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Mid to Long Range Discussion ~ 2022


buckeyefan1
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25 minutes ago, cbmclean said:

Here is a ranked graph of RDU snowfall from 1991-2020.  Note the Carolina crusher sticks out like a beautiful sore thumb.

image.thumb.png.a9920ff9715bf63bb8463e037d91014d.png

 

I know RDU Climo sucks, but crazy that 3"+ storms only occur about every 2-3 years. 

 

Question: how did you compile the data for multi day storms? I've been meaning to do a similar analysis for Greensboro, but only find day snowfall data out there.

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Just now, olafminesaw said:

I know RDU Climo sucks, but crazy that 3"+ storms only occur about every 2-3 years. 

 

Question: how did you compile the data for multi day storms? I've been meaning to do a similar analysis for Greensboro, but only find day snowfall data out there.

I just grabbed the monthly data from here

https://www.weather.gov/wrh/climate?wfo=RAH

You can also get the GSO data from there as well.

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3 hours ago, eyewall said:

Neither the Euro or GFS shows anything promising in the foreseeable future. It appears the SE ridge is going to strengthen and kill us. The clock is ticking so hopefully that trends weaker as we go on.

Are we looking at different models? Long range literally looks as or more promising than it has all winter.

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The ice/CAD signal is huge for this storm. Euro would have been a doozy too but it splits the ball of energy in the southwest in to two separate vorts that both amp and tilt as they approach the south east ridge… but bc they’ve been split they don’t have enough oomph to get a storm brewing for us. That splitting seems odd and I doubt it plays out that way. 

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5 minutes ago, burrel2 said:

The ice/CAD signal is huge for this storm. Euro would have been a doozy too but it splits the ball of energy in the southwest in to two separate vorts that both amp and tilt as they approach the south east ridge… but bc they’ve been split they don’t have enough oomph to get a storm brewing for us. That splitting seems odd and I doubt it plays out that way. 

With the upgraded GFS having a signal, I put a lot of stock in that.

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11 minutes ago, burrel2 said:

The ice/CAD signal is huge for this storm. Euro would have been a doozy too but it splits the ball of energy in the southwest in to two separate vorts that both amp and tilt as they approach the south east ridge… but bc they’ve been split they don’t have enough oomph to get a storm brewing for us. That splitting seems odd and I doubt it plays out that way. 

Ik we’re just looking at signals but that’s a much more realistic signal imo… than some Blitzing snowstorm. It’s consistently shown a classic CAD signal in that time period for awhile now 

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I always say with the weather “What goes up, must come down” and I figured the extremely above average December would be followed by a below average January. But this is insane, almost a 2013-14 type pattern just lighting up the Eastern US at the moment. New England gets buried this weekend, and the Great Lakes gets buried next week

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  • buckeyefan1 changed the title to Mid to Long Range Discussion ~ 2022
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