vortmax Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 1 minute ago, BuffaloWeather said: Erie you let me down this year. You had so much potential and only one really good event. Cold and dry was the motto. I'll see you next year. The sat over Ontario seems to be drying up. Some sunny breaks here now, but got a fluffy inch or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 29, 2022 Author Share Posted January 29, 2022 .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Big changes amongst the 29/12Z guidance packages in regards to p- type and the eventual track of the sfc low. Cold front eases into the region on Wednesday with a mix of rain/snow. After that it`s all up in the air to what happens. ECMWF guidance...has gone even colder with this update and has significantly pushed the track of the sfc low well to our ESE of the region. This would mean an all snow for the event but would also shift the heavier snowfall amounts almost out of our area. Canadian- NH...it too is colder but not quite as aggressive with the ESE push of the sfc low. GFS guidance...this is the warmer solution and has maintained the track of the sfc low through the Ohio Valley NE across Western and North Central NY. That said, the GFS track is also "NOT" climatologically favorable but it can`t be rule out either. The key to this event will likely be the timing and then eventual placement of the 850 hPa thermal boundary. Way too early to know exactly where it sets up or even stalls...if it does at all (see..ECMWF). So with this update (low confidence)...have again leaned on a blend of all solutions to get a middle of the road picture. Lots can and will likely change between now and the Wednesday evening through Thursday night time frame. Friday and beyond, it looks fairly straight forward with a colder air mass filtering into the region. There will also likely be some accumulating lake snows ESE of the lakes which then slowly diminish over the weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 BUF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 8 minutes ago, BGM Blizzard said: BUF Buffwx beat you by a minute. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 1 hour ago, BuffaloWeather said: CIPS analogs. I like the look http://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/DFHR.php?reg=MV&fhr=F132&rundt=2022012912&map=thbCOOP72 This would be a good one Love it...and that screwhole is NOT over the Sizzle...but rather Norwich or thereabouts. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 44 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: https://w1.weather.gov/data/obhistory/KBOS.html Derelict band. Exactly. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 Not even going to follow frontal nightmare till Monday night at the earliest. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 Had some fun digging out a cross section view of the snow pack with the kids. Can see two distinct icy layers in the pack. From the top down it’s 2.5” snow, .5” icy layer, 3.5” snow, 1.0” icy layer 2.5” snow. 10” total snow depth. Took a core and letting it melt down to see what the water content shows. 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 3 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said: How bad was it up there? I was living in Toronto at the time, so we could just got grazed, before it turned to rain. It was really bad in Kingston and Ottawa, though. People out of power for days. Toronto's big ice storm was on December 21, 2013. Without power for three days. Great photo opportunities, though. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 1 hour ago, BuffaloWeather said: Erie you let me down this year. You had so much potential and only one really good event. Cold and dry was the motto. I'll see you next year. Part of me wants this cold to keep going. I’ve been hawking the ice fisherman to see if they have started to venture out any further than the inner harbor yet. Had this crazy idea about taking a hike to the outer break wall. I don’t even know if it’s possible to safely walk out that far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 Icon looks like a blend of gfs and cmc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 7 minutes ago, tim123 said: Icon looks like a blend of gfs and cmc. Perfect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
champy Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 Provincetown webcam is the place to be. Looks like bonafide blizzard (a "death band" as it were): https://masswebcams.com/provincetown-webcams/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 hey @TugHillMatt ACY has just as much snow as syracuse now 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 2 hours ago, tim123 said: Notice all the top snowfalls are contemporary years. So much for global warming AGW was rebranded as Climate Change years ago cuz, muh, all changes, any change, can justify the theory...and alarmism. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 Gfs came south some. Big ice southern tier. Snow sleet rochester about a foot of snow probally couple inches of sleet verbatim. Lol lot of qpf 2 inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 5 minutes ago, tombo82685 said: hey @TugHillMatt ACY has just as much snow as syracuse now Thats quality trolling right there. 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 10 minutes ago, tim123 said: Gfs came south some. Big ice southern tier. Snow sleet rochester about a foot of snow probally couple inches of sleet verbatim. Lol lot of qpf 2 inches On the way to a more progressive look Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 Nice to have a solid idea of what’s coming this week!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 Just now, 96blizz said: Nice to have a solid idea of what’s coming this week!!! ..or is that a liquid? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 I can either take a boat ride or car ride and see me a footer Sunday lol Obviously if either of the rgem or 3k verified.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 18z gefs has more cutters in the spread vs 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 3 minutes ago, BGM Blizzard said: 18z gefs has more cutters in the spread vs 12z Of f*cking course it did. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 2 minutes ago, BGM Blizzard said: 18z gefs has more cutters vs 12z Gotta be a solid 75% cutter ratio. Hopefully the OP continues to lead. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 Ensembles have been not very helpful this year. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 They haven't been... BUT there is always one model or set that is NW when it comes to us getting rain/ice or snow.... and that NW model or set always ends up verifying. When was the last time we actually had the southernmost model actually come to fruition in our favor??? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 1 hour ago, Syrmax said: Thats quality trolling right there. teee heee 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 2 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: They haven't been... BUT there is always one model or set that is NW when it comes to us getting rain/ice or snow.... and that NW model or set always ends up verifying. When was the last time we actually had the southernmost model actually come to fruition in our favor??? get your shovel ready Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 2 minutes ago, tombo82685 said: get your shovel ready To shovel snow from around my car or to dig a hole for myself? 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 Just now, TugHillMatt said: To shovel snow from around my car or to dig a hole for myself? Nope, I think you will be shovelling 4+ from wed-friday system Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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