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January 2022 Obs/Disco


NorEastermass128
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22 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

The deeper PNA trough also caused the more amplified ridge into the south-central US (like TX/OK up into the lower MS valley) and that helped shred systems…if a few of these shortwaves stay slightly less shredded, you prob get a couple of warning events out of it. 

Yes, this is what I was getting at it in my exchange with scooter...I know he is aware, just saying. I made an annotation illustrating this last week. Often times at this latitude, the most detrimental impact of RNA on snowfall is that is provides deconstructive interference for SWs, rather than rendering it too warm to snow...the latter is more common points south.

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1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yes, this is what I was getting at it in my exchange with scooter...I know he is aware, just saying. I made an annotation illustrating this last week. Often times at this latitude, the most detrimental impact of RNA on snowfall is that is provides deconstructive interference for SWs, rather than rendering it too warm to snow...the latter is more common points south.

Yep, just a little less in either direction (mostly RNA PNA..whatever you want to call it) would have helped a lot.

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1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

I know...but what happened that year? They baked out west and into AK. I think it's a classic climo balance. All the years they had lack luster snow in the 2010s....making up for it now. That's the result of a -PNA on roads. Usually Ninas aren't as snowy in the central Sierra.

I love snow but I like the fact that the Sierras are getting pounded with snow, even though it is to the detriment of the northeast.  We depend on California for a good share of our fruits and vegetables.  Also, their snowpack should lessen the severity of wildfires.

I'm not concerned about the outlook for January as in my experience February has most often been the best month for snow.  I most enjoy watching the snow fall, although I realize in your area snowpack seems to be just as, if not more important.

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41 minutes ago, ice1972 said:

The definition of a good winter does not include losing December.......theres three periods in winter and you can't go down 2-0 in the first period and expect to blow out the other team especially when the wait for the next game is 9 months - God it sucks to lose December - can't do that

Oh we disagree here. I have low expectations for December here in SNE. In a four quarter game, Feb and March are winning time. You can easily have a good December and fall apart. A rocking Feb/March closes things out strong.

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57 minutes ago, ice1972 said:

Totally - winter needs to behave itself and not be a ****ing toddler about it........you can't lose December like this and feel good about the rest of the season even if it turns out "average".....so many people on here are cool with an "average" winter.....its fuking weird....

When was December a winter month in West Hartford??? A few years the last decade? It's not normal to have snow in your area in December... not even northwest CT has that usually, at least nothing that lasts. Now, if we get a week or so into January and nothings happening well then we may have a problem

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Just now, CoastalWx said:

Yeah much better for you, and the last is a low chance deal here, but close to something decent. 

The third one is the best one but looks to just fringe down to you and the coast up here, Would rather see these first 2 remain relatively weak and don't allow the baroclinic zone to get that far east for the third SLP to track closer to the coast.

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Just now, mahk_webstah said:

would the first or 2nd wave help with the antecendent airmass?  I was reading that that was the main problem for the weekend and early next week.

It would, But it also allows the broclinic zone to get further east so that 3rd follow tracks further east as well.

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9 minutes ago, UnitedWx said:

When was December a winter month in West Hartford??? A few years the last decade? It's not normal to have snow in your area in December... not even northwest CT has that usually, at least nothing that lasts. Now, if we get a week or so into January and nothings happening well then we may have a problem

IDK - that doesn’t matter….you’re hung up on average or normal or whatever it is people here smoke……the point is that it can snow and be all wintery in west Hartford in December - we know this and we’ve seen it…..plenty of times I’ve had a good starter pack on my Xmas lights on the azaleas to get the month solidly in the win column…..sure maybe it’s “normal” to have more “winter” I. Jan and Feb here but I don’t care…..I expect greatness every year…..this December is not great - it’s not even good…..it’s garbage and you all know it and it sucks

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15 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said:

Here, let me help him. @MJO812

 

 

 

icon-all-ne-total_snow_10to1-1340800.png

Congrats Quebec City!  For those of  you who haven't been there, it is the best place for a winter vacation on this continent.  Lots of snow, very old city with all sorts of monumnents to wars on this contintent over the last 400 years.  Feels like Europe, with French spoken, but very friendly with English speakers.  Amazing food and great charm and walking.  Winter carnival at start of February last for 2 weeks and is well worth it.  I think the USD is still strong against the CD.  Go and your weenie needs will be met.  Romantic as hell so bring the significant other and that last sentece will have multiple meanings.

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26 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

The 3rd low looks a bit like a fraud….maybe it’ll work out but imho the best chance is to trend the one before it into a classic overrunning/SWFE. 

 

I Implore people that are in this primarily for snowfall, which I would venture to say is the majority of us, to check out on this conga line of nuisance dribble. If you just want to nerd out over the science of prostate milking to 1001 mb lows, then this is the pattern for you. But if you are emotionally invested in fun winter storms, get out and stay out until further notice.

I don't need the headache of precipitation type issues from episodes of .01" QPF.

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