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Upstate/Eastern New York-Pattern Change Vs Tughill Curse?


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Well it looks like we are headed for another dry spell lol Not much to get excited about over the next week or so..Next clipper is to far north, probably see a mix with limited LES on the back side..It's funny because we will probably finish the month with below average temps and below average snowfall lol Unless something decent pops up in the future..

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46 minutes ago, wolfie09 said:

Well it looks like we are headed for another dry spell lol Not much to get excited about over the next week or so..Next clipper is to far north, probably see a mix with limited LES on the back side..It's funny because we will probably finish the month with below average temps and below average snowfall lol Unless something decent pops up in the future..

Ha! Yup...it's this neverending repeat pattern we've been in for years.. cool down, then warms up and rains...cool down.

Perhaps we can get this to move far enough north on Thursday? Or will it take the suppressed southern track right after the one on Wednesday takes the north track?

ref1km_ptype.us_ne.png

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2 hours ago, wolfie09 said:

Well it looks like we are headed for another dry spell lol Not much to get excited about over the next week or so..Next clipper is to far north, probably see a mix with limited LES on the back side..It's funny because we will probably finish the month with below average temps and below average snowfall lol Unless something decent pops up in the future..

If you would have told me we'd be 2-3 degrees below normal and all of us wouldn't be above normal snowfall for the month I wouldn't believe you. Still 2 weeks left to get some LES going. It's going to be cold, hopefully we can get some clippers.

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55 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said:

I am quite perplexed on what it takes for CNY to get a decent synoptic snowfall. It's like we need the perfect thread-the-needle situation. These lows are too far south, but if they come even the slightest bit too far north for us to actually get affected, we warm. 

Trust me, I know how that feels up here in Toronto. This latest storm was very much the exception that proved the rule. We are not exposed to lake effect snows too often, while the lake serves to moderate our temperatures. Unlike cities like Ottawa and Montreal, we aren't in a valley location that can trap in the cold. We are very often in a snow-to-rain scenario here. 

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6 hours ago, TugHillMatt said:

Ha! Yup...it's this neverending repeat pattern we've been in for years.. cool down, then warms up and rains...cool down.

Perhaps we can get this to move far enough north on Thursday? Or will it take the suppressed southern track right after the one on Wednesday takes the north track?

ref1km_ptype.us_ne.png

I remember back in 2007-2008, there was very much a "northwest trend" on the models, kind of like what we saw with the recent storm. Maybe we can get that to happen with this storm too?

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2 minutes ago, Ottawa Blizzard said:

Trust me, I know how that feels up here in Toronto. This latest storm was very much the exception that proved the rule. We are not exposed to lake effect snows too often, while the lake serves to moderate our temperatures. Unlike cities like Ottawa and Montreal, we aren't in a valley location that can trap in the cold. We are very often in a snow-to-rain scenario here. 

Thanks for sharing. Yeah, Toronto would be a tough city for a winter lover...especially when Barrie right up the road gets walloped. I hope you have some great opportunities to enjoy your amazing snowfall this week!

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9 hours ago, Syrmax said:

No.  I'll just wait for the NAM and RGEM inside 48.  The rest is wanking.

you don't use global models when dealing with mixing, they won't see tiny thin layers of warm intrusion. I said that like 5 times in the thread.  Yes the nam got the warm air intrusion aloft right as it should with a meso, but in general was way way way way way  to warm. Ask tughill how his 1-3" of snow is doing. I would use rgem over nam in a heartbeat.

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25 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

you don't use global models when dealing with mixing, they won't see tiny thin layers of warm intrusion. I said that like 5 times in the thread.  Yes the nam got the warm air intrusion aloft right as it should with a meso, but in general was way way way way way  to warm. Ask tughill how his 1-3" of snow is doing. I would use rgem over nam in a heartbeat.

Actually, it wasn't far off. It had those couple inches at the beginning (which is what we got) and then several inches of lake enhanced (which is what we got). It was a little low on totals but very close. 

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1 hour ago, tombo82685 said:

you don't use global models when dealing with mixing, they won't see tiny thin layers of warm intrusion. I said that like 5 times in the thread.  Yes the nam got the warm air intrusion aloft right as it should with a meso, but in general was way way way way way  to warm. Ask tughill how his 1-3" of snow is doing. I would use rgem over nam in a heartbeat.

Perhaps I wasn't clear enough with my sarcasm. I understand all that.  Personally I was hoping meso's were wrong but the 800-850mb layer was above zero and that worked out generally in both models.  For this area. 

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