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1 hour ago, EasternLI said:

This makes sense. I've noticed too they can be very good at rolling a pattern forward. As long as there isn't an emerging factor that could change the equation. The study I mentioned also stated that internal variability within a pattern was an issue. 

Yeah, it’s a big challenge trying to figure out the week 3-4 forecast based on week 1-2. Analog roll forwards beyond week 2 can be very low skill. Older analogs from colder eras haven’t been working very well in our post 2010 warmer climate. There is also a small sample size issue since many patterns have unique features that don’t repeat in the same ways. Plus we have random events like wave breaks which analogs won’t work for. Maybe machine learning will be the next big leap forward in long range forecasting. I think that’s what the ECWMF is researching for improvement to the weeklies and seasonal forecasts.

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1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

Models shouldn't go out past 150. It toys with people's  emotions and they are erratic.

Agree.  When it's this far out there is no certainty to the forecast.  It's just something to keep an eye on. We know that even short range forecasts are not always certain.

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5 hours ago, Allsnow said:

Yeah, it’s convection (like thunderstorms in the summer) hard to really predict so far in the future. I think we go 7-(weakly) 8-1-2


It probably gets back in 3/4 to start February unfortunately 

If there’s no big SSW in January and that’s indeed what happens, February will be a furnace 

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4 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

If there’s no big SSW in January and that’s indeed what happens, February will be a furnace 

I think mid Jan to Feb 15-20 will likely torch. If blocking hangs around then it'll be cooler. Best snowfall opportunities will be 1st half of Jan and then late winter. 

Good chance that blocking showing up now will show its face again and the -PNA won't be as damaging late winter due to wavelength changes. In fact a -PNA after Feb 20 is more favorable than a +PNA for snows here.

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