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At this point in time, no matter what run to run solution comes up, as it would be with any signal a week or more away, we just wait, watch, and track.  Let's see how the upper air shapes up to support a solution one way or the other.  I love Forky's suggestion to treat every OP run solution this far out as an ensemble member. 

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2 minutes ago, lee59 said:

This is not the first time a model or models show a 970 low off our shores a week or 10 days out. So far none have materialized.

Agree. Also would like to see two models actually show a hit during the same cycle to feel this thing has more of a chance. I will say both of the last two storms the majority of models did not look favorable by inside 5 days I think by Monday we may have a better sense of where this is going. 

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1 minute ago, White Gorilla said:

At this point in time, no matter what run to run solution comes up, as it would be with any signal a week or more away, we just wait, watch, and track.  Let's see how the upper air shapes up to support a solution one way or the other.  I love Forky's suggestion to treat every OP run solution this far out as an ensemble member. 

Agree. This is the smart approach. Until we get much closer. It's still an eternity out there right now. 

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7 minutes ago, Nibor said:

We’d all mourn snowman19 but I wouldn’t call it “mass”

Good evening Nibor. Just like the snowball always trying for a frozen chance in hell …. S19 will most certainly be back, to lend his warmth to the forums cold season. As always ….

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23 minutes ago, lee59 said:

This is not the first time a model or models show a 970 low off our shores a week or 10 days out. So far none have materialized.

Well now it's 6.5 days out so we should be good ;) 

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29 minutes ago, rclab said:

Good evening Nibor. Just like the snowball always trying for a frozen chance in hell …. S19 will most certainly be back, to lend his warmth to the forums cold season. As always ….

xhMgTsB.gif

Actual footage of our favorite warm-monger lending the warmth. 

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A quiet weekend will conclude with another fair but cool day tomorrow. Next week will feature a continuation of the generally colder than normal temperatures. A strong cold shot is likely around midweek. Afterward, the cold will likely begin ease.

A pattern change toward persistent milder conditions could begin to evolve during the first week of February. The extended range of the EPS already shows the start of a warming trend in the closing days of January, so the timing remains somewhat uncertain. Such large-scale pattern changes have sometimes been preceded by or coincided with storms.

The PNA is positive and is likely to remain positive through at least January 27th. A positive PNA is associated with more frequent snowfalls in the Middle Atlantic region. However, big snowfalls typically occur when the AO is negative.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.4°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.8°C for the week centered around January 12. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.20°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -1.03°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through meteorological winter.

The SOI was +11.26 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.549.

On January 20 the MJO was in Phase 6 at an amplitude of 0.665 (RMM). The January 19-adjusted amplitude was 0.402 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 99% probability that New York City will have a colder than normal January (1991-2020 normal). January will likely finish with a mean temperature near 30.4° (3.3° below normal).

 

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6 hours ago, Doorman said:

The big take away ....wiggle room  :arrowhead:

I've never seen such a large area of 12-24 in my entire life. I don't even think Jan 1996 had this large of an area of such heavy snowfall....which makes this output look suspect, expect there to be sharp cut offs with this.  Very difficult to get this kind of expansive super large area of heavy snowfall without Atlantic side blocking.

 

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The next 8 days are averaging  26degs.(20/32) or -7.

Month to date is  31.8[-2.1].     Should be  31.2[-3.4] by the 31st.

Reached 34 here yesterday.

Today:  33-36, wind w. to n., variable skies to overcast late.

End of month storm gone?     All models with the snow into New England and Maine now.

25*(48%RH) here at 6am.      30* at 10am.      32* at Noon.   38* at 4pm.

 

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