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January 2022 Obs/Disco


NorEastermass128
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5 minutes ago, 8611Blizz said:

Personally I would love 4/1/97.

That said we already had 25" at Logan that year.  Need to have a good  stretch to get near there this year.

Logan is at 12 or 13 inches now? Climo from here on out is prob like 28-30”. So they need less than half that to reach 25”. 

 

6 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

March 2012 walking in?

I’ll go out on a limb and predict a once every 4 or 5 decade type March probably won’t happen. 

 

15 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Bring it. End this shit.

Ain’t happening. That would be way too easy. You know the CFS will probably be more correct about February and we’ll get tortured to death instead of just pulling the plug. 

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Just now, ORH_wxman said:

Logan is at 12 or 13 inches now? Climo from here on out is prob like 28-30”. So they need less than half that to reach 25”. 

 

I’ll go out on a limb and predict a once every 4 or 5 decade type March probably won’t happen. 

 

Ain’t happening. That would be way too easy. You know the CFS will probably be more correct about February and we’ll get tortured to death instead of just pulling the plug. 

OK. Logan is actually doing better this locale, we're a bit under that. Even so personally I would not bet on making 25" here.

4/1/97 still didn't make it a memorable winter, it was a very memorable storm in an otherwise very forgettable winter. 

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2 minutes ago, JC-CT said:

the 24th is really gearing up to whiff so bad that the 26th is a cutter

Southern stream actually takes a perfect track for us on the 18z gfs but it decides to screw us by having the northern stream lead a weak low over us and rob the baroclinic zone and antecedent airmass. That is perfectly on par for this winter though…ruin a good large scale setup because of some bizarre nuance. 

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20 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Logan is at 12 or 13 inches now? Climo from here on out is prob like 28-30”. So they need less than half that to reach 25”. 

 

I’ll go out on a limb and predict a once every 4 or 5 decade type March probably won’t happen. 

 

Ain’t happening. That would be way too easy. You know the CFS will probably be more correct about February and we’ll get tortured to death instead of just pulling the plug. 

I fully expect Aqua Net, Camaro's and White Snake for the rest of the season. 

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1 hour ago, CT Rain said:

Right? Oof. 

Ray and I were discussing this and how the 'typical la nina + E QBO' tends to finish strong, but I had/have reservations because:

those climate signals were prior to hell breaking loose on Earth, to put it wildly romantic LOL.   Winters have sported eerily hot spells in February's and March's...  regardless of ENSO state, recurrent leitmotifs now some 7 years and counting. Perhaps lost in the din because yeah...there's been big snow storms dappled there too, but .. these runs on 80 in Feb are getting a bit disconcertingly connected to the elephant in the room ( imho - )...  I've been wondering if apparent disconnect that's increasingly decoupling the ENSO with the circulation mode, might bring an early end one of these times in a bit more of a historic fashion.

If we can tap 75 like we did those years... we can definitely do it in that Weekly - assuming a modicum of verification.   Time will tell...

Also waiting on a correlated SSW ... should that finally take place that may not be yet absorbing into the Weeklies'

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Heh.. not in contrary to that sentiment at all, but I think these 'bizarre nuances' are really not so bizarre/abnormal to a fast, speed saturated hemisphere.  It's like splintering and shearing wave mechanics into 'pearling' in that sense...

It's hard for any fluid medium to consolidate bigger organized systems in fast flows.  There's a larger number smaller perturbations that aggregate the same torque budget.  It just that once that wave number ( S/W count ) gets to large, this interference stuff becomes the norm. 

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