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Upstate/Eastern New York-Pattern Change Vs Tughill Curse?


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7 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Don Sutherland is still here I see his climate posts all the time. 

Yes he is. Very solid poster. He's always the bogeyman to beat in the ne.wx contests. Which, I might add, i did for Contest #2 this season, placing #1, for the WNY bomb.  I have a secret sauce in-house model. :)

I'm always amazed more ppl dont particiapte. Maybe its marketing. Its rigorous and covers 27 east coast stations but not SYR and BUF bc LES interference.

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2 hours ago, lakeeffectkid383 said:

NWS has 4-6” here tonight. We’ll see what happens. 

9933F211-D12C-464D-A6EA-619F624437E2.gif

Leaving the window open for an overachiever I guess…

chances for snow ramp up near the lakes due to sw low-level flow, convergence ahead of the front and sufficiently cold air for a lake response. Majority of moisture is below 10kft but lift in that layer is decent as seen by low-level omega toward northeast end of both lakes. Since the arctic front does not arrive until after 09z east of Lake Erie and toward 12z or even afterward east and southeast of Lake Ontario, low-level flow does not veer too quickly, allowing sw-w flow to stay locked in place. Though not many models show it outright, did increase QPF/snow some to east of Lake Erie especially into Southern Erie and over western Chautauqua county given potential that stronger band forming this evening into Metro Buffalo could stall out for a while over these areas.

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4 minutes ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said:

Leaving the window open for an overachiever I guess…

chances for snow ramp up near the lakes due to sw low-level flow, convergence ahead of the front and sufficiently cold air for a lake response. Majority of moisture is below 10kft but lift in that layer is decent as seen by low-level omega toward northeast end of both lakes. Since the arctic front does not arrive until after 09z east of Lake Erie and toward 12z or even afterward east and southeast of Lake Ontario, low-level flow does not veer too quickly, allowing sw-w flow to stay locked in place. Though not many models show it outright, did increase QPF/snow some to east of Lake Erie especially into Southern Erie and over western Chautauqua county given potential that stronger band forming this evening into Metro Buffalo could stall out for a while over these areas.

What a month

https://www.weather.gov/wrh/Climate?wfo=buf

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1 minute ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Climo always wins out. You guys are in for some huge years coming up. This year still isn't over, Ontario doesn't freeze. February can be a good LES month for you. 

I believe WNW flow is most common in February? We need a combo of Synoptic snowfall and lake effect snowfall. One of them alone can't get us to average.

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11 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said:

I believe WNW flow is most common in February? We need a combo of Synoptic snowfall and lake effect snowfall. One of them alone can't get us to average.

There is no common wind direction by month, it all depends on the upper level pattern. You can get NW winds in November or in February. Obviously its more likely to get colder air in Feb vs Nov. 

A couple years back there was a 2 week period of SW flow in February that hammered watertown with 2-3 LES events, but Buffalo didn't get hit because of a frozen lake. 

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