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January 2022 Obs/Disco


NorEastermass128
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10 hours ago, mahk_webstah said:

it is the 6.5"  of really thick meaty snowpack up here that makes this tolerable.  But if we don't get at least 6" of powder on top of this in the next week or 10 days, it will become a PITA.  Up here we are on the edge but still optimistic.  Deep winter look outside this morning on the walk.

IMG_6075.jpg

It hasn't been great, but it's been white a lot of the time except for a couple days prior to the dense snow, 8:1 ratio type event on the 18th that laid down some decent frozen water/QPF for most in NNE.  It's been nickel and dime since then but big difference in vibe with at least snow on the ground.  Its been a slow start but it should snow at some point.  Still have 3 full months worth of potential and I'm sure the longer it stays meh, the more likely it is that it snows a bunch in April or something.

Forgot how rough last winter was around this time.  Really only one good warning event away from normal snowpack at the summits too.  Average isn't as high as we sometimes think it is for this time of year, ha.

 

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13 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said:

Well no Scott and no Will and no post for 2 hours.  That says it all.  I will say though that WPC does have all of NE down to Philly in the low end risk for frozen precip over .25 on Sunday but I think that is ana frontal and will go away on the next update.

No reason to buy the anafrontal wave idea unless it's showing up on all guidance and closer lead time. There's a chance the initial system could trend cold enough for NNE to be mostly frozen, but other than that, we can probably punt until at least 1/7.

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4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I think a lot of us are just exhausted by it...I know I am.

Perhaps.  I feel like I've just moved on--maybe it's due to age.  If it snows, I'm all for it.  If not, I could have punted on my new snowblower for a year.  Meanwhile, I'm busy looking at boats and strategizing as to how to make a purchase appealing to my wife. :)

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13 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

As are realistically looking at close to 1/10 at the earliest. Any real sustained anything looks to be late month at best.

I mean why don’t we just say late Feb for anything sustained lmao.  When you start writing off 3 weeks at a clip…you sound silly.  
 

Long range modeling is so bad of late, how can you even say it’ll be another month before we have a shot? It may never improve(that certainly is a possibility), but to say it won’t be until the end of January(when January isn’t even here yet), is just throwing darts in the dark.  
 

If we’re writing off time going forward, maybe we should only do it a week or so at a time, instead of a month.  

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9 minutes ago, moneypitmike said:

Perhaps.  I feel like I've just moved on--maybe it's due to age.  If it snows, I'm all for it.  If not, I could have punted on my new snowblower for a year.  Meanwhile, I'm busy looking at boats and strategizing as to how to make a purchase appealing to my wife. :)

Good points.  
 

Or go somewhere where there is winter, and enjoy it. I’m here in N. Maine and we got 6” yesterday. It’s beautiful deep winter here. Definitely fills the gap when there is none/nothing going on at home. 

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