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1 hour ago, SnoSki14 said:

Something is def going to happen end of January given strong and consistent signals from ensembles. 

Way too early to say what exactly though.

That's a strong signal from 06z GEFS. The problem is whether the trough axis will end up too far east leading to another close call. 

I'd like to see a sharper ridge out west moving forward. 

There are big questions with next weekend that will limit what happens. The good is that the pattern change on the PAC side will be underway, we usually see storms at the end of established patterns. The other good is the cold that will be in place although it will be starting to relax some at that point but still cold. The issues….still fast flow, no -NAO block, no 50/50 low. The big question is the +PNA ridge….is the GFS actually correct 7 days out with its position and strength? That will greatly affect the downstream trough in the east. If the trough is positively tilted we have issues. If the GFS is wrong about the ridge in the west and the trough doesn’t go negative at the right time it all falls apart like the Euro. Is the GFS handling the northern and southern stream waves correctly? We have a lot to watch over the next week and a lot can change, people need to realize that 

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After a winter filled with nothing but fail. I'm pretty sure folks recognize that fail is a possibility. It's all everyone in here has been harping about constantly. At the same time, folks need to realize that a storm happening, is also a legit possibility. It's not only the gfs op showing that possibility FWIW. 

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32 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

There are big questions with next weekend that will limit what happens. The good is that the pattern change on the PAC side will be underway, we usually see storms at the end of established patterns. The other good is the cold that will be in place although it will be starting to relax some at that point but still cold. The issues….still fast flow, no -NAO block, no 50/50 low. The big question is the +PNA ridge….is the GFS actually correct 7 days out with its position and strength? That will greatly affect the downstream trough in the east. If the trough is positively tilted we have issues. If the GFS is wrong about the ridge in the west and the trough doesn’t go negative at the right time it all falls apart like the Euro. Is the GFS handling the northern and southern stream waves correctly? We have a lot to watch over the next week and a lot can change, people need to realize that 

Snowman even though we have different biases with cold/snow vs warm/sunny, I couldn’t agree more with your statement. This winter from my point of view has been incredibly frustrating with progressive patterns, wave spacing and what not. Is the potential there for a whopper snowstorm? Of course there is. With this being a week away it could also just as easily with a ridge break down end up as a fish storm or not even develop altogether. I refuse to get pulled in to another “potential blockbuster storm” only to get the rug get pulled out from me. If this threat still holds up and we’re 72 hours from the event then I’ll bite. One last thing,  I’m very sorry for your recent loss.

 

 

 

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30 day patterns have been the norm for us since the start of November. There have been regime shifts near the beginning of each new month . Our last change occurred in early January and was accompanied by the best snowstorm of the season. Let’s hope we can put together a nice snowstorm near the end of January as we move to the next winter pattern in February. 
 

393196FF-6AF9-47E7-A22A-8E77ECC6353E.thumb.png.3e2ad00a0400792119522a2294d9b4fd.png

C1DF3676-DDF4-4085-BFB4-030039D29DD4.thumb.png.3e1ba5b369c887810097d72006bffeeb.png

 

 

 

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40 minutes ago, bluewave said:

30 day patterns have been the norm for us since the start of November. There have been regime shifts near the beginning of each new month . Our last change occurred in early January and was accompanied by the best snowstorm of the season. Let’s hope we can put together a nice snowstorm near the end of January as we move to the next winter pattern in February. 
 

393196FF-6AF9-47E7-A22A-8E77ECC6353E.thumb.png.3e2ad00a0400792119522a2294d9b4fd.png

C1DF3676-DDF4-4085-BFB4-030039D29DD4.thumb.png.3e1ba5b369c887810097d72006bffeeb.png

 

 

 

Thanks!

What are your thoughts of the end of the GEFS run below?

What's good - colder than normal temps above us and minimal SE ridge.

What's bad - no Arctic help at all.

Given shorter wavelengths, I think this is a potentially snowy look. Thoughts?

1301270111_gfs-ens_z500a_nhem_65(1).thumb.png.91c7640a6047f3dc2658e1321ff5ea66.pnggfs-ens_T850a_nhem_65.thumb.png.d228c29d920cfb5acad84aa939416d04.png

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12 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Thanks!

What are your thoughts of the end of the GEFS run below?

What's good - colder than normal temps above us and minimal SE ridge.

What's bad - no Arctic help at all.

Given shorter wavelengths, I think this is a potentially snowy look. Thoughts?

1301270111_gfs-ens_z500a_nhem_65(1).thumb.png.91c7640a6047f3dc2658e1321ff5ea66.png

The next 10 days or so will probably determine whether we make it to normal snowfall on the season. Winter is a bit like a football game. We can’t keep missing opportunities and hope to make it all up near the end of the game. We would need a nice snowstorm next week plus any snow we can pick up in February and March in order to reach near to above normal snowfall  with the new higher 30 year averages.

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2 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The next 10 days or so will probably determine whether we make it to normal snowfall on the season. Winter is a bit like a football game. We can’t keep missing opportunities an hope to make it all up near the end of the game. We would need a nice snowstorm next week plus any snow we can pick up in February and March. To reach near to above normal with the new higher 30 year averages.

Thanks.

I guess one good thing about having a low a average annual snowfall total (30 to 35) is that we are almost always in the game for a hail Mary (Feb 2006, March 2013, March 1993, heck I think I read that 1887/1888 was a mild snowless winter with early flower growth before the biggest blizzard of all time in March).

I desperately want to each average this year to continue saying "only 6 below average snowfall seasons this century").

Heard that the EPS has a more negative EPO than GEFS.

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Added RMOP: This can be helpful. Use the legend.  Reds are high probability of being correct heights, blues indicate lots of uncertainty with respect to predictability.

Added the 00z/22 GEFS trough for next weekend... big trough se USA but questionable ne USA heights (is it deeper, or splits east?) 

And the 360 hour which show confidence of the overall GEFS look at the pattern 16 day in advance. Use carefully but I don't see a big 2+ day torch yet...coming I'm sure since all of our long rangers are confident, but is it Feb week one (i dont think that is likely but may be a bad read on part--others chime the science on response to retrograde)? Week two: better chance of significant warming. 

Screen Shot 2022-01-22 at 9.35.58 AM.png

Screen Shot 2022-01-22 at 9.35.09 AM.png

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28 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Thanks.

I guess one good thing about having a low a average annual snowfall total (30 to 35) is that we are almost always in the game for a hail Mary (Feb 2006, March 2013, March 1993, heck I think I read that 1887/1888 was a mild snowless winter with early flower growth before the biggest blizzard of all time in March).

I desperately want to each average this year to continue saying "only 6 below average snowfall seasons this century").

Heard that the EPS has a more negative EPO than GEFS.

NYC came into February 2006 with 11.7” but had a SSW event which produced the KU. We had Dec  and Feb -AO patterns that year with record warmth in January. 2013 was another SSW winter which had the KU in February. Last February was great due to the SSW and record -AO. Since we won’t have a SSW and a great -AO going forward, we need a nice snow event next weekend before we lose the +PNA block. 

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17 minutes ago, bluewave said:

NYC came into February 2006 with 11.7” but had a SSW event which produced the KU. We had Dec  and Feb -AO patterns that year with record warmth in January. 2013 was another SSW winter which had the KU in February. Last February was great due to the SSW and record -AO. Since we won’t have a SSW and a great -AO going forward, we need a nice snow event next weekend before we lose the +PNA block. 

Thanks. Given the 30 day pattern intervals we have seen it's looking like Feb will be warm and March the PNA will go positive again and be cold.

Was there an SSWE in fall which led to the Neg NAO? I feel like the NAO being negative caused us to lose snow events which may have been similar to Jan 2012 and Feb 2018.

 

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16 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Thanks. Given the 30 day pattern intervals we have seen it's looking like Feb will be warm and March the PNA will go positive again and be cold.

Was there an SSWE in fall which led to the Neg NAO? I feel like the NAO being negative caused us to lose snow events which may have been similar to Jan 2012 and Feb 2018.

 

Simon Lee has a great tweet illustrating the differences so far between this year and last.

 

 

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39 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Simon Lee has a great tweet illustrating the differences so far between this year and last.

 

 

Thanks for this!

It seems that Feb will be a battle between shorter wavelengths, negative EPO and RNA ++AO NAO.

Probably warmer to much warmer than average with more snow opportunities than Dec since we will not have the Negative NAO causing the meat grinder (trailing wave).

Just a hunch that March with be back to a + PNA similar to now with no blocking giving the 30 day pattern window we are in.

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