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I looked at the 00z/17 weeklies and imo, I think we're good for snow opportunities til about Valentines Day when the entire region in NAM north of 60N becomes cold with a dominant vortex up there (cold anomalies), where I don't think we want. 

So, I think this means, 2-4 more weeks of snow opportunities.

Not threading Thursday morning  (20th) tonight, since the 18z EC doesn't have anything going on. I am thinking the 00z/18 EC will drift over and that we'll get more consensus  with this strong cold front bringing a 1-3" snowfall during rush hour with temps falling to freezing, for a significant portion of our subforum but I can't commit at this time since too many models say NO-it won't happen.  Just have to sit on it til maybe there is more favorable modeling.

Back in the morning. 

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1 hour ago, wdrag said:

I looked at the 00z/17 weeklies and imo, I think we're good for snow opportunities til about Valentines Day when the entire region in NAM north of 60N becomes cold with a dominant vortex up there (cold anomalies), where I don't think we want. 

So, I think this means, 2-4 more weeks of snow opportunities.

Not threading Thursday morning  (20th) tonight, since the 18z EC doesn't have anything going on. I am thinking the 00z/18 EC will drift over and that we'll get more consensus  with this strong cold front bringing a 1-3" snowfall during rush hour with temps falling to freezing, for a significant portion of our subforum but I can't commit at this time since too many models say NO-it won't happen.  Just have to sit on it til maybe there is more favorable modeling.

Back in the morning. 

arctic front snowfalls do seem to be a nowcast thing

 

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39 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Thanks Don, looks normal to me which is fine.  Do you think Walt's ideas of snowfall chances through mid Feb has merit?  Do you have the anomaly map for the second week of Feb too?

 

If the pattern change unfolds as shown on the latest EPS, there could be opportunities until mid-February. A faster transition would  reduce the window of opportunity.

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Will begin a Thursday morning thread by 745AM. 1-3" of snow looks to be coming to a part of the forum with any rain possibly washing away pre treatment brine and then snow with temps falling to freezing potentially making for a very hazardous morning commute. Timing and location of best snowfall (1/2 to 1" for 1 hour?) unknown but targeting the subforum. More at 745 AM.

Will also update the 21-24 thread headline around 8A.

Regarding the weeklies. I look at 500MB and noticed the 7day average weeklies start a pretty good warming of 500MB near the 12th. In that potential transition warming, I see WAA and possible snowfall before the warmth follows.

These are weeklies a month in advance... only my subjective take of potentially shakey guidance 3 weeks in advance. I could be wrong. But I am telling my FB group to think winter til about Valentines Day, which is all seasonable cold with one or 2 big cold shots. Usually it can snow in seasonable cold.

I  do not see dominating overwhelming warmth til at least the 12th. I hope I dont eat my words -  Maybe I'll have to give it up sooner, but this is a good 2- possibly 4 week pattern coming.

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The next 8 days are averaging 29degs.(24/33) or -4.

Month to date is  32.6[-1.5].       Should be  31.5[-2.3]by the 26th.

Reached 44 yesterday in early AM and fell to 37 during the PM.

Today: 35-37, wind w. and breezy, variable skies.

EURO still with 10" on the weekend as the best snow bid in the next 10 days.     Weeklies looked -6 for the next 30 days and 20"+ of snow.

32*(56%RH) here at 6am.{was 31* at 4am}.      38* by 4pm.

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My post to FB friends ATL-BOS: This holds till I can update a couple of threads and only my take based on modeling that we all see. 
 
The heart of winter, probably lingers til about Valentines Day with snow opportunities and a couple of real cold shots. 
 
Today: scattered morning flurries I84 to Tughill diminish midday.
 
Thursday morning I84-NYC-PHL: Looks like 1-3" of snow in a 6 hour period centered on sunrise, with potential significant impact to morning travel due to temps falling to freezing during snowfall. There is model uncertainty on amounts. Snow could fall for an hour at 1/2-1". I84 itself seems to be on the northern fringe where snowfall could be less than 1". Amounts also depend on how fast the preceding predawn rain showers change to snow but I am confident of a snow event, just not confident who gets the biggest impact. Tomorrow morning we should have a much better idea of travel impact.
 
East coast snowstorm potential 21st-22nd Atlanta to NYC-Boston: Uncertainty exists on best target, and also where its all snow or freezing rain-sleet. The greatest uncertainty for me is the NYC-BOSTON-I84 corridor. No matter, there does appear to be a strong likelihood of a 5-10" snowfall, especially NC-VA-MD-DE. The snow could fall as sleet-freezing rain Raleigh east. Even Atlanta may see some snow from this. A better idea of timing and target will post tomorrow. If you are interested: The European model has been targeting the entire corridor with a snow storm from near Atlanta to NYC-BOS for a couple of days now, while other models are relucant, so uncertainty exists.
 
An experimental impact graphic follows for Friday into Saturday. It's incomplete not including the whole storm. 646A/18

Screen Shot 2022-01-18 at 6.38.28 AM.png

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Morning thoughts…

It will be mostly sunny, breezy, and cold today. High temperatures will likely middle and upper 30s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 34°

Newark: 36°

Philadelphia: 39°

Normals:

New York City: 30-Year: 39.1°; 15-Year: 39.8°

Newark: 30-Year: 39.6°; 15-Year: 40.5°

Philadelphia: 30-Year: 40.9°; 15-Year: 41.6°

Tomorrow will be milder ahead of the next cold front. There could be a period of snow or flurries early Thursday.

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55 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Fwiw, and it isn't much, but the CFS weeklies keep the 2m temps below normal the entire run.

Warmest panel at end

cfs-avg_T2maMean_us_6.thumb.png.f157f8b4d7581485a0a82bad0e2e5a85.png

 

We definitely want something like that since the Euro is gong in the opposite direction from what we want to see at the start of February.

D3F903D9-57AC-4EA1-8B75-76D26663A5B6.thumb.png.5f973d31c2d8a78ac7f7811ceea8ec89.png

 

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1 minute ago, bluewave said:

We definitely want something like that since the Euro is gong in the opposite direction from what we want to see at the start of February.

D3F903D9-57AC-4EA1-8B75-76D26663A5B6.thumb.png.5f973d31c2d8a78ac7f7811ceea8ec89.png

 

I think it's going to delay this look for a while longer. It would be nice if it could delay it till Feb 15 when -PNA starts to lose its influence.

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