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2 hours ago, snowman19 said:

Shorter wavelengths aren’t going to matter with what the weeklies show if they are correct. If what they are showing actually happens, it will be a torch, there’s no way to sugar coat it, +EPO, -PNA, +NAO, +AO and a raging strong SPV, SE ridge on roids, is a torch here no matter what the wavelengths are in February 

 

capt Picard pic.jpg

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In the wake of an Arctic cold front, much colder air is pouring into the region. This air mass will cover the region tomorrow through the weekend. The weekend will be mainly dry as a storm moves offshore well to the south and east of the region.

A pattern change toward persistent milder conditions could begin to evolve during the first week of February. The extended range of the EPS already shows the start of a warming trend in the closing days of January, so the timing remains somewhat uncertain.

The PNA is positive and is likely to remain positive through at least January 27th. A positive PNA is associated with more frequent snowfalls in the Middle Atlantic region. However, big snowfalls typically occur when the AO is negative.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.4°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.8°C for the week centered around January 12. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.20°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -1.03°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through meteorological winter.

The SOI was +7.92 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.486.

On January 18 the MJO was in Phase 7 at an amplitude of 0.364 (RMM). The January 17-adjusted amplitude was 0.429 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 96% probability that New York City will have a colder than normal January (1991-2020 normal). January will likely finish with a mean temperature near 30.5° (3.2° below normal).

 

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53 minutes ago, bluewave said:

I posted the weeklies just for informational purposes. We all know that skill falls off pretty quickly after 15 days. But the first week of February forecast is the same for the EPS, GEFS, GEPS, and JMA. They all have slightly different forcing with similar 500 mb patterns. The MJO is currently pretty weak in the unit circle. So maybe the pattern shift in early February among all the models is just a return to a more Niña-like background pattern.

Yeah, I get it. My post following that one stated the support for that scenario to start February. I'm not arguing against it. I'm actually hoping that they have the right idea for the whole month. This winter has grown tiresome. Lots of wasted potential to date. In several ways. The jet retraction is really the driving force of the upcoming retrograde. It's pulling everything back west as it retracts IMO. There's very good agreement on that since it is happening in the nearer term. Beyond that, is where I have questions. 

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56 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Yea, keep thinking deep winter is coming in February lol You’re going to be in short sleeves soon my dude 

Sure I am. Just like cold and winter was over in December. January is going to be well below normal so it stands to reason that Feb may have a warmup. You never miss a chance to accentuate warmth and no snow. If one long range prog shows it you will jump all over it. It's what you do. I have never once seen you excited about a potential wintry event.  You are always quiet when it does snow. You are a broken record that has zero credibility. Please change your screen name to warmandwet. 

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4 hours ago, eduggs said:

The pattern of results may have been common. But the weather patterns are unique. We've had a wound up southern stream blasting into a wall of confluence, another wound up northern stream wave phasing with a follow-up wave and slamming Toronto, and then a few positively to neutrally tilted, progressive northern stream trofs that fringed us or missed south. All of those could have been hits or misses depending on subtleties in the features. Our lack of snow has nothing to do with any pattern similarities to the 1980s.

If these forums were around back then we may have been saying some very similar things.

I can only imagine what this board would have been like in Feb 1989 and Dec 1989.

It would have been like a horror movie come to life.

 

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2 hours ago, HeadInTheClouds said:

Sure I am. Just like cold and winter was over in December. January is going to be well below normal so it stands to reason that Feb may have a warmup. You never miss a chance to accentuate warmth and no snow. If one long range prog shows it you will jump all over it. It's what you do. I have never once seen you excited about a potential wintry event.  You are always quiet when it does snow. You are a broken record that has zero credibility. Please change your screen name to warmandwet. 

Actually there is one exception I remember....Jan 2016.  I remember he was pretty excited about that event for NYC and even said the higher (2 foot amounts) had a good chance of verifying.  It's the one time he was like that.

 

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7 hours ago, bluewave said:

I posted the weeklies just for informational purposes. We all know that skill falls off pretty quickly after 15 days. But the first week of February forecast is the same for the EPS, GEFS, GEPS, and JMA. They all have slightly different forcing with similar 500 mb patterns. The MJO is currently pretty weak in the unit circle. So maybe the pattern shift in early February among all the models is just a return to a more Niña-like background pattern.

The CANSIPS is also a massive torch like the weeklies. This is about as strong a pattern signal as you will see: 

 

 

 

 

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In the meantime, MEX MOS is a little weak on the intensity of the cold NYC, already at least 2F too warm NYC and may be in error by 4F by 8A today. Tonight should colder NYC. Possibly?? the coldest of the season NYC Thu the 27th?  

And I see the potential easing of the cold in early Feb but until the ridge disappears AK, we still have pretty sizable source of cold enough air early Feb to spread into the region I80 north, as I see it. Big se USA ridge could come earlier but for now, it's not there, at least as far as I can tell. 

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Morning thoughts…

It will be variably cloudy and very cold today. High temperatures will likely reach the lower and middle 20s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 22°

Newark: 24°

Philadelphia: 27°

Normals:

New York City: 30-Year: 39.1°; 15-Year: 39.7°

Newark: 30-Year: 39.6°; 15-Year: 40.4°

Philadelphia: 30-Year: 40.9°; 15-Year: 41.5°

The weekend will be cold and dry.

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The next 8 days are averaging 26degs.(21/30) or -7.

Month to date is  33.0[-0.9].       Should be  31.0[-2.6] by the 29th.

Reached 44 yesterday (at midnight) and T fell during the day to 24 this midnight.

Today: 23-25, wind n., cloudy, then clearing.

No tangible 10-Day snows, just BN T's till early February.

17*(46%RH) here at 6am.      16* at 7am.        19* at Noon.      23* at 2pm.     24* at 3:30pm.      22* at 9pm.

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The CANSIPS is also a massive torch like the weeklies. This is about as strong a pattern signal as you will see: 
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The CANSIPS is also a massive torch like the weeklies. This is about as strong a pattern signal as you will see: 
 
 
 
 

Are you invested in barbecue manufacturing and lawn care companies? (Weber went public recently) Not saying that you’re right or wrong, but it’s like wanting it to snow because you make a livelihood off of snow plowing.
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18 this morning, western inland edge of Toms River. I’ve noticed this January on the colder nights we’ve been running a good bit colder than the “official” temp for TR, not necessarily last night but in general. Probably because I’m more inland and further away from the coast than the station. 
 

It is nice to be just far enough from the coast to reduce the amount of coastal mixing that sometimes happens, yet close enough to retain the benefits of strong coastal banding. 
 

Only thing I like living down here vs up north with most of you. 

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2 minutes ago, Volcanic Winter said:

18 this morning, western inland edge of Toms River. I’ve noticed this January on the colder nights we’ve been running a good bit colder than the “official” temp for TR, not necessarily last night but in general. Probably because I’m more inland and further away from the coast than the station. 
 

It is nice to be just far enough from the coast to reduce the amount of coastal mixing that sometimes happens, yet close enough to retain the benefits of strong coastal banding. 
 

Only thing I like living down here vs up north with most of you. 

My friend lives right off exit 82 and noticed the same thing. I’ve seen it even up to 10 degrees colder in west TR

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1 hour ago, wdrag said:

In the meantime, MEX MOS is a little weak on the intensity of the cold NYC, already at least 2F too warm NYC and may be in error by 4F by 8A today. Tonight should colder NYC. Possibly?? the coldest of the season NYC Thu the 27th?  

And I see the potential easing of the cold in early Feb but until the ridge disappears AK, we still have pretty sizable source of cold enough air early Feb to spread into the region I80 north, as I see it. Big se USA ridge could come earlier but for now, it's not there, at least as far as I can tell. 

Thanks Walt. 

The models look paltry w/r/t snowfall. If it pans out this way it would be shocking that we did not experience even one moderate snowfall for the 2nd half of the month.

I for one am shocked.

We probably end up with a moderate event during a Feb torch period like Feb 2018.

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57 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The 0Z EPS and GEFS are already pushing back the warm up they were showing in early February. So while the retrogression of the ridge back to the Aleutians still occurs, heights remain lower in the Northeast. Whether the extension of the late January colder pattern into early February results in a decent snowstorm remains to be seen. The southern stream suppression has been our biggest challenge this month so far.


New run

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Old run

 

0BE5A1B5-7D60-4498-A0DA-ED8E1C926139.thumb.png.ca9f1c12102f7acc811ebfe9326dd9c3.png

 

 

Shocked nothing has shown up during this second half of Jan. So far and as modeled.

Understand the fast flow and wave spacing but no luck at all is amazing to me.

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I think it has been a descent January.

Nice and cold. A few snow events (a little paltry) but my lawn has had some  snow on it for most of month without the hassle of widespread deep snow cover

Much better than some past winters of constant warmth

Like other posters mentioned, I also dont get the torch/snow lovers.

There is so much more to winter than a day of snow: skiing, skating, clean air with great visibility, the crisp morning air, stepping out of a hot bar to smoke a cigarette in the cold with friends.

In an increasingly hot and humid climate, it is a nice reprieve. Enjoy it. 

Up to 11F :) In terms of extremes, I will take this over 100F anyday

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