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Tracking Jan 7 coastal storm. Lingering compression/flow velocity has not lent to consensus, but it seems at 30 hours out.. finally?


Typhoon Tip
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1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Ah ... again, I wanna stress for those that really kinda sorta 'need to see these model runs deliver'    ... best not to focus or 'look' rather for details at this range.  I mean, 7 days - this is a favorable synoptic super structure evolving, that has the benefit of an Archembaultian system embedded -    it's true that a storm is higher confidence.  I would say 'favors' cold p-types, but that is by no means a declarative.   

I guess my point is, your going to get ticked off waiting run to run for ticks.  LOL

Isn't that what we do here for fun?

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4 hours ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

Storm will be there, what’s up in the air is whether or not it will be wet or white.  Tip makes no reference to precip type in his heading.

“Cold p-type”. what do you think he is implying?

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13 minutes ago, wdrag said:

Happy New Year to every member that posts here!  Am not threading anything yet for Jan 2-3, Jan 6-7  The reasons are in the graphics below. The uncertainties are largest in the gradients.  If interested, click each for greater clarity.

The 06z/1 raw 10 to 1 snow ratio'd operational EC and GDPS (Canadian). Both are nada and as is the NAM (not attached).  My guess is a few ensemble members of the EPS/GEFS have a touch of snow in our forum but overwhelmingly it's unlikely. Saw the 06z GFS northern fringe but my guess on that is that not enough dry air is infused to dry out the northern fringe to virga.  So,  until the Canadian and NAM move north, I just cant get excited.

Jan 6-7 is of more interest to me, at least I95 itself northwestward.  Anything can happen at this point but it does look like a sizable wintery qpf event is coming to the northeast. How close it gets to NYC... unknown but I've alerted my I84 friends to monitor future forecasts for travel Friday morning.  Click the graphics if interested for greater clarity.  06z/1 EC OP, 06z /1 GGEM=GDPS OP, NWS 09z/1 Ensemble prob of 1"---all these focused on Sunday night-Monday morning, and then the late Thu-Fri ensemble chance of 3" of snow.

 

Screen Shot 2022-01-01 at 7.18.14 AM.png

Screen Shot 2022-01-01 at 7.24.40 AM.png

Screen Shot 2022-01-01 at 6.43.29 AM.png

Screen Shot 2022-01-01 at 6.38.42 AM.png


We alert 

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17 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said:

I think the 7th is borderline even for here.  If that low develops SW won't it flood the mid levels with warm air given a lack of a high to hold in cold air?

It’ll probably look quite a bit different come go-time. Euro last night was good for us…but it really doesn’t matter. Moral of the story is there’s a storm threat in that time frame. Deets TBD.

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  • Typhoon Tip changed the title to Tracking Jan 7 coastal storm. Lingering compression/flow velocity has not lent to consensus, but it seems at 30 hours out.. finally?
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