Sciascia Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 Here comes the beginning of the 00z run parade Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 3 minutes ago, Sciascia said: Here comes the beginning of the 00z run parade when it disappears on tonight's NAM please don't panic. Of course, that's usually within 24 hours not this far out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 31, 2021 Author Share Posted December 31, 2021 HRRR is in the real world in terms of snowfall axis placement. Also hits the LE quite well in NE IL/SE WI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 You can’t really ask for more than the 00z HRRR. Good for everyone really. Still thinking the HRRR is liable to be too far north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 Just now, Chicago Storm said: HRRR is in the real world in terms of snowfall axis placement. Also hits the LE quite well in NE IL/SE WI. I thought it might come back south some. It’s still a somewhat northward outlier against the rest of guidance. And knowing CAMs tend to be a bit amped in their longer ranges makes me skeptical. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 I’ve been hurt too much Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 31, 2021 Author Share Posted December 31, 2021 1 minute ago, hlcater said: I thought it might come back south some. It’s still a somewhat northward outlier against the rest of guidance. And knowing CAMs tend to be a bit amped in their longer ranges makes me skeptical. It's really not all that far north. Biggest thing is the very sharp gradient on either side of the axis. There are some counties (Small ones at that) that you go from a DAB to 7" in opposite ends of the given county. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChiTownSnow Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 5 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: HRRR is in the real world in terms of snowfall axis placement. Also hits the LE quite well in NE IL/SE WI. Seems like HRRR timing is much faster/earlier? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 31, 2021 Author Share Posted December 31, 2021 Just now, ChiTownSnow said: Seems like HRRR timing is much faster/earlier? Very much so, was just looking at that actually. Snow rapidly overspread the area by 13-14z and best snows would be over by 2z ...though it would still snow beyond that point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 NAM cuts down on QPF a bit away from SLP, expectedly, but still a very solid hit. Going to ride the 4-8” call but suspect that we’re likely to verify on the higher end of that. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 The 00z NAM is quite a bit different for Iowa than the 12z... has really come back to Earth. The 3k NAM is drier for Chicagoland. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Natester Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 0z ICON is an easy toss, it's just like the 18z run, very weak and way south. 0z RGEM just a wee bit south from last run. I'm sure we'll get more than 4 inches of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChiTownSnow Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 Overall a pretty solid hit for Chicago on 00z NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 40 minutes ago, mimillman said: NAM cuts down on QPF a bit away from SLP, expectedly, but still a very solid hit. Going to ride the 4-8” call but suspect that we’re likely to verify on the higher end of that. Agree. I'd actually give roughly 50/50 odds of somebody pulling 12", especially near the lake. Again, not the greatest setup in terms of thermodynamics/inversion heights, but it goes on for a number of hours. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 RGEM bit drier in the metro but the lakeshore is saved by a pronounced LE band, which I feel like the RGEM always overdoes? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Natester Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 0z GFS a tick northward from 18z and juicier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Natester Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 0z GFS snow totals. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner88 Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 1 minute ago, Natester said: 0z GFS snow totals. I can dig it, lot better than getting 2" with that hellish north-side gradient Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 About locked in on a 6-10” event for greater Chicagoland. Going to be nice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Natester Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 3z RAP has insane snow totals from SE Nebraska to Chicagoland. However, the RAP still wants to ramp the system up. Possibly toss. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sciascia Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 9 minutes ago, Natester said: 3z RAP has insane snow totals from SE Nebraska to Chicagoland. However, the RAP still wants to ramp the system up. Possibly toss. Strictly for viewing, not necessarily for believing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 1 minute ago, Sciascia said: Strictly for viewing, not necessarily for believing. That would beat GHD2 here with that 16" lol. From here on out I'm ridin the RAP. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 2 minutes ago, cyclone77 said: That would beat GHD2 here with that 16" lol. From here on out I'm ridin the RAP. Bad choice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Natester Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 4 minutes ago, cyclone77 said: That would beat GHD2 here with that 16" lol. From here on out I'm ridin the RAP. You'll likely be disappointed and get only half of what the RAP projects. Also, 0z GEM basically unchanged in snow placement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheNiño Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 7 minutes ago, Sciascia said: Strictly for viewing, not necessarily for believing. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 31, 2021 Author Share Posted December 31, 2021 2 minutes ago, Natester said: You'll likely be disappointed and get only half of what the RAP projects. Also, 0z GEM basically unchanged in snow placement. GEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 With the exception of the usual overamplified suspects, 00z runs have largely been improvements to the 18z runs. Like what I see and hopefully continue these trends tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 0z GFS snow totals.A lot of broadcast mets in S. WI (including those at my employer) being bearish on this one, calling for 3" or less in Madison, and some 1" or less. Of course, those forecasts were made before the 00Z runs were available, but the possibility for at least modest shifts back NW was always on the table. @madwx Sent from my Pixel 4a using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 You guys suck *said with love and hope you get buried (except Joe)* 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 New Euro looks largely the same. Still 30+hrs for more tweaks, but the QC should be locked in for a nice 5-7" event. If ratios end up as high as some of the kuchera outputs then more than 7" is definitely possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now