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Mid to Long Range Discussion ~ 2022


buckeyefan1
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37 minutes ago, GaWx said:

  This was by a good margin for that long of a period the smallest % of Octobers without a freeze since records there started. Also, the period 2016-21 had no freeze. This six year no freeze October streak is the longest there on record as it beat the old record of four set twice. Actually, 2016-21 October coldest is 35. The prior longest 35+ streak for October coldest was only three.

 In addition, all three of 2019-21 had their Oct coldest of 40+. Prior to 2019, there were a mere three Octobers back to 1903 with a coldest of 40+: 2004, 1949, and 1919! This is to me the most telling record.

 So, to those with more knowledge about KGSO, what is the most likely main reason for this highly anomalous warm streak in October? Is it GW, is it a change of the station, itself, or is it increased heat island effect? After looking at KRDU and KFAY, I think it is some combination as opposed to just from GW.

Edit: Prior to 1990, only 33 of 87 (38%) Octobers had no freeze. Since 1990, 21 of 32 (66%) had no freeze!

Fascinating stuff. Keep it coming!

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On 10/18/2022 at 10:51 AM, GaWx said:

  This was by a good margin for that long of a period the smallest % of Octobers without a freeze since records there started. Also, the period 2016-21 had no freeze. This six year no freeze October streak is the longest there on record as it beat the old record of four set twice. Actually, 2016-21 October coldest is 35. The prior longest 35+ streak for October coldest was only three.

 In addition, all three of 2019-21 had their Oct coldest of 40+. Prior to 2019, there were a mere three Octobers back to 1903 with a coldest of 40+: 2004, 1949, and 1919! This is to me the most telling record.

 So, to those with more knowledge about KGSO, what is the most likely main reason for this highly anomalous warm streak in October? Is it GW, is it a change of the station, itself, or is it increased heat island effect? After looking at KRDU and KFAY, I think it is some combination as opposed to just from GW.

Edit: Prior to 1990, only 33 of 87 (38%) Octobers had no freeze. Since 1990, 21 of 32 (66%) had no freeze!

I suspect equal parts GW, and urban hear Island. Check out this time lapse of development over the past 40 years:

https://earthengine.google.com/timelapse#v=36.08865,-79.93213,12.106,latLng&t=3.63&ps=50&bt=19840101&et=20201231&startDwell=0&endDwell=0

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  • 2 weeks later...

I keep looking for some hint of some cold coming south through the middle of the month but nothing showing up.  There will be some record breaking cold out west next week, especially across the northern Rockies and northern Great Plans.  Lower heights out west should relax after next week.  NAO looks to stay positive through the middle of the month.  After below normal November's for the last few years, maybe we get a below normal December and January instead!

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 For a good portion of the SE US, the thread linked below covers the near unanimous model prog for the development of a complex storm system this weekend in the NE Caribbean to SW Atlantic corridor. The models then move it NW toward the SE coast next week underneath a strong E US H5 to surface ridge.

 It could impact part of the SE as early as Election Day, especially near the coast and with highest chance of having significant impact that early in FL. Thus, inclement weather, which often has a noticeable effect on turnout even with just mundane systems, could turn out to be a major factor for certain SE US races, especially in FL.

 The system as depicted would very likely be subtropical and/or tropical at various timeframes:

 

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 From NWS Charleston, SC: gales and major coastal flooding possible Mon-Wed for SC/GA and this may occur even if there is no actual STC or TC:

 

 
   
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
 
 
ASTRONOMICAL TIDE LEVELS ARE RISING AS FULL MOON ON NOVEMBER  
8TH APPROACHES. ADDITIONALLY, PERSISTENT MODERATE TO STRONG  
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL CAUSE TIDAL ANAMOLIES TO INCREASE. BY EARLY  
NEXT WEEK AN EVEN STRONGER NORTHEAST FLOW COULD PRODUCE  
SUBSTANTIAL ANOMALIES THAT MAY RESULT IN MODERATE TO MAJOR  
COASTAL FLOODING AT THE CHARLESTON HARBOR TIDE GAUGE.  
 
COASTAL FLOODING COULD BEGIN TODAY ALONG COASTAL CHARLESTON AND  
COLLETON COUNTIES AND AS EARLY AS SATURDAY EVENING FOR THE FAR  
SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA AND MUCH OF THE GEORGIA COAST. THE MORE  
SIGNIFICANT TIDE LEVELS COULD BEGIN AS EARLY AS MONDAY EVENING  
AND CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY. A SERIES OF COASTAL  
FLOOD ADVISORIES AND POSSIBLY COASTAL FLOOD WATCHES/WARNINGS MAY  
WILL BE NEEDED.

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 The 12Z UKMET, which has a TS hitting Cape Canaveral at 144 moving NW, has at 168 a still well organized low S of Macon, GA, moving N. At that time, it's rain shield expands greatly with moderate to heavy rains all of the way from the NE GOM to NE AL/Atlanta to SW PA, east to DC, and south to most of VA and NC. This is ahead of a rapidly SEward moving strong cold front that extends from Ohio to TX. If it were to play out similarly, this could end up a pretty major event for much of the SE US, including providing much needed generous rains.

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2 hours ago, WinstonSalemArlington said:

 

 Thanks for posting this. Looking forward to the cold shot! It does appear that the La Nina favored SE ridge may hold back subsequent cold shots at least to some extent and thus lead to near normal in the longer range. But that would affect us deep SE folks more than you NC folks, which is common with La Nina. 

 Looking further ahead to December, it is a crap shoot but I'll be looking for one solidly cold month this winter based on the eight third year cold ENSO analogs. Wil it be in December? Stay tuned!

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  • buckeyefan1 changed the title to Mid to Long Range Discussion ~ 2022
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