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Upstate/Eastern New York-Pattern Change Vs Tughill Curse?


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2 minutes ago, crossbowftw3 said:

NYC and at least western LI will definitely need some ticks to get into the game at this stage but up here we need some huge shifts 

Which as we know happens, remember March 2017 I think  and that low which dumped 2 feet plus in the Catskills originally had NYC in its crosshairs but low kept nudging west and west on each subsequent run

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Just now, BGM Blizzard said:

Euro did move east of 0z a bit with the track, but the precip shield extended further nw this run. 

Yeah, hammers ALB pretty good, but quick cutoff N and W of there.  That's the solution I'd be used to from the late 00's through the mid-10's where the Catskills through the Berks get hammered with the secondary band while we deal with fairy dust to the NW.

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1 hour ago, cleetussnow said:

I do feel like te pattern flip will stick starting next week, and we will be dealing with above normal temps for at least 2 weeks, and then looking at March with not much to show for in 

12Z Euro very juicy for NYC forum as well as obv NE.  I think I'm gonna chase this but not sure where yet.  Euro pounds Litchfield County in CT, which is a nice area and 90 mins less than SE CT for a drive. Boston another possibility. One of my friends is already assigned to work storm duty Sat night so that option looks iffy. 

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16 minutes ago, Syrmax said:

12Z Euro very juicy for NYC forum as well as obv NE.  I think I'm gonna chase this but not sure where yet.  Euro pounds Litchfield County in CT, which is a nice area and 90 mins less than SE CT for a drive. Boston another possibility. One of my friends is already assigned to work storm duty Sat night so that option looks iffy. 

I live down there (here) so I am hopeful for something.  I want to go to my VT camp but a) that may not be the jack, b) if I leave my wife to deal with 20 inches of snow, she will change the locks and arm herself.  

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29 minutes ago, Stash said:

Yeah, hammers ALB pretty good, but quick cutoff N and W of there.  That's the solution I'd be used to from the late 00's through the mid-10's where the Catskills through the Berks get hammered with the secondary band while we deal with fairy dust to the NW.

Where exactly are you again? I forget. Definitely rather be closer to Albany for this but it is what it is.

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9 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said:

Where exactly are you again? I forget. Definitely rather be closer to Albany for this but it is what it is.

Ballston Lake area.  It's a hamlet a few miles S/SW of Saratoga Springs and about 20-25 miles N/NW of Albany.  From the Amsterdam area, probably about 20 miles east as the crow flies.

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Lets see if the GFS is right once again or if the Euro will take the cake.

Honestly a 30-50 mile shift west on that Euro map and a lot more people are in business..but I fear the GFS and its formidable accuracy.


Nonetheless when I get home in Middletown we should have anohter 8-10 or 12 on the ground maybe?

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14 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said:

Lol...really, it's time for Syracuse down to Binghamton and over to Albany down to NYC to get clobbered. It's been way too long. We will probably be sniffing flurries yet again up here. Odds of you getting effects are much higher, obviously.

This storm's gone for CNY. ENY has a shot at 6+.  We will have to be content with our daily dose of 'eat your peas' T-2" snowfalls for the foreseeable future (except for the obligatory 3, 4 day torch that melts it all).

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I know it’s a pipe dream and I am keeping it in context but this is still 100 hrs out. There are several pieces of energy involved. I don’t think you can COMPLETELY rule out a scenario where this comes west 100-200 miles. Certainly CNY is still in the realm of possibilities. Same as a complete OTS miss is possible. 
Like Matt said, CLE didn’t think they had a chance in hell….Thursday 12z would be when the models start being really accurate. But they do seem to be locked in with a Boston Special as of now. I’ll still be watching. Of course. Lol

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13 minutes ago, Syrmax said:

This storm's gone for CNY. ENY has a shot at 6+.  We will have to be content with our daily dose of 'eat your peas' T-2" snowfalls for the foreseeable future (except for the obligatory 3, 4 day torch that melts it all).

I am absolutely puzzled by the synoptic drought CNY has been in the past several years. Every system has a way of screwing us. Perhaps Albany can get several feet this weekend and then we'll be on the bottom of the 5 Upstate cities. lol

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