around us...as we all know. LOL. Last winter, it was all just to our south and east. This year it's been all just to our north and west.

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3 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said:

Yes, my winters here have been maddening with snow go all around us...as we all know. LOL. Last winter, it was all just to our south and east. This year it's been all just to our north and west.

2021 and 2020 combined are the warmest, least snowy on record for Syracuse. What's next? | WSTM (cnycentral.com)

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1 hour ago, TugHillMatt said:

Wow, just awful. They've had less than Syracuse the last 2 years?

Yup, at least according to the COOP..They recorded 52.2" two years ago and 59.2" last year.. So far I think they have around 53" this year..The farther north you go the more we rely on lake effect..The "big" event has been missing for several years now, back in 2010-2011 Pulaski had three 24+ just in that season but it's been a good 4-5 years since this area has had over a couple feet in an event.. Locations like Fulton can"survive" off dink and dunk  northerly flow events, we can not lol.. It's usually go big or go home and lately its been go home..

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4 minutes ago, wolfie09 said:

Yup, at least according to the COOP..They recorded 52.2" two years ago and 59.2" last year.. So far I think they have around 53" this year..The farther north you go the more we rely on lake effect..The "big" event has been missing for several years now, back in 2010-2011 Pulaski had three 24+ just in that season but it's been a good 4-5 years since this area has had over a couple feet in an event.. Locations like Fulton can"survive" off dink and dunk  northerly flow events, we can not lol It's usually go big or go home and lately it's been go home..

That's the best place to live though. Where you live now you can basically guarantee a massive LES event in the next 10 years. Its a question of when not if.

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46 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Crazy because I think Bing/Alb set snowfall records last year? Syr has been missed in all directions. Just bad luck TBH. 

I'd agree. Given the surrounding results and having a longer term view, I ascribe this 3 year run in the SizzleCuse area to random probabilities. And of course the Jonah moving locally. ;) I'd have to check my records but I seem to recall that of the first 10 winters here only 2, maybe 3, that were substantially below avg with the rest being at or a bit above avg.  

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