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Tracking Jan 7 coastal storm. Lingering compression/flow velocity has not lent to consensus, but it seems at 30 hours out.. finally?

Typhoon Tip

By Typhoon Tip,
in New England

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RUNNAWAYICEBERG

RUNNAWAYICEBERG

Posted
Posted
39 minutes ago, George001 said:

My forecast:

8–12 in all of eastern mass with an isolated 12-15 in heaviest banding. The higher end will probably be NW up into central and northern Mass, lower end in my area. In my opinion the models are underestimating the strength of the low.

We appreciate Jimmy’s spirit living through you so we wish you good health and happiness…but, dude. 

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Baroclinic Zone
Baroclinic Zone

This should cover it.

HoarfrostHubb
HoarfrostHubb

All those cars I see in the morning must be going to the pot shops

CoastalWx
CoastalWx

You don't even need fancy fronto maps to see where pound town is below. Look at that inflow at 50-60kts slam into the s coast with lighter winds to the north. There is your front and convergence. Air

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wxsniss

wxsniss

Posted
Posted
57 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I noticed that on the nam. It starts out as a really tiny area of precip. I was wondering if the moisture to the east was interfering with it.

Yeah, maybe it's real and we will have a disjointed system...  otherwise that 18z RGEM would have been a much bigger hit with that track.

From current guidance (again heavily weighing that median on EPS which looks to be over/west of BM... and given the receding NAO and other synoptics discussed), I'm anticipating a trend northwest on op guidance in the next 24 hours. 

Might even see an abrupt jump with sampling tonight. 

3-6/4-8 kind of range for eSNE is probably a good place to start... at some point, we'd need to see the bigger hits actually depicted on the trusted models to go higher.

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

Here's H5 on the RGEM....you can see how nicely the vort is curling up into ACY area (and eventually LI) and it's tight enough that there's good downstream ridging....it's a bit more efficient in that department than the 18z NAM which is why the RGEM was a big hit and the NAM was more of a moderate event.

image.png.d483bcef1f68301f8e841af7e7ddd936.png

see anything familiar ?

 

Click Image for larger 500-mb Map

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HoarfrostHubb

HoarfrostHubb

Posted
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8 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

Yesterday my tongue in cheek call for here was C - 1” so Harvey’s forecast isn’t too far from that.  Lol
Yes, I know that’s a  pessimistic call for this area but I am pretty far northwest, so I can’t afford any trend East overnight. 
I was really hoping to pull at least 2”-4” from this storm so hopefully we get the tug West tonight.  

Your initial idea is possible.  I will try to be optimistic for a westward ho 

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HIPPYVALLEY

HIPPYVALLEY

Posted
Posted
Just now, CoastalWx said:

I just don't see how one complains this winter. Enjoy what falls. This was always the "gravy" period anyhow. 

It’s just been tough because we’ve had a total of 4” since Nov 1st, spread over multiple events, there’s no ice on the ponds and Berkshire East has about 4 trails open. 
I’m sure it can get better in a hurry but it’s been a tough start.

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Nice to have the bad trend at least interrupted a bit...I think that will continue tonight. 

You know... just gonna say it. Was keeping it to myself because ... heh, it's as if we need yet another analysis/'what if' thrown into this ambrosia .. right?

But, I thought today was all good signs frankly.  The  evidence, I haven't yet snarked the whole board and the Trump administration to hell yet -

I thought today was favorable because there is virtually no wave length room, when considering the R-wave construct from the Aleu ... all the way around to NS, that really allows this to "escape" east.  It really has to turn NE leaving the coast, and that's a favorable position - the EPS looked whack and 12z frankly. 

The models were stretching the flow today ...perhaps too far is what it looked like to me.  Now, we've seen weird things - just weight probabilities against science/experience here.

Meanwhile, the overnight runs ( save the Euro admittedly ) got a little too close for comfort.  We are/were still looking for the vortex split/ejection over the N/A space into this morning. Yet, some high res models were already too close to the coast for comfort.  I think it would be nice to get a snowfall here.  We've been patient as winter enthusiasts...  

I said yesterday, if the ridge amps in the west, this could dig and end up over Buffalo.  I think that is unlikely at this point, granted - but ending up over Barre Falls damn and recreational park is still in the hunt... no thx -

This shift east today is really against the pathway of least resistance, a bit less likely.. Should end up being a Del Mar quasi Miller B initiation, to about 73 W over the 40th - but that does still allow elasticity by a little.  There are not railways in the sky -

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JC-CT

JC-CT

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Posted
Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

So silly the whiff believers. Acting like you haven’t seen this rodeo before. 4-8” for most everyone in SNE and likely a lot of 9-10” 

Whiff believers..........................[nobody that exists to Kevin]......................start at 9-10" and go up from there

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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Not making any operational version judgements on performance until we are fully past vortex disintegration and subsequent uptake of the S/W ejection down stream into the denser physical sounding array.  That's begins 00z and really gets covered overnight... 

prior to that ...perhaps unusual to be more ens mean reliant at D4 but it is what it is... and this 18z shows a fair amount of spread still on the western side of this thing, with smattering of deep solutions close enough to really wallop the eastern half

 

gfs-ememb_lowlocs_us_13.png

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  • Typhoon Tip changed the title to Tracking Jan 7 coastal storm. Lingering compression/flow velocity has not lent to consensus, but it seems at 30 hours out.. finally?
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