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Tn Valley Severe Weather


jaxjagman
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5 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

Anyone know how things are going on the west slope of the Smokies this AM?  I am hoping they got plenty of rain.

I heard a brief report but can't remember all of it.  Said something along the lines of higher humidity and dewpoints helped slow the spread some, but still struggling for containment.  Interviewed a lady who lives in Wears Valley said the tourists and rubberneckers need to get out of the way so EMS can get to the fires.

 

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Incredible winds here last night. Schools had to close due to downed trees blocking so many roads. Just before it started raining the wind got up towards 80+ and it was an extended gust that lasted several minutes. I hadn't heard anything like that since we got a massive downburst back in the 1990s. A friend who moved here from Florida said "if you've never been in a hurricane, that was what it feels like."

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Day 3 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0226 AM CDT Mon Apr 04 2022

   Valid 061200Z - 071200Z

   ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
   OF CENTRAL/NORTHERN AL...NORTHERN GA...UPSTATE SC...FAR WESTERN NC
   AND SOUTHEAST TN...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Severe thunderstorms capable of producing swaths of damaging gusts
   and tornadoes are expected across a broad area from the Deep South
   into the southern Appalachians on Wednesday. The greatest risk area
   will encompass portions of central/northern Alabama into southeast
   Tennessee, far western North Carolina/South Carolina and northern
   Georgia.

   ...Deep South to the Southern Appalachians...

   A closed upper low and its attendant trough will deep and shift east
   from the Plains to the Upper Great Lakes/MS Valley on Wednesday.
   This will maintain deep-layer southwesterly flow across the Gulf
   Coast states into the Mid-Atlantic, resulting in a broad
   warm-advection regime ahead of the trough. A strong low-level jet
   around 40-50 kt will be somewhat more focused across parts of MS/AL
   into the Carolinas ahead of a strong surface cold front. This
   surface front is forecast to extend roughly from southeast MO into
   east-central TX Wednesday morning, while a warm front extends from
   the southern TN border into Upstate SC. The warm front should lift
   north into NC and possibly southern VA late in the period while the
   cold front sweeps eastward across the Mid-South and central Gulf
   Coast. 

   A seasonally moist boundary layer will exist ahead of the surging
   cold front, with surface dewpoints in the mid/upper 60s across much
   of the southern/southeastern U.S. This will aid in moderate
   destabilization of a strongly sheared environment. Deep-layer flow
   largely parallel to the surface cold front will support linear
   convection, with another QLCS sweeping east across the southern U.S.
   likely. A swath of damaging gusts will accompany organized
   convection through the daytime across parts of MS/AL/TN/GA and into
   the southern Appalachians, the Carolinas and southern GA/northern FL
   during the evening/overnight. While damaging gusts appear the most
   likely hazard at this time, tornado potential will exist as well,
   both within the QLCS/mesovortices and in any semi-discrete
   convection should it develop ahead of the line.

   ..Leitman.. 04/04/2022
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The cluster of storms shown by the HRRR in middle Alabama to Georgia hasn’t developed. The HRRR showed limited instability in Tennessee. The 3k NAM doesn’t show those storms south of Tennessee and has much greater instability in our area. DP in Knoxville is low to mid 60’s after starting out mid 40’s.


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I'm way behind. Drew up this when Mesoscale Discussion 422 came out. Then got sidetracked. Still worth comparing MD #422 with the old image. More notes below image, but first...

However now MD #424 is more relevant to us. Feels like they'll go severe, not tornado watch. 

Apr-6-2022.PNG.5c658812d06d2c3fb624107607a89663.PNG

SPC put out a tornado watch for that southern boundary intersection. As expected went on gravity wave (yellow) intersection with maritime / yesterday outflow (dark green). Local enhanced SRH is almost Plains like. 

Our MD 424 is for the intersection of the traditional cool wedge (light green) and pre-frontal trough (light blue). It is more what I look for in the South. However, no LLJ saves Tennessee from much tornado action.

I draw the cold front in dark blue, but it's less of a factor. Synoptic warm front is north of Kentucky. All boundaries were cross checked visible satellite and surface chart at the time.

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I'm way behind. Drew up this when Mesoscale Discussion 422 came out. Then got sidetracked. Still worth comparing MD #422 with the old image. More notes below image, but first...

However now MD #424 is more relevant to us. Feels like they'll go severe, not tornado watch. 
Apr-6-2022.PNG.5c658812d06d2c3fb624107607a89663.PNG
SPC put out a tornado watch for that southern boundary intersection. As expected went on gravity wave (yellow) intersection with maritime / yesterday outflow (dark green). Local enhanced SRH is almost Plains like. 

Our MD 424 is for the intersection of the traditional cool wedge (light green) and pre-frontal trough (light blue). It is more what I look for in the South. However, no LLJ saves Tennessee from much tornado action.
I draw the cold front in dark blue, but it's less of a factor. Synoptic warm front is north of Kentucky. All boundaries were cross checked visible satellite and surface chart at the time.

Maybe I read you wrong but you’re thinking the tornado action will be south of the dark green and ETn deals with just winds and hail? LLJ is too far south for us?


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MRX AFD:

Discussion:

As of 3PM ET temperatures were warming into the low to mid 70`s
underneath partly cloudy skies. Radar shows a line of showers and
a few thunderstorms developing across middle Tennessee associated
with an approaching front. SW low level flow continues to advect
a moist and increasingly unstable airmass northward this afternoon
with RAP analyzing MLCAPE`s between 500-1000j/kg across the
central/southern valley and plateau areas. The front will continue
to progress east this afternoon with moisture advection
continuing. Expect a gradual increase in storm coverage and
intensity over the next couple of hours as this current activity
moves into a more favorable airmass situated across east
Tennessee. Shear will be more than adequate for updraft
organization as deep layer shear increases to 40-50 knots (higher
north of I-40). Shear vectors oriented just off the boundary will
promote at least some discrete convection and line/bowing segments
into the evening. While damaging winds will continue to be the
main hazard, the threat of tornadoes certainly shouldn`t be
ignored. Shear within the lowest 1km between 15-25 knots along
with favorable LCL heights will maintain the tornado risk through
the evening, especially south of I-40 where better instability
will be located. Additionally, any rotating updrafts will contain
a risk of large hail.
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