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January Banter 2022


George BM
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On 1/18/2022 at 11:04 AM, mattie g said:

Just one comment (among my others):

Talking about the "SS" always kind of bothers me.

"SS looks great. It really digs in and clobbers us." Like...doesn't that sound bad, or is it just my Central and Eastern European historian's sensibilities getting to me?

17 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Don’t totally sleep on the 25 either. There is a healthy SS wave ...

 

LAH176(L).jpg

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9 minutes ago, mattie g said:

I know it's so wrong, but every time read it...

I meant to reply to you yesterday, but work... I thought the same thing the first time I saw it. Since reading your post, it is all I think about now when I see it. :lol: 

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35 minutes ago, Always in Zugzwang said:

Never saw the musical version, but did see the movie with Mel Brooks and Gene Wilder...hilarious!

Maybe we should start abbreviating "southern stream" as "S/S" or "s/s" (and for northern, use "N/S" or "n/s")

I don't want to stop people from doing what they do, but if I were ruler of the world, I'd force people to do this.

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There's a dark side of me that actually finds it somewhat humorous that it's now looking all too possible that we are going to make it through this "primed and ready" period without any substantial snows. 

I told myself before when everyone was losing their minds about how incredible the mid/long range looked that it's a bad omen. 

Its just amazing to me how many times the talk in here is how great OR terrible the long range looks, then it arrives and it's not as advertised. Keeping with that same energy, if the talk starts to be that things look brutal for February, I wouldn't be surprised AT ALL if that's when we actually get a nice storm. Just the way things seem to go in here. 

It's a crapshoot in here with everyone trying to figure out what the setup is going to be in a week, yet somehow we talk seriously about 14+ days away. Give me a break. 

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32 minutes ago, Steve25 said:

There's a dark side of me that actually finds it somewhat humorous that it's now looking all too possible that we are going to make it through this "primed and ready" period without any substantial snows. 

I told myself before when everyone was losing their minds about how incredible the mid/long range looked that it's a bad omen. 

Its just amazing to me how many times the talk in here is how great OR terrible the long range looks, then it arrives and it's not as advertised. Keeping with that same energy, if the talk starts to be that things look brutal for February, I wouldn't be surprised AT ALL if that's when we actually get a nice storm. Just the way things seem to go in here. 

It's a crapshoot in here with everyone trying to figure out what the setup is going to be in a week, yet somehow we talk seriously about 14+ days away. Give me a break. 

Thanks for your input.

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1 hour ago, osfan24 said:

The king got mad at all the trash that was being talked about it. GFS definitely screwed up with the transition zone/timing on this one in a big way.

The Gfs love has been a bit exaggerated. It did get the Jan 3 storm right first but only by about 12 hours. The other guidance started trending north also just one cycle later. And the GFS way over compensated. 24-36 hours out it showed 6” for me and had 2-3” way up onto central PA.  I didn’t see a single flake. 
 

The Gfs was awful with the next wave. It was consistently showing .4-.6 qpf along 95. We had 15-1 ratios. That would have been 6-8” if it was right. The NAM and Euro were much much better with that storm. 

It wasn’t very good with the amplified inside runner either. Actually the ggem probably did best with locking on to the extreme solution early and sticking with it. Gfs teased with a couple runs of big snow then went too far west for a couple runs then back too far east.  And it looks to have been awful today.  It’s been better then the joke it used to be and it’s been better than the euro but it’s not been killing it every time like some seem to think  

The Euro criticism has been valid though. It’s really mishandled several NS SS interactions lately, which to be fair was a known weakness but not making excuses it’s been bad and anecdotally it seems more jumpy and prone to tangents in the medium range since the last major resolution upgrade years ago. It does do an impressive job for a global with meso scale features now but maybe it’s now got some of the high resolution CAMs issues that can become problematic with Synoptics at range. Not sure that was really a good trade. Maybe, and just speculation, having a short range euro at high resolution and a longer range lower resolution focused on Synoptics past 72 hours would be better. 

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7 minutes ago, AU74 said:

GFS has people speculating about a KU or Archambault event on 1/29. Can someone define these or link to a good reference?

January 29 is Kansas Day, btw, so KU checks out.

 

This is way more info than one needs…

https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/snow-and-ice/rsi/docs/kocin-and-uccellini-2004.pdf

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