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Winter 2021/2022 January Thread


AMZ8990
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@Holston_River_Rambler, take a look at the trend of the system this evening and tonight since the Jan 19th 12z run of the GFS.  Center it on hour 24 of the 6z run this morning.  It is almost comical how far it has moved northwest.  It has moved from a coastal ice storm to a decent even for almost all of North Carolina.

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33 minutes ago, Reb said:

Roads were white on 66 in Kodak a few min ago 

Just went and checked some higher res modeling....Interestingly, the WRF-ARW and 3K NAM have some super light precip hanging around in your area this morning.  Super faint on the modeling.  Looks like it is just yesterday's system moving out.  Very cool though!!!  Congratulations on the bonus snow.

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MRX HWO…

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

A storm system will move across the Gulf coast states and spread
precipitation into the Tennessee valley and southern Appalachians
Tuesday and Tuesday night. A wintry mix of snow, sleet and rain is
expected with light snow accumulations possible, mainly across the
higher elevations. There is a lot of uncertainty on the exact path
and strength of this system. Please stay tuned to further weather
updates


.

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I won't be shocked to continue to see light precip over Eastern TN through the day. Especially with this look in the mid levels.  As the storm progresses we may actually get an hour or two of semi-decent returns over the eastern counties bordering NC as the storm begins to crank.

 

This was so close to a much larger event if that shortwave would tilt negative. 

B83D0497-CE95-4602-814E-3E13A92A8D65.jpeg.6e304c52f2bccebb73d033e4fc6e9b1f.jpeg

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3 hours ago, bearman said:

image.thumb.png.9ec82b9a5a38e8e4b5611e98a801c1cc.pngHeavy snow shower near bulls Gap.  That is putting down some snow.

 

3 hours ago, Jed33 said:

Well it was moving NE but it sank SE and decided to pay a visit to Dolly. And that Bulls Gap snow shower was that legit? I mean it’s like it went poof as soon as it started.

 

I am pretty sure the Bulls Gap returns were not convection but an animal.   I've noticed the classic "ring" around this time in that exact area typical of insects/birds.

(Another benefit of tier 2 RadarScope. Archive and my own custom color tables)

CCEE844F-DCEB-4970-AFC2-E61357E649B6.thumb.gif.92cfa9f6ed3fc3297deae0eb4184c36f.gif

 

The CC also indicates extreme differences in size of objects. Although this forum isn't letting me upload it.

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1 hour ago, Weathertree2 said:

That is an insane amount of snow  lol  

LOL.  Pretty epic run and I don't say that lightly.  No idea if that stays on modeling, but the ICON hinted at this on its 12z run.  Modeling has been wanting to churn up a big storm between Tuesday and next weekend...but lately has been leaning towards a weekend event.  That storm is on the map so long that it phases with with the next system which is like 2-3 days behind it.  Not often we get to see that type of run.  Hope it comes back on future runs needless to say!

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