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Mid to Long Range Discussion ~ 2022


buckeyefan1
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Just now, BornAgain13 said:

I'm very cautious about going with the GFS/GEFS, until the Euro gets on board.

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I will say with this setup this plays into the hand of the Euro having a tendency struggling with n/s energy and dumping it too far west, ala San Diego going from extreme cold to extreme warmth. GFS ain't perfect by any means but with the ensembles violently agreeing, it gives me a little more hope it ends up projecting something close to reality. Beyond that, man.. all out bombogenesis as it heads from MYR to ILM and then the VA Capes.

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9 minutes ago, Upstate Tiger said:

Don't sleep on the little system for Tuesday night, no pun intended.  Some places could see a dusting across the foothills and piedmont of NC & SC.  

Yeah, temps are super marginal, but that would change if there was more moisture. GEFS takes a step in that direction, so it's not too far from being a decent little event for the northern piedmont. 

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11 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said:

I will say with this setup this plays into the hand of the Euro having a tendency struggling with n/s energy and dumping it too far west, ala San Diego going from extreme cold to extreme warmth. GFS ain't perfect by any means but with the ensembles violently agreeing, it gives me a little more hope it ends up projecting something close to reality. Beyond that, man.. all out bombogenesis as it heads from MYR to ILM and then the VA Capes.

How does something "violently" agree with something else? I'm trying to picture that... :D

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One big difference that stands out between GFS and CMC is in how it handles that PV lobe as it ejects from western Canada. GFS splits into two systems, the first of which aids in confluence over the NE forcing the second wave to dig further SW. 907900E9-22D2-4D46-9F61-465AF990AF1B.thumb.png.5db3d266841d62d8df4eb629a3ddfe79.png

The Canadaian keeps the lobe intact which lends itself to the big amped lakes system.833EB3E6-E3C8-4DDF-802B-E471E663AA72.thumb.png.00e124f3d3fb295661de8780d452322f.png

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1 minute ago, Jonathan said:

Next!

Dude.. i've never seen you so pessimistic on here before. There is literally no way to know which camp is right at the present moment. Can you look at past known biases? Sure.. Until the model war resolves itself either one could be correct. The GFS did score quite a few wins against the EURO here more recently, so there's that as well since the last upgrade of the GFS. 

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  • buckeyefan1 changed the title to Mid to Long Range Discussion ~ 2022
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