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Winter 2021/2022 January Thread


AMZ8990
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Honestly, I would not have guessed BNA would be doing better snow total-wise than many along I-44 heading across I-70 into Indiana. This won't hold up...but for now, it's an interesting map in time. 
sfav2_CONUS_2021093012_to_2022011712.thumb.png.c05833b677ec8d3416b785318d19e3b0.png

885c3d5f0d380197a020c66c69ef34a6.jpg
Maybe for banter but poor Chattanooga lol. I hope we can cash in on something


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2 minutes ago, TellicoWx said:

Good example of how conservative it is on accum maps, look at the KY/IL/IN area. Most models right now have at least a 2" swath thru there for the mid week system. But the NBM only puts out .5". So for it to be putting out 2" amounts in our area 5 days out seems like pretty loud honking from it.

How close was it for the storm that just passed. I know it looked like it was going to score a coup but think the back side may have doomed it. 

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14 minutes ago, John1122 said:

How close was it for the storm that just passed. I know it looked like it was going to score a coup but think the back side may have doomed it. 

It was almost ridiculously low for my area. It was so consistently low I questioned what in the world it was blending? Not any of the models I was checking.

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It was almost ridiculously low for my area. It was so consistently low I questioned what in the world it was blending? Not any of the models I was checking.
Same here, technically got 4 times the amount modeled IMBY. I think it's a great concept for modeling but I think bias and climatology at least in some instances are possibly over emphasized in it's calculations, and maybe not emphasized enough in other situations.

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She's a beaut, Clark!
ctY5Xf.md.png
Let's hope the Euro is correct. I'd like to see a ground sticking snow here. I guess I shouldn't complain about Sunday getting close to an inch on the ground. At least it was something to see for change. Reel this one in John so we can see a completely white ground down here!

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If we can get the GFS to do this with the weekend (and that is a big IF, we can't jinx it by saying it is a done deal), we should be good:

giphy.gif?cid=790b76118201ba5ed0feafeb42

again we just don't want it too NW, lol. The 6z was slightly NW of what John noted at 0z. If that trend continues, I should be able to make a nice gif showing it by 18z.

6z GEFS already seems to have some members with a Euro like solution:

giphy.gif?cid=790b7611c1852ccf60afb946f8

 

6z GEFS members:

E483v3g.png

 

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MRX morning discussion....

Next round of weather looks to possibly be more impactful, but
unfortunately at this time there is still some major differences in
deterministic models, and ensemble guidance. Models are in somewhat
good agreement that there will be a southward diving trough across
the plains, and a surface low developing near the northern GoM.
Biggest difference in the models (at this point) is how strong and
how far south to take the mid level low, either through the Ohio or
Tennessee Valley. If the weaker GFS solution verifies, then expect
cold, but mostly dry conditions... If the stronger ECMWF solution
verifies the low goes more over the Tennessee Valley and
precipitation will make it up to the western side of the Southern
Appalachians. Temperatures will remain at or below freezing across
the area until later in the day on Saturday, so any precipitation
that does occur Friday into Saturday will likely be mainly snow. Am
not quite yet ready to bite off on the snowier ECMWF solution, as it
appears to be under-doing the downsloping that would occur Friday
into Friday night if it verifies. Again, still a lot on uncertainty
on IF it will even precipitate at all, but it will be worth keeping
an eye out on this weekend system as it gets closer.
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MRX morning discussion....Next round of weather looks to possibly be more impactful, butunfortunately at this time there is still some major differences indeterministic models, and ensemble guidance. Models are in somewhatgood agreement that there will be a southward diving trough acrossthe plains, and a surface low developing near the northern GoM.Biggest difference in the models (at this point) is how strong andhow far south to take the mid level low, either through the Ohio orTennessee Valley. If the weaker GFS solution verifies, then expectcold, but mostly dry conditions... If the stronger ECMWF solutionverifies the low goes more over the Tennessee Valley andprecipitation will make it up to the western side of the SouthernAppalachians. Temperatures will remain at or below freezing acrossthe area until later in the day on Saturday, so any precipitationthat does occur Friday into Saturday will likely be mainly snow. Amnot quite yet ready to bite off on the snowier ECMWF solution, as itappears to be under-doing the downsloping that would occur Fridayinto Friday night if it verifies. Again, still a lot on uncertaintyon IF it will even precipitate at all, but it will be worth keepingan eye out on this weekend system as it gets closer.


It’s interesting that they went with their blended model for the Wednesday night system which they have been leaning on heavily lately but didn’t mention it for Friday after it showed a snowier solution.


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