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TIMS model verification, December 31, 2021 - January 3, 2022


Holston_River_Rambler
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I could be 100% wrong about this, but it looks like as the energy is starting to close off and tilt more neutral, the TROWAL feature is starting to develop in West TN:

giphy.gif?cid=790b7611c882aa948881e04193

I think it is that small area of precip. starting to build back barely west of main moisture, just south of Jackson, TN.

 

You can also see the back edge of the lift the shortwave is producing (colder cloud tops/ darker purples over the same area of west TN) turning almost south to north on satellite (and maybe ever so slightly SSE to NNW):

giphy.gif?cid=790b7611e7eb7c97802d9ac9c2

 

 

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Just now, PowellVolz said:

Good chance the Plateau holds that Arctic air up some. Maybe since there’s a wave hooked to it, the front will maintain speed?


.

I think the dynamics of the system will help more in the valley as it starts to really deepen east of the Apps. 

But on he subject of arctic air, you can see the rain snow line of correlation coefficient moving NW to SE. the green line as it moves from Bowling Green/ Portland and Glasgow, KY to Lafayette, TN. 

giphy.gif?cid=790b7611299c1f93124e7c15b0

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15 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

I think the dynamics of the system will help more in the valley as it starts to really deepen east of the Apps. 

But on he subject of arctic air, you can see the rain snow line of correlation coefficient moving NW to SE. the green line as it moves from Bowling Green/ Portland and Glasgow, KY to Lafayette, TN. 

giphy.gif?cid=790b7611299c1f93124e7c15b0

Its been closed off but its a broad area,mesoscale shows it tighten up the next four hrs

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Areas affected...parts of the southern Appalachians and Southeast Concerning...Heavy snow Valid 030019Z - 030515Z SUMMARY...Periods of moderate to heavy snow will likely develop through this evening as temperatures begin to drop and forcing for ascent strengthens markedly. Snow rates of 0.5-1 in/hour will be possible with the strongest bands. Brief periods of mixed precipitation including sleet and freezing rain may also develop. DISCUSSION...As of 0015 UTC, a potent mid-level shortwave trough was analyzed via WV imagery across the eastern ARKLATEX. To the south, a 90-100 kt jet streak was beginning to round the base of the positively tilted trough moving onshore across southwestern LA. A broad area of low pressure at the surface was centered across western GA with an expanding precipitation shield noted to the northwest of the low and ongoing convection. Recent surface observations across southwestern TN and northern MS have shown an increase in the occurrence of snow and mixed precipitation types over the last few hours with diurnal cooling taking place. Strong height falls from the approaching trough are forecast to advect eastward over the next few hours as the trough becomes negatively tilted, augmenting surface mass response and deepening the aforementioned surface low. Low-level cold advection should follow suit, accelerating the change over, first to mixed precipitation, and then quickly to snow of parts of the expanding precipitation field. While temperatures remain mild, the rain/snow line should move eastward with time concurrent with increasing precipitation rates from strengthening 850-700 frontogenesis and the development of convective bands owing to subtle buoyancy aloft. Regional soundings show favorable profiles for periods of moderate and occasional heavy snow expanding northeastward with time from northern AL into eastern/central TN along the western slopes of the southern Appalachians. Snow rates of 0.5 to 0.75 in/hr will be possible for several hours resulting in reduced visibility and potential travel issues. Localized 1+ in/hr rates may also be possible beneath the heavier convective elements or near local topography favorable for orographic enhancement. Snow may linger for a few hours overnight before forcing and dry air to the west shift precipitation northeastward.

mcd0023.gif

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