Mid to Long Range Discussion ~ 2022

[BooneWX]

It’s so close.

[GaWx]

 Today's 12Z model consensus, if anything, is a bit further from SE significant wintry precip 12/26-7 vs yesterday's runs. With it now being one day closer, the already pretty low chances have dropped further. I would have expected something more showing up by the 12Z runs today, like a closer to the SE coast surface low formation, if the trend were heading toward a threat. Yesterday was sort of headed toward that but today has backed off.

[CaryWx]

1 hour ago, GaWx said:

 Today's 12Z model consensus, if anything, is a bit further from SE significant wintry precip 12/26-7 vs yesterday's runs. With it now being one day closer, the already pretty low chances have dropped further. I would have expected something more showing up by the 12Z runs today, like a closer to the SE coast surface low formation, if the trend were heading toward a threat. Yesterday was sort of headed toward that but today has backed off.

Almost towel time unless the passage of this front changes model proggs

[CAD_Wedge_NC]

37 minutes ago, CaryWx said:

Almost towel time unless the passage of this front changes model proggs

I agree .... I would let the smoke clear with this FROPA, then see what happens.

[JoshM]

We can always go to the beach for a New Years tan

[PackGrad05]

EPS is showing 66 for New Year's Day.  GEFS showing 69.

Cool down after that.

Climatologically, timeframe around MLK Holiday is always good for us.

[BooneWX]

1 hour ago, PackGrad05 said:

EPS is showing 66 for New Year's Day.  GEFS showing 69.

Cool down after that.

Climatologically, timeframe around MLK Holiday is always good for us.

Hopefully the Pacific becomes kinder next cold shot. It looks like the Nina is showing signs of decaying in the coming weeks.

[GaWx]

 Although model consensus is keeping any surface low pressure too far offshore to give the deep SE wintry precip 12/26-7, the clipper associated with the 2nd upper level disturbance is giving accumulating snow (mainly light) to some areas well inland in the SE per the consensus between the PM of 12/26 and the AM of 12/27. The 12Z UKMET fwiw gives a portion of N AL and much of N central to N GA accumulating snow late Mon afternoon through Mon evening with as much as 1-1.5" Anniston, AL, to LaGrange, GA, and 0.5" in the SW ATL burbs to near the airport. Previous runs had nothing like this. Temperatures preceding this on Monday only rise to the middle to upper 30s after lows well below freezing. The 850s are a bit below freezing. Thus, the air and ground will be plenty cold enough. So, Monday afternoon and night could get quite interesting in parts of the SE. The disturbance leading to this clipper is not even going to reach the Pacific NW/SW Canada coast for another 36 hours. So, lots of uncertainty remains for something only 3.5 days away.

 Edit: But the 12Z Euro says it is still too dry for snow.

[jharv]

On 12/22/2022 at 12:22 AM, GaWx said:

Latest highest SLP in MT is ~1053 mb. Keep in mind that this isn't based on station measured pressures as they have to be converted to SLP and much of MT is up several thousand feet.

 These SLPs will be rising considerably tonight. I can already say that the UKMET is going to verify way too low. This makes me wonder about how it converts to SLPs. Something's off bigtime.

 Map with current SLPs:

 https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/new/viewsector.php?sector=11&parm=pmsl&underlay=1&source=1#

Guessing no records broken since no follow up post? I checked a few hours after this update and saw 1054.

[GaWx]

58 minutes ago, jharv said:

Guessing no records broken since no follow up post? I checked a few hours after this update and saw 1054.

 From best I can tell, I'm guessing no records and high 1050s, which would not be a record despite still quite possibly being the strongest high since 12/1983. I can tell you that the highest for MT, IF this link to hourlies at Helena has accurate SLP data, is at least 1056.5 mb (this says that occurred at 8:53. AM MST on 12/22):

 

https://w1.weather.gov/data/obhistory/KHLN.html

 

2208:53Calm1.25Fog/MistFEW002-31NANANANA30.711056.5

[WinstonSalemArlington]

Larry Cosgrove suggests El Niño is about to micjack La Niña:  “And before I forget: all of the ENSO models say that we start our climb into a weak El Nino next week. Hopefully that will stop the "Triple Dip" jabber once and for all.”

[GaWx]

5 hours ago, jharv said:

Guessing no records broken since no follow up post? I checked a few hours after this update and saw 1054.

 I found three more but don't know that any can be trusted or even recognized, especially since they're all well up in elevation (over 3,600 feet) just like Helena: links to last 7 days:

 

1) Ruby Valley Field (KRVF) : 1066.62 on 12/22 at 7:35 AM MST

https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=Krvf&hours=168

 

Dec 22, 7:35 am

-31

-38

67

N

0

SCT026 SCT031

1066.62

25.65

30.59

 

 

2) Ennis Big Sky Airport (KEKS): 1065.65 on 12/22 at 9:55 AM MST:

https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=Keks&hours=168

 

Dec 22, 9:55 am

-29

-38

60

N

0

10.00

CLR

1065.65

25.02

30.51

 

 

3) Ravalli County Airport (KHRF}: 1059.57 on 12/22 at 8 AM MST:

https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=Khrf&hours=168

 

Dec 22, 8:00 am

-24

-29

75

SE

5

10.00

BKN031 BKN039

1059.57

26.81

30.64

[PantherJustin]

Just Posting (I would normally put in Obs but it’s dead)…. 4 miles EAST Of Mooresville in the Sticks …. Already down to 10.7 think we’re gonna crush that 6 forecast


.

[NorthHillsWx]

Long range is… depressing 

[Coach McGuirk]

59 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

Long range is… depressing 

it sure is, no winter in sight

[CAD_Wedge_NC]

18 minutes ago, Coach McGuirk said:

it sure is, no winter in sight

Not true.... pattern looks to re-load 2nd week of Jan.

[LakeNormanStormin]

Bring. On. Spring.

[NorthHillsWx]

48 minutes ago, CAD_Wedge_NC said:

Not true.... pattern looks to re-load 2nd week of Jan.

Yea, just need to burn through 3 weeks of winter to get there

[wncsnow]

1 hour ago, CAD_Wedge_NC said:

Not true.... pattern looks to re-load 2nd week of Jan.

Hard to say what it will be at that point. Pacific is still raging and the continent will be flooded with maritime air

[GaWx]

 After a quite mild first half, it looks like Dec will end up within 1-2 F of normal in much of the SE thanks to a very impressively cold 12/16-12/28!

 Looking ahead for the SE, it looks like a mainly mild 12/30-1/7 or so before a potential change back to cooler domination starting during the 2nd week in January. Pattern signals are looking favorable for this then with an Aleutian low progged by model consensus to pop the W ridge/ +PNA. This along with the GEFS progging the current +NAO to fall back to neutral/the AO to drop back to negative and the consensus progging the MJO to move to the low to at most moderate amp left side (cold favoring) during the 1st week of January and continuing into the 2nd week tells me that this upcoming mild is likely going to be temporary.

 My 3rd year cold ENSO analogs had suggested as I stated in the winter forecast thread that one cold month, one near normal, and one mild month would be the scenario to bet on. With Dec being the near normal month, this would suggest one cold and one mild month to come. We'll see.

Edit: 12Z EPS falling in line with the above thinking and looking favorable for cold to return during 2nd week of Jan

[GaWx]

 Current (as of 12/25 GEFS) AO prog for Dec 2022: -2.60, which trails only 2009's -3.41 and (barely) 2010's -2.63! 
 
 What does a strongly -AO in Dec suggest for the Jan AO? A very good shot at a sub -1 Jan AO:

 

Strongest 10 Dec -AO/following Jan AO

2009: -3.4/-2.6 6th strongest

2010: -2.6/-1.7

2000: -2.4/-1.0

1995: -2.1/-1.2

2005: -2.1/-0.2

1976: -2.1/-3.8 strongest

1985: -1.9/-0.6

1950: -1.9/-0.1 

1969: -1.9/-2.4 9th strongest

1952: -1.8/-1.0

 

AVG Jan AO after top 10 Dec -AO: -1.5

 

 So, when also incorporating today's GEFS prog, Jan will likely have a sub -1 AO. In addition, the model consensus is suggesting a +PNA for early Jan that intensifies the 2nd week (just confirmed by the 12Z EPS). The MJO is then progged to be on the left side, which tends to favor a +PNA then. That all suggests a decent shot at a moderate or stronger PNA (+0.50+) in Jan. 
 

 At KATL, how were temperature anomalies in January when BOTH the AO was sub -1 and the PNA was +0.5+? (12 of them since 1950)
 

1953, mild +4

1958, cold -4

1961, cold -5

1963, very cold -6

1970, very cold -7

1977, record cold -14

1985, very cold -7

1987, normal -1

1998, mild +3

2010, cold -5

2011, cold -3

2016, normal -1

 

AVG: -4/cold with 8 of 12 cold and only 2 mild

  So, this suggests a 2/3 chance for a cold SE US Jan vs the normal 1/3 chance. Thus, despite the progged mild 1st week of January, the above suggests there's a good shot at actually getting a cold month overall. If so, Jan 8th-31st is liable to be very cold in the SE US to make up for the mild first week.

 Edit fwiw: two of the four non-cold Jan's were during a super El Niño: 1998 and 2016. 1987 was during a moderate El Niño though a moderate Nino tends to be chilly.

[CAD_Wedge_NC]

1 hour ago, GaWx said:

 Current (as of 12/25 GEFS) AO prog for Dec 2022: -2.60, which trails only 2009's -3.41 and (barely) 2010's -2.63! 
 
 What does a strongly -AO in Dec suggest for the Jan AO? A very good shot at a sub -1 Jan AO:

 

Strongest 10 Dec -AO/following Jan AO

2009: -3.4/-2.6 6th strongest

2010: -2.6/-1.7

2000: -2.4/-1.0

1995: -2.1/-1.2

2005: -2.1/-0.2

1976: -2.1/-3.8 strongest

1985: -1.9/-0.6

1950: -1.9/-0.1 

1969: -1.9/-2.4 9th strongest

1952: -1.8/-1.0

 

AVG Jan AO after top 10 Dec -AO: -1.5

 

 So, when also incorporating today's GEFS prog, Jan will likely have a sub -1 AO. In addition, the model consensus is suggesting a +PNA for early Jan that intensifies the 2nd week (just confirmed by the 12Z EPS). The MJO is then progged to be on the left side, which tends to favor a +PNA then. That all suggests a decent shot at a moderate or stronger PNA (+0.50+) in Jan. 
 

 At KATL, how were temperature anomalies in January when BOTH the AO was sub -1 and the PNA was +0.5+? (12 of them since 1950)
 

1953, mild +4

1958, cold -4

1961, cold -5

1963, very cold -6

1970, very cold -7

1977, record cold -14

1985, very cold -7

1987, normal -1

1998, mild +3

2010, cold -5

2011, cold -3

2016, normal -1

 

AVG: -4/cold with 8 of 12 cold and only 2 mild

  So, this suggests a 2/3 chance for a cold SE US Jan vs the normal 1/3 chance. Thus, despite the progged mild 1st week of January, the above suggests there's a good shot at actually getting a cold month overall. If so, Jan 8th-31st is liable to be very cold in the SE US to make up for the mild first week.

 Edit fwiw: two of the four non-cold Jan's were during a super El Niño: 1998 and 2016. 1987 was during a moderate El Niño though a moderate Nino tends to be chilly.

Good work, thanks for taking the time to do this research. Looking forward to verification.

[JoshM]

North Georgia might be in for a surprise Monday night into Tuesday AM

[LakeNormanStormin]

55 minutes ago, JoshM said:

North Georgia might be in for a surprise Monday night into Tuesday AM

That moisture feed gonna hold into the NC Piedmont by any chance?

[GaWx]

21 hours ago, CAD_Wedge_NC said:

Good work, thanks for taking the time to do this research. Looking forward to verification.

Thanks and YW, Mr. Wedge!

 The GEFS retains the favorable solid +PNA/-AO forecast of yesterday as the 2nd week in January arrives. In addition, the MJO model consensus progs still have a very slow moving low amp upper left side path that actually starts near Jan 1 and persists, which in combo with the progged +PNA/-AO based on history/analogs back to the mid 1970s would scream a decent shot at an extensive period of cold SE potential from sometime within the 2nd week of January onward.

 The main fly in the ointment (there usually is one) indexwise for cold potential is that the NAO is projected to approach neutral rather than be negative. But it is falling steadily from a stout +NAO preceding it. Perhaps it would head to a -NAO by midmonth as that's beyond the two week forecast. All 8 of the SE cold January solid +PNA/-AO analogs have a moderate to strong -NAO except for 1961 (weak +NAO). So, that says it would still be possible to have quite a cold January without a -NAO. However, the chances would obviously be significantly better with it.
 

 Looking at the four non-cold January +PNA/-AO analogs, three of them had either a neutral or weakly +NAO. Then again, 2 of those 3 were super-El Niño's. 
 

 The 12Z EPS, similar to recent runs, confirms the transition to a west coast ridge/solid +PNA popping from strongly negative Aleutian heights late in the run. This could easily turn out to be a fun month overall for cold lovers. For warm lovers, please don't shoot the messenger plus you'll have your week in early January, regardless.

[eyewall]

Right now it would seem we are looking to the 8th-12th range at a minimum for any hope.

[NorthHillsWx]

Honestly, get the PAC right and I’ll take my chances with the NAO. We all know that our winter weather chances are dominated by the Pacific. 

[NorthHillsWx]

14 minutes ago, eyewall said:

Right now it would seem we are looking to the 8th-12th range at a minimum for any hope.

I actually like this timeframe. Persistent troughiness in east. Seems like cold air source would be from NE which usually works better than MW for us. Kind of an overrunning pattern. Just need good HP 

[Upstate Tiger]

20 hours ago, GaWx said:

Thanks and YW, Mr. Wedge!

 The GEFS retains the favorable solid +PNA/-AO forecast of yesterday as the 2nd week in January arrives. In addition, the MJO model consensus progs still have a very slow moving low amp upper left side path that actually starts near Jan 1 and persists, which in combo with the progged +PNA/-AO based on history/analogs back to the mid 1970s would scream a decent shot at an extensive period of cold SE potential from sometime within the 2nd week of January onward.

 The main fly in the ointment (there usually is one) indexwise for cold potential is that the NAO is projected to approach neutral rather than be negative. But it is falling steadily from a stout +NAO preceding it. Perhaps it would head to a -NAO by midmonth as that's beyond the two week forecast. All 8 of the SE cold January solid +PNA/-AO analogs have a moderate to strong -NAO except for 1961 (weak +NAO). So, that says it would still be possible to have quite a cold January without a -NAO. However, the chances would obviously be significantly better with it.
 

 Looking at the four non-cold January +PNA/-AO analogs, three of them had either a neutral or weakly +NAO. Then again, 2 of those 3 were super-El Niño's. 
 

 The 12Z EPS, similar to recent runs, confirms the transition to a west coast ridge/solid +PNA popping from strongly negative Aleutian heights late in the run. This could easily turn out to be a fun month overall for cold lovers. For warm lovers, please don't shoot the messenger plus you'll have your week in early January, regardless.

Won't rehash this post because today's models are showing same.  It will take a few days for the OPs to catch up with this transition.  Hopefully we start to see some fantasy stuff in the long range by the end of the week.   

[Grayman]

5 hours ago, NorthHillsWx said:

I actually like this timeframe. Persistent troughiness in east. Seems like cold air source would be from NE which usually works better than MW for us. Kind of an overrunning pattern. Just need good HP 

I thought you cliff dove? I’m not going to get sucked back in by long term pattern change again. I dove also and it hurt. Sorry if this belongs in Sanitarium