January 2022

[donsutherland1]

52 minutes ago, jfklganyc said:

30F

Freezing Drizzle

Ice on everything

Going to be a real problem on roads

 

Photo says it all

There’s light freezing rain in New Rochelle and multiple accidents. Both the northbound and southbound traffic on the Hutchinson River Parkway is at a standstill.

[Rtd208]

Pretty good glaze of ice in this area this morning. Plenty of accidents.

Current temp up to 33 here now.

[ForestHillWx]

Schools called a 2 hour delay last night, in hindsight it was a good move. 

Currently 30 with drizzle.

[matt8204]

Pretty icy this morning.  Be careful if you venture out before the temps rise.  I saw a couple of buses that got stuck and a bad-looking accident on a highway overpass near Route 46 in Little Falls.  

[dWave]

1 hour ago, donsutherland1 said:

There’s light freezing rain in New Rochelle and multiple accidents. Both the northbound and southbound traffic on the Hutchinson River Parkway is at a standstill.

There was a 20 car pileup on I 287 and smaller piles up and closures on the Hutch, Cross County, Bronx River Pkwy, Deegan Expy. In hindsight that Winter Weather Advisory should of included NYC and southern Westchester.  They extended it after the damage already begun.

[EastonSN+]

3 hours ago, bluewave said:

New all-time December lowest monthly -PNA for the month at -2.56. So it’s no surprise that the December snowfall was so low around the area. The big rebound in recent days allowed record snows to our south. Plus our first accumulating snow potential of the season in few days. So this just goes to show how important getting a favorable Pacific is for snowfall from the mid-Atlantic to our area. 
 

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/norm.pna.monthly.b5001.current.ascii.table

2021   0.19  -0.31  -0.97  -1.05  -1.35   0.67   0.56   0.95   0.44   1.13   0.72  -2.56

 

I wonder, with the NAO we had if the PNA was just a little less negative if we would have had average to above average snowfall for December.

I would roll the dice with another negative PNA NAO combo in February (say -1.5).

[EastonSN+]

Found this online for MJO phase 7 on Feb. Not sure if this is a good look temp wise but would imagine nothing would cut. Perhaps dry.

 

 

 

[lee59]

Just had a heavy shower here, up to 36 degrees.

[EasternLI]

2 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Found this online for MJO phase 7 on Feb. Not sure if this is a good look temp wise but would imagine nothing would cut. Perhaps dry.

 

 

 

That one is for El Niño. This is the La Niña one. But we don't know what the MJO is going to do anyway yet.

[EastonSN+]

9 minutes ago, EasternLI said:

That one is for El Niño. This is the La Niña one. But we don't know what the MJO is going to do anyway yet.

The GEFS looks great. I do not have the EPS past 240 does it also have the same good look?

[EasternLI]

It's a good look after day 10, but is hinting at some -PNA at the very end. Could be right, but it's just unclear at the moment IMO. We'll have to watch some future runs. 

[EastonSN+]

14 minutes ago, EasternLI said:

It's a good look after day 10, but is hinting at some -PNA at the very end. Could be right, but it's just unclear at the moment IMO. We'll have to watch some future runs. 

I would take an RNA again if we get the negative NAO (and the PNA is not negative in record levels)

[Brian5671]

1 hour ago, dWave said:

There was a 20 car pileup on I 287 and smaller piles up and closures on the Hutch, Cross County, Bronx River Pkwy, Deegan Expy. In hindsight that Winter Weather Advisory should of included NYC and southern Westchester.  They extended it after the damage already begun.

complete debacle in my area-no salt on roads, pileups just a disaster all around.

[donsutherland1]

1 hour ago, dWave said:

There was a 20 car pileup on I 287 and smaller piles up and closures on the Hutch, Cross County, Bronx River Pkwy, Deegan Expy. In hindsight that Winter Weather Advisory should of included NYC and southern Westchester.  They extended it after the damage already begun.

Unfortunately, there was a fatality in one of the accidents near where the Bronx River Parkway meets the Cross County Parkway.

[EasternLI]

3 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

I would take an RNA again if we get the negative NAO (and the PNA is not negative in record levels)

I think it's going to come down to what the MJO wants to do, at least in part. I was flipping through the eps individuals vp200 and they were all over the place later on. Some in the IO, some back by the warm pool, others out in the Pacific. No idea which way this goes currently. 

[SnoSki14]

I like the Jan 15-20 period for our area. Really nice PNA spike and plenty of cold.

It's the missing ingredient for Friday's system. 

[MJO812]

4 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

I like the Jan 15-20 period for our area. Really nice PNA spike and plenty of cold.

It's the missing ingredient for Friday's system. 

Agree but that's way out there 

[cleetussnow]

the LR isn't great, I mean looking at D10 ish.  I am not convinced there is a lot of skill in the models beyond that this season.  Heart of winter coming up and its meh looking.  

[SnoSki14]

11 minutes ago, cleetussnow said:

the LR isn't great, I mean looking at D10 ish.  I am not convinced there is a lot of skill in the models beyond that this season.  Heart of winter coming up and its meh looking.  

I completely disagree. There's a building western ridge that will retrograde further west over time. 

Next 10 day outlook. Friday system 1-3/2-4" followed by cold weekend, brief warm early next week followed by coldest air of the season then some more relaxation as the western ridge really builds. 

After that the stage is set for a very snowy period. Ensembles hinting at some Atlantic blocking as well. I think Jan 15-20 and possibly up till the 25th could be very good. 

[eduggs]

I can't wait until we pass that magic MJO threshold from phase 7.9999 to 8.0000. Then we can snow! 

[snowman19]

1 hour ago, EasternLI said:

It's a good look after day 10, but is hinting at some -PNA at the very end. Could be right, but it's just unclear at the moment IMO. We'll have to watch some future runs. 

The revert back to -PNA/RNA makes sense given the coupled Niña background state and severely negative PDO, you aren’t sustaining +PNA for very long. What Eric explains would basically fit canonical La Niña climo (in the absence of any SSW to shake things up) for late January and February: 

 

[lee59]

I'm sure getting a lot more rain than expected this morning. Approaching a quarter inch and still raining.

[EasternLI]

30 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

The revert back to -PNA/RNA makes sense given the coupled Niña background state and severely negative PDO, you aren’t sustaining +PNA for very long. What Eric explains would basically fit canonical La Niña climo (in the absence of any SSW to shake things up) for late January and February: 

 

If that happens, so be it. I have no control over the weather. Not sure how he's so confident about the MJO though. When NOAA is even unsure and there is no clarity in modeling yet. Maybe he's right. Maybe he isn't. We're still waiting for that epic pattern composite he made to show up. 

[North and West]

If that happens, so be it. I have no control over the weather. Not sure how he's so confident about the MJO though. When NOAA is even unsure and there is no clarity in modeling yet. Maybe he's right. Maybe he isn't. We're still waiting for that epic pattern composite he made to show up. 

He’s got a 50/50 chance, and I’ve become more convinced in my elder age that seasonal forecasting is that.


.

[SnoSki14]

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

The revert back to -PNA/RNA makes sense given the coupled Niña background state and severely negative PDO, you aren’t sustaining +PNA for very long. What Eric explains would basically fit canonical La Niña climo (in the absence of any SSW to shake things up) for late January and February: 

 

A canonical La Nina would be a lot colder in December. 

However I do see -PNA conditions returning but the pattern shift may take slower than expected. 

[EastonSN+]

We will do fine if the RNA returns as long as the negative NAO returns. We did not score in December due to the fact that the RNA was historic. Give me that combo again with a more reasonable RNA. 

[Brian5671]

2 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

A canonical La Nina would be a lot colder in December. 

However I do see -PNA conditions returning but the pattern shift may take slower than expected. 

models always seem to rush pattern changes (whether going into cold or warm)

[EasternLI]

1 minute ago, North and West said:

He’s got a 50/50 chance, and I’ve become more convinced in my elder age that seasonal forecasting is that.


.

Seasonal forecasting is extremely difficult. There are just so many different factors in play. Not to mention, some factors are not fully understood. You can get a general idea based on mostly enso but there are usually curve balls. I enjoy reading the science on the topic and guessing. But ultimately that's all it is, a guess. Especially since the planet is warming. That's changing the equation further. 

[bluewave]

3 hours ago, EastonSN+ said:

I wonder, with the NAO we had if the PNA was just a little less negative if we would have had average to above average snowfall for December.

I would roll the dice with another negative PNA NAO combo in February (say -1.5).

Just avoiding a 0.0 or T was a big win in December. The Pacific was so hostile in December, that even a better Atlantic wouldn’t have helped out. When we got the Atlantic blocking in late December, everything was shearing out and hitting confluence over SE Canada. So as the record low -PNA rebounded this month, there were record snows to our south and the snow event for our region on Friday. Just a little +PNA ridging can go a long way especially at the tail end of a -AO pattern. 
 

 

[MJO812]

Gefs barking for possible huge storm mid January.

Euro shows it and cmc

Pattern supports it 

We shall see