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Mid to Long Range Discussion ~ 2022


buckeyefan1
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52 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

It will get it done, but it’s 1038 over Maine at the beginning, it very quickly moves to Newfoundland. I should have elaborated. Big CAD need the high moving into that position with the precip, not leaving. Even with the cold push on the EURO it has nothing to sustain it and the only reason it hangs on is bc the system is so weak you don’t have the 850 warmth we always see with stronger systems. My point is, in this setup we’re going to have to thread the needle to see anything more than nuisance ice. The Euro is the best bet but sadly it’s on an island and not impressive to begin with

Yep we are into mid Feb at this point. The setup just isn't enough here.

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2 minutes ago, burrel2 said:

February 6th is mid-February? 

No I am saying it isn't looking great for this weekend's system to work out so that would take us to mid Feb in terms of chances after that. The parent high retreats quickly and the wedge won't hold nearly as long with that setup. ZR is self limiting as it is without a strong cold air feed maintaining itself.

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6 minutes ago, eyewall said:

No I am saying it isn't looking great for this weekend's system to work out so that would take us to mid Feb in terms of chances after that. The parent high retreats quickly and the wedge won't hold nearly as long with that setup. ZR is self limiting as it is without a strong cold air feed maintaining itself.

... and if the long range models are correct, we begin a warmup after the 15th that lasts into March.

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2 minutes ago, Taylorsweather said:

... and if the long range models are correct, we begin a warmup after the 15th that lasts into March.

This isn’t towards you…. But as others have stated, we’ve been hearing for weeks now how it was gonna warm up in 3 weeks then 2 weeks then oh no 3 weeks again, rinse repeat…. I don’t believe that for a second the Long Range should always be looked at as Neutral until 10 days or so away bc of how many variables play into it  

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30 minutes ago, eyewall said:

Yep we are into mid Feb at this point. The setup just isn't enough here.

Sadly, if you didn’t capitalize on the pattern we are exiting, the odds are not in your favor going forward. Definitely feels like a bit of a wasted pattern, at least for RDU. I know Charlotte/triad/upstate/Virginia/South Carolina/NE NC/Va Beach folks are all happy, LOL. We had one decent event out of a month straight of chances. At least we had a good snow but man what could’ve been

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35 minutes ago, eyewall said:

Yep we are into mid Feb at this point. The setup just isn't enough here.

I guess i'm more of an optimist but we have a legit threat inside of 6 days right now.  If you're going to discount and look past marginal threats then you're going to miss out on tracking  8 out of 10 snow falls in the southeast.  This threat may not work out, but it's 100% better than having no threat to follow... and every so often these threats do work out and we get a season saving 3 incher out of it.

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FWIW, the 12z NAM looks really good to me. Cold press is stronger like the Euro, the energy that hangs back in texas isn't phasing in with any baja junk like the CMC showed... it's consolidating in north central texas and looks poised to roll east.. not too strong but not too weak looking.

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4 minutes ago, burrel2 said:

I guess i'm more of an optimist but we have a legit threat inside of 6 days right now.  If you're going to discount and look past marginal threats then you're going to miss out on tracking  8 out of 10 snow falls in the southeast.  This threat may not work out, but it's 100% better than having no threat to follow... and every so often these threats do work out and we get a season saving 3 incher out of it.

Agreed…. I look at Long range pattern recognition like a GFS happy hour Bombing…. If GFS showed us a Valentines Blizzard tonight no one would bat an eye, but you let it show a warm up 14 out and Holy hell it’s over guys pack it in

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2 minutes ago, burrel2 said:

I guess i'm more of an optimist but we have a legit threat inside of 6 days right now.  If you're going to discount and look past marginal threats then you're going to miss out on tracking  8 out of 10 snow falls in the southeast.  This threat may not work out, but it's 100% better than having no threat to follow... and every so often these threats do work out and we get a season saving 3 incher out of it.

It's certainly better than knowing winter is over in mid January.  This weekend is a legit threat but marginal.  We are only at Feb 1st, but my feeling is that by mid-Feb, climo tends to tip marginal threats into no-go threats.  You need a strong setup to create a winter event by then except in VA and NC.  Upstate SC where you and I are tends to get shafted by then.

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3 minutes ago, PantherJustin said:

Agreed…. I look at Long range pattern recognition like a GFS happy hour Bombing…. If GFS showed us a Valentines Blizzard tonight no one would bat an eye, but you let it show a warm up 14 out and Holy hell it’s over guys pack it in

Also, the 6z GFS is pretty much showing wall to wall cold. Here's the 240hr 5h anamolies. 

Screen Shot 2022-02-01 at 9.50.56 AM.png

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8 minutes ago, Taylorsweather said:

It's certainly better than knowing winter is over in mid January.  This weekend is a legit threat but marginal.  We are only at Feb 1st, but my feeling is that by mid-Feb, climo tends to tip marginal threats into no-go threats.  You need a strong setup to create a winter event by then except in VA and NC.  Upstate SC where you and I are tends to get shafted by then.

I  mean I get what you're saying, but it's really just not true.  Take this event on February 16th, 2015.... it was a weak in-situ cold air damming event that nobody was really following because it was so marginal. All the global models showed me with a cold 35-38 degree rain. When hi-res models came in to play they were showing a 32/33 rain event for me, yet I got an awesome winter storm out of it. Here are my storm notes below...

 

February 16, 2015

1 inch of sleet 1/10th inch of ice

huge bust in our favor, models at 31/32 temp and freezing rain to rain, got 90% sleet and just a little freezing rain, wetbulbed to around 27 and temp was still 31 as final band came through

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Then there was this event in mid-february; a weak miller A;  no strong dynamics involved.
https://www.weather.gov/cae/Feb12_Snowfall_Event.html#:~:text=The average total snowfall across,and East Central GA...
Man that was a storm... 8.5" imby couple miles outside the city where the airport picked up 6", was all melted by midday Saturday but that was a fun experience.

Sent from my SM-S115DL using Tapatalk

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