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3 hours ago, EasternLI said:

Yeah, we're talking about a western trough, but it's not determined how deep that would be. Simply that it's a favored feature at this time as February begins. Variations matter. Regardless, like it or not, there's a couple snow threats before then as well. 

That’s it. A more north based -PNA with some ridging lingering near California is always preferable. It’s the deep trough digging toward the Baja that’s not what we ever want to see. Models seem to agree on the ridge pull back closer to the Aleutians. But the critical depth of the -PNA in early February will probably have to wait for later runs. As you mentioned, the AO is even less certain long range for the models. This could be related to the potential for wave breaks to pop up in the short term.  

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8 minutes ago, North and West said:


Actually, this might help for next fall and early winter.


.

If it turns out it was a high S02 event, absolutely. Even into next winter. Peak cooling usually last about a year after the event. It’s just unfortunate Anthony thought we would see instant cooling. 

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Admittedly I know nothing about the relationship between eruptions and our local climate but I remember someone saying that tropical eruptions could have negative impacts on our winters. For instance, there’s some thought that the Pinatubo eruption in 1991 was a factor in our crap winters of the early 90’s.

We benefit more from eruptions at higher latitudes, such as Alaska or Iceland. 

Again, not saying any of this if fact. Just passing along what I read. Hopefully someone with knowledge on the subject can chime in.

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3 hours ago, forkyfork said:

it was nothing close to pinatubo

also Pinatubo didn't do much for our winters, unless you think 1993-94 was influenced by Pinatubo (which I doubt....otherwise why was summer 1993 so hot?)

If you want a cold winter, Pinatubo wouldnt be strong enough.....you need something on the scale of Tambora.

 

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3 hours ago, JTA66 said:

Admittedly I know nothing about the relationship between eruptions and our local climate but I remember someone saying that tropical eruptions could have negative impacts on our winters. For instance, there’s some thought that the Pinatubo eruption in 1991 was a factor in our crap winters of the early 90’s.

We benefit more from eruptions at higher latitudes, such as Alaska or Iceland. 

Again, not saying any of this if fact. Just passing along what I read. Hopefully someone with knowledge on the subject can chime in.

I was actually alive when Pinatubo erupted and our winters were shit after that.

 

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3 hours ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

If it turns out it was a high S02 event, absolutely. Even into next winter. Peak cooling usually last about a year after the event. It’s just unfortunate Anthony thought we would see instant cooling. 

Volcanoes arent the slam dunk cooling that people think they are....you need something exceptional like Tambora.  Pinatubo didn't improve our winters at all, so I dont get the fascination with that middling eruption.

 

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10 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

also Pinatubo didn't do much for our winters, unless you think 1993-94 was influenced by Pinatubo (which I doubt....otherwise why was summer 1993 so hot?)

If you want a cold winter, Pinatubo wouldnt be strong enough.....you need something on the scale of Tambora.

 

There is some thought that Pinatubo contributed to a cooler summer in 1992.

But yes, this eruptions isn’t close to Pinatubo levels.

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Just now, JTA66 said:

There is some thought that Pinatubo contributed to a cooler summer in 1992.

But yes, this eruptions isn’t close to Pinatubo levels.

Yea, that it probably did do, Summer 1992 was exceptionally cold and rainy.  I wonder if volcanoes like this have much more of an effect on summer than they do on winter.

 

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