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Tracking Jan 7 coastal storm. Lingering compression/flow velocity has not lent to consensus, but it seems at 30 hours out.. finally?


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How much of this postulating that the convection offshore is "weaker" than modeled is reality vs wishcasting at this point? Seems several hours too early to really be able to tell that. Also, you would think that a weaker offshore component would be reflected in the hourly HRRR runs, which is definitely is not at this moment.

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1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

That’s a sick sounding for BDL. 

Send some of those to 495/pike

 

 

7 minutes ago, DotRat_Wx said:

Cool piece of history that when quabbin was made they sunk entire towns filling the reservoir. I didn't know that for years and years. 

Yeah--it's a fascinating history of the lost towns of the Quabbin:  Dana, Greenwich, Enfield and Prescott.  I've read a few books on the history of it--really should be a movie.   Not a Deliverance movie--though that had to do with drowning a town, too.

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4 minutes ago, bishbish777 said:

How much of this postulating that the convection offshore is "weaker" than modeled is reality vs wishcasting at this point? Seems several hours too early to really be able to tell that. Also, you would think that a weaker offshore component would be reflected in the hourly HRRR runs, which is definitely is not at this moment.

It's right up there with the radar hallucinations.

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1 hour ago, tunafish said:

I thought MAUL was a descriptor of snow rates, but perhaps it's an acronym for something?

 

 

15 minutes ago, MaineJayhawk said:

I don't believe anybody answered you, Tuna.  MAUL is indeed an acronym .. Moist Absolutely Unstable Layer

It’s pretty self explanatory, just a truly unstable layer, usually thin but in winter events you don’t need much. The lift is enhanced in that unstable zone, and so if it’s collocated with the DGZ can really crank snowfall rates.

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3 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

 

It’s pretty self explanatory, just a truly unstable layer, usually thin but in winter events you don’t need much. The lift is enhanced in that unstable zone, and so if it’s collocated with the DGZ can really crank snowfall rates.

Also usually a sign that TSSN is possible

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4 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

 

It’s pretty self explanatory, just a truly unstable layer, usually thin but in winter events you don’t need much. The lift is enhanced in that unstable zone, and so if it’s collocated with the DGZ can really crank snowfall rates.

What indicates where the unstable layer is? Is it the dew vector zigging towards the temp on a sounding?

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1 minute ago, OceanStWx said:

Way more fun than a 96 hour lock. 

I’ve talked about this storm before (you prob were not in SNE for this as you would’ve been back in Ithaca still ripping beers)…but I remember getting convectively robbed in the Feb 28-Mar1, 2005 storm. 8-12” forecast turned into like 5-6” because this massive blob of convection formed just E of LI and tracks over PYM and the Cape…it was snow there and they got 5” per hour. Our old friend messenger got 13” in 3-4 hours and 16 total I think. While back in ORH we got robbed. 
 

That was obviously a negative bust for me but thankfully we got a positive one 12 days later on March 12, 2005 when a 3-5” forecast turned into 11” from a pseudo IVT coastal. 

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Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

What indicates where the unstable layer is? Is it the dew vector zigging towards the temp on a sounding?

It’s unstable based on the moist adiabatic lapse rate (6.5 C/km). So if the forecast sounding lapse rate is steeper than that it qualifies.

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Question guys? I know we don't like to use ensembles this close in, but what do we think about the GEFS really ramping up at this stage? Quite a few more really amped members and a very high mean compared to the last 15-20 runs, I know it usually follows its op run, do you guys think it's just noise following the op run, or showing the potential of this ramping up more at 00z?

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Just now, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Question guys? I know we don't like to use ensembles this close in, but what do we think about the GEFS really ramping up at this stage? Quite a few more really amped members and a very high mean compared to the last 15-20 runs, I know it usually follows its op run, do you guys think it's just noise following the op run, or showing the potential of this ramping up more at 00z?

isn't it also just spread decreasing?

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