Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,508
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    joxey
    Newest Member
    joxey
    Joined

Tn Valley Severe Weather


jaxjagman
 Share

Recommended Posts

6 minutes ago, John1122 said:

Not sure how they didn't issue a tornado watch here. 

This was posted 25 minutes ago.

 

 

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

 

   SUMMARY...A tornado watch may be needed across eastern Tennessee and

   potentially into far western North Carolina.

 

   DISCUSSION...A supercell has moved east of watch 79 across eastern

   Tennessee. Additional storm development is questionable as

   widespread thunderstorms have developed to the west with anvil

   debris across much of eastern Tennessee. However, at least scattered

   supercell development remains possible through early evening. The

   MRX VWP currently shows less than 100 m2/s2 0-1km SRH with the

   stronger low-level jet to the west. This wind profile is expected to

   increase after 00Z as this low-level jet slowly moves east. A

   tornado watch will eventually be needed this evening, as low-level

   shear and storm coverage increases.

mcd0355.png

  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Monday morning got out of the gate quickly, but the afternoon / evening underperformed forecasts in our region.

On 4/1/2024 at 1:20 PM, nrgjeff said:

I suppose April climo they gotta drop the 10% tor for Tuesday. NAM suite is quite linear and positive tilt. LLJ never restrengthens or backs late Tuesday. Now the Globals do so, and I figure CAMs like RRFS and HRRR do too; because, they go line of pearls.

My gut says the NAM but it has a cool bias. That said the NAM can sniff out LLJ failures. So if you get anxious about severe, don't fret just yet. If you chase, it's conditional. I'll be tied down with work so no chase plans.

NAM sniffed out the issue Monday afternoon and evening. LLJ didn't ever recover here. It did Ohio Valley, enough for them to overcome our cutting off moisture. Then the Deep South had some classic late evening. Severe is often a headache to forecast outside the Plains.

Couple tor reports North Alabama. Of course the Tennessee Cumberland Plateau got its obligatory tor. I believe the elevation, while staying relatively flat, gets greater low level flow. 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...