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January 2022 Obs/Disco


NorEastermass128
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16 minutes ago, Snowcrazed71 said:

Sorry to ask this, but what does KU stand for?

Northeast Snowstorms Volume 1 and Volume 2 Set. (Volume 32): Kocin, Paul J., Uccellini, Louis W.: 9781878220646: Amazon.com: Books

This is what everyone in here reads at Sunday school, puts their hands on when they take an oath, reads scriptures from at weddings, etc.  

It is the GOOD Book.

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8 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Haven’t loaded em on my phone. Had to chauffeur sister to radiology her cancer stuff and those graphics’ URL I know of don’t bootstrap/weren’t designed for this interface so was gonna wait for the 12s later in the day. 

Man, so sorry....hope the diagnosis is good.

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I like the Tuesday threat. Close enough to evaluate (with seriousness) what current guidance is spitting out - the location and intensity of that H5 shortwave in the southern stream on the GFS looks like a classic case of GFS having to amp that up (along with downstream UL heights) as we move in. I think we see this trend towards southern stream predominant, and less amplification of the northern stream as currently advertised.

 

Terms of scale - I think a a very broad  4-8" (local 5-10") type event if it evolves as I think it will. If everything aligns, I think it's capped at low end SECS potential. 

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1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

I wonder if someone can get 6"+ down there....the OES actually may pick up even more as we work through tomorrow morning as that offshore coastal increases the flow and LL convergence.

That is the kind of mesoscale crap you need to get a decent snow this year.

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1 hour ago, mreaves said:

If I had my preference, I would have 3"-6" twice a week, punctuated by a nice 8"-12" storm once a month and temps would stay between 0° and 25° right through until March 15th and then I would awake the next morning to sunny skies, green grass and all the golf courses open.  It never works out that way.  I never catch a break.

You just described 2007-08 here, though we did have some milder temps mixed in.   142.3" and 3,835 SDDs, and only 2 double-digit snowfalls, biggest a modest 12.5".   And going to green grass a day after having a 40" pack might have a downside.  :lol:

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12 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

That is the kind of mesoscale crap you need to get a decent snow this year.

There hasn’t been something like this in years. The CJ I had in 2015 was sort of enhanced by the coastal front. This is true cold air over warm water stuff. It’s curling SW because winds aloft at like 950-900 are more NE for now

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