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Mid to Long Range Discussion ~ 2022


buckeyefan1
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This is inside 7 days and the GFS has been very good the past couple of weeks picking up storms this far out. I really think it's a legit threat. Maybe not 3 feet, but a legit threat for a huge storm. We seem to be stuck in this pattern of having threats every 6 or 7 days. Remmeber how that happened in 2000, and then we got the big one with the third storm. 

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It is definitely a legitimate threat and this isn’t in fantasyland. These are real pieces of energy that should exist in reality. 
 

We all just need to realize we are threading the phasing needle with this one. Timing is paramount, and you can undoubtedly expect some swings in the modeling. Later phase, earlier phase, no phase at all as the timing of the disturbances changes, etc. 

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5 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said:

This is inside 7 days and the GFS has been very good the past couple of weeks picking up storms this far out. I really think it's a legit threat. Maybe not 3 feet, but a legit threat for a huge storm. We seem to be stuck in this pattern of having threats every 6 or 7 days. Remmeber how that happened in 2000, and then we got the big one with the third storm. 

And coming to tail end of a pattern…. Historically would say signal is there for a “bigger” event 

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2 minutes ago, msuwx said:

It is definitely a legitimate threat and this isn’t in fantasyland. These are real pieces of energy that should exist in reality. 
 

We all just need to realize we are threading the phasing needle with this one. Timing is paramount, and you can undoubtedly expect some swings in the modeling. Later phase, earlier phase, no phase at all as the timing of the disturbances changes, etc. 

I’ve wondered as a Met hypothetical here obviously….. should that still be showing Weds eve…. What would be max a producer would allow you to say on tv amount wise? Or is that not a thing like I think lol 

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1 minute ago, PantherJustin said:

I’ve wondered as a Met hypothetical here obviously….. should that still be showing Weds eve…. What would be max a producer would allow you to say on tv amount wise? Or is that not a thing like I think lol 

Haha. It’s not a thing. Nobody tells us what to say or not say. Our management trusts us to lead the coverage as we deem it appropriate. 

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FWIW, almost half the GEFS members give my area snow, I will take that at this range, and hope for everybody this is the motherlode. I think I speak for everybody when I say if we get a Forum-wide event with multiple FEET in GA/SC/NC along the Blizzard of 1973 track we can all cash out for the rest of winter and start looking at August heat maps and the tropics224f5633f3f6cc7c9606ee96f7aee23d.jpg

Sent from my SM-S115DL using Tapatalk

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Man that January 2016 blizzard messed me up. We didn't get anything in NC but I was working in Pune, India and was supposed to fly back through Abu Dhabi to JFK to RDU. JFK closed and Abu Dhabi was getting filled up with stranded passengers so unless you had a visa for UAE they wouldn't let passengers fly into their if they couldn't then fly on to JFK. Ended up frantically going through Mumbai to Heathrow to RDU over a three day period. I remember flying over the east coast from Heathrow to RDU and just marveling at the sea of white, which of course stopped pretty much at the VA/NC line lol.

Here's the screenshot I grabbed of NOAA's forecast for NYC during that period -- and I think it overperformed this forecast!
 

160123_WxForecastNYC.jpg

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20 minutes ago, Beach Snow said:

Would really like to see the Canadian model jump on board tonight with the threat. It also did a really nice job with yesterdays storm in the 5/6 day range. Very consistent 

It looked to me like the Canadian northern piece of energy was digging a bit more in the past 2 runs.  If that trend continues, then you may get your wish.

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10 minutes ago, Leesville Wx Hawk said:

It looked to me like the Canadian northern piece of energy was digging a bit more in the past 2 runs.  If that trend continues, then you may get your wish.

Yea i just noticed that as i went back to look at H5 and the ensemble maps.  Definitely a noticeable trend.

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For anyone who hasn’t done it let any long range model auto play the entire run and watch all of the northern waves coming our way, diving down, one after another and southern waves coming across Texas and the gulf. 
 

The past few years we can’t get this type of pattern for an extended duration. Our best bet for big snows down here is those waves coming together perfectly to create the storm the GFS has been hinting at next weekend.
 

I feel like we used to hope for lows coming into the gulf being suppressed down to Cuba because we at least had a shot at the high moving out faster and the low turning up the coast. Instead we’ve had app runner one after another or no cold air. 
 

Whether next weekend happens or not, there are ALOT of opportunities in the next 10 days for those waves to give us at least a shot at something good and temps look to be as good as we can hope for in the SE. And in the end at least we have something to track and hope for. 
 

For the pessimistic Ted Lasso fans, it’s the hope that kills you. The rest of us will let you know when there’s no hope again. 

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Who made Fishel mad?

OK I’M GONNA CALL SOME PEOPLE OUT HERE. 

SOME OF THESE FOLKS ARE METEOROLOGISTS AND KNOW BETTER, WHILE OTHERS ARE RANK AMATEURS WHO THINK THEY KNOW WAY MORE THAN THEY DO. I DON’T CARE WHICH GROUP YOU’RE IN, IF YOU’RE POSTING DETERMINISTIC MODEL FORECASTS A WEEK OUT SHOWING SOME WEATHER CALAMITY, YOU’RE NOT IN THIS TO SERVE OTHERS, BUT RATHER TO SERVE YOURSELF. YOU’RE HOPING AGAINST HOPE THAT A MIRACLE WILL OCCUR AND YOU’LL BE ABLE TO BEAT YOUR CHEST AND SAY YOU WERE THE FIRST, AND THAT PEOPLE WILL FORGET ABOUT ALL THE OTHER  TIMES YOU WERE WRONG. AND DO ANY OF YOU UNDERSTAND THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN DETERMINISTIC AND PROBABALISTIC FORECASTS, AND THAT THE LATTER IS THE ONLY RESPONSIBLE WAY TO GO? LOOK, I KNOW OF WHAT I SPEAK. I WENT THROUGH THAT ATTENTION SEEKING, INSECURE PHASE DURING MY 20S, AND THEN I GREW UP. I HIGHLY SUGGEST THAT WE ALL REMEMBER WHY WE DO THIS, PUBLIC SERVICE AND NOT SELF SERVICE.

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Just now, Brick Tamland said:

Who made Fishel mad?

OK I’M GONNA CALL SOME PEOPLE OUT HERE. 

SOME OF THESE FOLKS ARE METEOROLOGISTS AND KNOW BETTER, WHILE OTHERS ARE RANK AMATEURS WHO THINK THEY KNOW WAY MORE THAN THEY DO. I DON’T CARE WHICH GROUP YOU’RE IN, IF YOU’RE POSTING DETERMINISTIC MODEL FORECASTS A WEEK OUT SHOWING SOME WEATHER CALAMITY, YOU’RE NOT IN THIS TO SERVE OTHERS, BUT RATHER TO SERVE YOURSELF. YOU’RE HOPING AGAINST HOPE THAT A MIRACLE WILL OCCUR AND YOU’LL BE ABLE TO BEAT YOUR CHEST AND SAY YOU WERE THE FIRST, AND THAT PEOPLE WILL FORGET ABOUT ALL THE OTHER  TIMES YOU WERE WRONG. AND DO ANY OF YOU UNDERSTAND THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN DETERMINISTIC AND PROBABALISTIC FORECASTS, AND THAT THE LATTER IS THE ONLY RESPONSIBLE WAY TO GO? LOOK, I KNOW OF WHAT I SPEAK. I WENT THROUGH THAT ATTENTION SEEKING, INSECURE PHASE DURING MY 20S, AND THEN I GREW UP. I HIGHLY SUGGEST THAT WE ALL REMEMBER WHY WE DO THIS, PUBLIC SERVICE AND NOT SELF SERVICE.

He must be a Tennessee Titans fan. 

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1 minute ago, Brick Tamland said:

Who made Fishel mad?

OK I’M GONNA CALL SOME PEOPLE OUT HERE. 

SOME OF THESE FOLKS ARE METEOROLOGISTS AND KNOW BETTER, WHILE OTHERS ARE RANK AMATEURS WHO THINK THEY KNOW WAY MORE THAN THEY DO. I DON’T CARE WHICH GROUP YOU’RE IN, IF YOU’RE POSTING DETERMINISTIC MODEL FORECASTS A WEEK OUT SHOWING SOME WEATHER CALAMITY, YOU’RE NOT IN THIS TO SERVE OTHERS, BUT RATHER TO SERVE YOURSELF. YOU’RE HOPING AGAINST HOPE THAT A MIRACLE WILL OCCUR AND YOU’LL BE ABLE TO BEAT YOUR CHEST AND SAY YOU WERE THE FIRST, AND THAT PEOPLE WILL FORGET ABOUT ALL THE OTHER  TIMES YOU WERE WRONG. AND DO ANY OF YOU UNDERSTAND THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN DETERMINISTIC AND PROBABALISTIC FORECASTS, AND THAT THE LATTER IS THE ONLY RESPONSIBLE WAY TO GO? LOOK, I KNOW OF WHAT I SPEAK. I WENT THROUGH THAT ATTENTION SEEKING, INSECURE PHASE DURING MY 20S, AND THEN I GREW UP. I HIGHLY SUGGEST THAT WE ALL REMEMBER WHY WE DO THIS, PUBLIC SERVICE AND NOT SELF SERVICE.

is it just me or has he been a little..unhinged..recently? he's losing it

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