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Tracking Jan 7 coastal storm. Lingering compression/flow velocity has not lent to consensus, but it seems at 30 hours out.. finally?


Typhoon Tip
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3 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said:

I'm interested in what kind of early push of WAA we get, how far north it comes, and how vigorous.  Scott has referred to an initial weenie band, and I hope that makes it up into Central NH.

Well the best WAA push will likely shoot through SNE, like inside 95. This becomes a bit of a pivoting band (I would pin it somewhere between 95 and 495), but is moving so quickly that lollis around 10” sounds about right. 

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2 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

Well the best WAA push will likely shoot through SNE, like inside 95. This becomes a bit of a pivoting band (I would pin it somewhere between 95 and 495), but is moving so quickly that lollis around 10” sounds about right. 

What are you guys thinking about the upslope potential? GFS looked decent for 3-4” or so. 

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1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

 

You don't even need fancy fronto maps to see where pound town is below. Look at that inflow at 50-60kts slam into the s coast with lighter winds to the north. There is your front and convergence. Air rises. You snow.

 

 

image.png.d8c7e2e5c74a9abc8edf385110f1655a.png

Thanks man. Good to see the visual. Do you look at other levels or can we gather a decent estimate from h7 only?

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21 minutes ago, UnitedWx said:

Perfect, I despise being in the sun! I have all my life.

Yup.  Only missed the Sun once in my life, 2005/6 or so when we had cloud cover for 9 days.  Me and Sun don’t get along in Any Capacity at all.  ESPECIALLY melting Snow.
 

Hence the damned “Why does Cory Always wear Sunglasses B)“  

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2 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

The NAM's 12z solution has Logan with a 9kt NE wind nearing max of this -

9 kts.   Oooh... 

I just the more I waste life looking at this thing the more and more it is speed contaminated-robbed of life. 

By the way, the reason why the NAM keeps "chasing convection" is because of the flat bias to the flow immediately downstream of the S/W we've been tracking.  More short wave ridge curvature in that area would conserve vorticity inward - think of it as negatively interfering those chase points, while postively interfering back west, and that's the feed-back mechanism at work. 

This is what I'm watching on the nowcast...I'd be lying if I said I didn't see some interesting trends on where the low pressure is located off the SE coast right now vs modeling, and some of the short-term guidance corrections I'm watching.

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Just now, JC-CT said:

This is what I'm watching on the nowcast...I'd be lying if I said I didn't see some interesting trends on where the low pressure is located off the SE coast right now vs modeling, and some of the short-term guidance corrections I'm watching.

Mind sharing any of your observations? Sounds fascinating 

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1 minute ago, JC-CT said:

This is what I'm watching on the nowcast...I'd be lying if I said I didn't see some interesting trends on where the low pressure is located off the SE coast right now vs modeling, and some of the short-term guidance corrections I'm watching.

doesnt look as good as the models showed in my opinion.. but might mean nothing for us anyways

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25 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

Well the best WAA push will likely shoot through SNE, like inside 95. This becomes a bit of a pivoting band (I would pin it somewhere between 95 and 495), but is moving so quickly that lollis around 10” sounds about right. 

Thank you Chris.  Sometimes there are those early and very far north weenie bands, but that is just a weenie fantasy.

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24 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Thanks man. Good to see the visual. Do you look at other levels or can we gather a decent estimate from h7 only?

Well if it's one of those SWFE deals, H7 might be warm, so I would look a little higher. Unfortunately many sites don't show 600mb, so you'd have to interpolate between 700 and 500. 850mb level usually is a good way to see if you have strong inflow and warm air advection. Many times that level is below the ideal snow growth area, unless it's very cold out. Sometimes just north of the 850mb warm front has heavy precip.

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2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Well if it's one of those SWFE deals, H7 might be warm, so I would look a little higher. Unfortunately many sites don't show 600mb, so you'd have to interpolate between 700 and 500. 850mb level usually is a good way to see if you have strong inflow and warm air advection. Many times that level is below the ideal snow growth area, unless it's very cold out. Sometimes just north of the 850mb warm front has heavy precip.

Surface matters sometimes, too, west of the cf...not as extreme, obviously.

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Ah ... okay -

"SENIOR DUTY METEOROLOGIST NWS ALERT ADMINISTRATIVE MESSAGE NWS NCEP CENTRAL OPERATIONS COLLEGE PARK MD

0945Z THU JAN 06 2022

...CPRK DATA CENTER DISK STORAGE RECOVERY - UPDATE...

-Rebuild of the data storage in College Park continues. ETR is this afternoon.

Current Impacts:

-WPC, OPC, and CPC's Intranet Sites and Compute farms are down, which is causing their products to be delayed and/or degraded.

-FTPPRD is currently down.

Shirey/SDM/NCO/NCEP"

I was wondering why my go-to products were not updating... 

We did a study back in the 1990s/college, ... when coms -related modeling delays took place, there was - believe it or not - a rather high correlation coefficients to actually getting nailed by a storm.  We thought it was a gag analysis but much to our chagrin - It was pretty remarkable...

Now, obviously.. modeling as a tool assist in prognostic weather efforts, was at the time what ... 25 years old?  And the internet was less reliable/redundant.  Traffic on those particular channels - but we're talking DIFAX charts ( no clue what that means to present generations)

Still, if there was anything on the charts that could feasibly becomes a threat aspect back then, one could almost feel good about forecasting an event based upon transmission failures..  LOL.

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