Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,502
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Weathernoob335
    Newest Member
    Weathernoob335
    Joined

Recommended Posts

Gotta love TWC app. It’s horrible. Tonight was forecast to be 10° but then my current temperature was 10 and so the app said it would be 9° and then my current temp dropped to eight and now my low will be 7°. They have the nerve to charge for the “premium edition” - what good is it if basic weather reporting is inaccurate. Anyway, time to jump in the hot tub!

Link to comment
Share on other sites

After another very cold night, tomorrow will turn less harsh as the mercury again returns to the 30s in much of the region. However, another shot of Arctic air is likely late in the week.

The subtropical jet could begin to become more active near mid-month. That could create additional opportunities for storminess.

January commenced with an AO-/PNA- pattern. That typically favors somewhat cooler than normal readings in the East. For NYC, the January 1-10, 1991-2020 mean temperature for such cases was 33.5° (normal: 34.8°). This time around, the average will be warmer, but the transition toward colder weather has occurred. By mid-month, New York City's temperature anomaly will very likely be below normal. Based on the latest guidance, it appears that the colder pattern that is now in place could last 3-4 weeks until late in the month.

The PNA is now positive and is likely to remain positive through at least January 20. A positive PNA is associated with more frequent snowfalls in the Middle Atlantic region.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.9°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.1°C for the week centered around January 5. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.32°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -1.05°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through meteorological winter.

The SOI was -5.04 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.773.

On January 9 the MJO was in Phase 7 at an amplitude of 1.885 (RMM). The January 8-adjusted amplitude was 2.031 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 81% probability that New York City will have a colder than normal January (1991-2020 normal). January will likely finish with a mean temperature near 31.6° (2.1° below normal).

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, wdrag said:

Unsure if anyone posted but CPC has some interesting possibilities for 19th-22nd including a chance of heavy snow basically Chicago to New Haven northward and a high prob of very cold air invading the upper Midwest. 

814prcp.new.gif

I like this for our biggest snow of the year, then it will warm up -PNA, but may be -NAO too into Feb-March-April. I really like -PNA March. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 hours ago, psv88 said:

Up to 20 degrees. Pretty meh arctic airmass. Low of 16 and high of 20 (midnight high of 24). 

 

4 hours ago, Brian5671 said:

stayed in the upper teens here-not that windy today either.  Run of the mill.   

Yeah, just a -14 departure in nyc during the coldest month of the year. 

  • Like 1
  • Haha 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, LibertyBell said:

People are expecting NYC to go below zero thats like a once a decade occurrence if even that anymore, probably now more like a once every other decade occurrence.

 

Tough for the city to do that.  Would need a north wind too.   NW wind modifies the airmass as it heads over the warmer great lakes

Link to comment
Share on other sites

55 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Down to 13 here. I agree that this airmass isn’t all that impressive. Here and gone in a day. We probably have a few hours left for temps to go down before the airmass rushes out and we start rising again. 

Definitely overblown.  I usually think about great lakes temperatures as impacting snow belt areas, but it mattered here.  A friend in Tupper Lake told me they were -17 this am and barely got to 0 today.  Not record cold, but definitely less modified there.  12 here now.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, LibertyBell said:

wait does that mean sub zero with snow cover doesn't slow the spread of invasive species?

 

Snow is a great insulator and prevent desiccation of insects and arachnids overwintering. Extreme cold with no snow cover can kill them. If you hate ticks you don’t want a lot of snow on the ground when we get the frigid weather. This weekend may beat some back!

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...