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Winter 2021/2022 January Thread


AMZ8990
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The RGem tried again and even got snow a little further NW but overall less moisture made it over the mountains vs earlier. 

There's a trailing piece of energy that the Euro was allowing to interact with the storm and that pulled it West. Now the Euro just blows it away.  The GFS has been developing it behind the first piece and giving the Carolinas a long long duration overrunning event. 

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The RGem tried again and even got snow a little further NW but overall less moisture made it over the mountains vs earlier. 
There's a trailing piece of energy that the Euro was allowing to interact with the storm and that pulled it West. Now the Euro just blows it away.  The GFS has been developing it behind the first piece and giving the Carolinas a long long duration overrunning event. 

Isn’t the Euro bad about leaving energy behind?


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Just now, TellicoWx said:

GEFS jumped the energy as well...another jump like that and the GFS will look more like the short range models, and bring alot more into the game.

Noticed the GFS trend over the past 3 runs is the westward expansion of the precip.  It’s literally moved back to the west about 200 miles.   
 

What do you mean by jumping the energy?  Trying to learn..

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1 minute ago, Vol4Life said:

Noticed the GFS trend over the past 3 runs is the westward expansion of the precip.  It’s literally moved back to the west about 200 miles.   
 

What do you mean by jumping the energy?  Trying to learn..

If you watch the 500mb vort map, you can follow the northern energy digging south. Earlier runs it digs thru the OH River valley. 0z digs it back into MO. Short range has been digging it to OK. Further west/southwest it can dig. The better odds of 1) able to spin a LP sooner (more west than currently) 2) increases the interaction with the energy over the south west.

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12 minutes ago, John1122 said:

This is what Tellico is referring too. Watch the final frame vs the prior 3 runs. 

cprh6g.gif

Thanks John...and if you watch the last frame all 3 pieces of energy (Southwest, N. Plains, and ours) jumps back west almost exactly the same distance. Almost like it shifted the entire upper air pattern over NA in unison.

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The Euro has a ton of activity along the Gulf with a massive high in place in the Mid-West but slides several lows by with no amping at all. At one point there's a 1046 in Iowa and a L around New Orleans and nothing. There's another in the barrel and ready to fire behind that one. Looks like it may be a winner for us, at least on this run.

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This may have been the little piece of vorticity John was talking about, but I'm not sure, so here is a frame from the 6z RGEM:

nECfTa8.png

Look at that tiny area of vorticity in the blue circle. Now watch what it does as the run progresses:

giphy.gif?cid=790b7611586d77fda80dbb6bec

 

It seems to be encouraging at least some part of the southern vort to interact with the northern one. It's a pretty subtle strand of vorticity, so something to watch on the very Hi Res models over the next few cycles. 

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Not that anybody trusts the Euro at this point, but for those of use who are happy just to se snow falling, it gets the job done tomorrow AM for parts of East TN, SW VA and SE KY

NclkR9s.png

even the 6z GFS is trying:

DMlQG1M.png
 

The only other models that are trying to show this are the WRF-ARWs, so it is what it is I guess. 

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15 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

6z Euro manages to look kind of RGEMish and gets some qgf back over the mts:

giphy.gif?cid=790b76119330418b6d3f0f452d

How much of that makes it to the ground is up in the air. It is a slight west jog from 0z. 

So close yet so far away, I think we get another whiff! 

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Trends matter at this point.  Modeling didn't exactly slam the door on snow falling in far E TN this weekend.  The 6z Euro has it.  The 0z CMC has it as does the RGEM.  The GFS does not at 6z, but did at 0z.  @Math/Met has some good insight above.  To me, I can't rule out some light snow in E TN, especially the NE areas.  Trends will be important today.  If it is going to move, we will need to see that process begin today.  Micro move in the right direction last night, but going to need more than that.

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12 minutes ago, Kasper said:

So close yet so far away, I think we get another whiff! 

Not buying the no scenario until morning of…… just got the go north feel.  It we were in the bullseye everyone would be convinced it was going to end up in the upper lakes region.    LoL it still might end up there.

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I really hope we aren't about to have two weeks of frigid weather and 0 snowfall. Shades of January 2018, except this time there would be snow all around us.

Yeah that would definitely be a punch in the gut. Lucky this pattern is just now going into a really good 500mb look and I think this isn’t our last GOM opportunity. There will also be wrinkles in the flow that only high res will pick up on less than 48 hours out that can easily drop a couple of inches with NW flow. I still don’t think Friday’s system is off the table.


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What an awful 12z suite for friday/Saturday ha.  At least we were never really in the game to be too invested in this system.  Some of the model runs showing the precipitation shield blossoming west always looked funny to me anyways.  Will still watch but I guess we are in punt territory.

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10 minutes ago, PowellVolz said:


Yeah that would definitely be a punch in the gut. Lucky this pattern is just now going into a really good 500mb look and I think this isn’t our last GOM opportunity. There will also be wrinkles in the flow that only high res will pick up on less than 48 hours out that can easily drop a couple of inches with NW flow. I still don’t think Friday’s system is off the table.


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Yeah even just a small NW Flow event in these conditions and we could have snow-cover for several days. Hopefully something comes our way so we aren't wasting cold weather on just being cold.

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Yeah even just a small NW Flow event in these conditions and we could have snow-cover for several days. Hopefully something comes our way so we aren't wasting cold weather on just being cold.


It’s amazing how way up north it never quits snowing with negative DP’s but it never fails when we get cold enough, we dry out.


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Nah.  This isn't Jan 17-18 at all.   There have been a ton of storms to track so far this season.  That was insanely dry weather back in 17-18.  This pattern is nothing like that.  The STJ is active.  The cold is not as intense which allows storms to track at much higher latitudes.  We just don't live at a latitude where it snows every week.  The past two weeks have been a great run for many. Heck, IMBY, we probably have had less than most, but it has still been good.  I like next week.  Tuesday is a time frame to watch.  I think this weekend is a whiff.  Honestly, the storm doesn't seem to be getting itself together.  Maybe that changes, but just seems anemic at this point.  So, on to the next one.  Tuesday looks like a minor system on the 12z GFS, and maybe something cooking right after that if the 0z Euro is correct.  12z GFS has that late week system as well.

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