Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,502
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Weathernoob335
    Newest Member
    Weathernoob335
    Joined

Mid to Long Range Discussion ~ 2022


buckeyefan1
 Share

Recommended Posts

46 minutes ago, burrel2 said:

Euro looks like it's going for glory at 144hr, imo.

Lol that is most likely the heaviest fantasy computer snow I've ever seen. Pretty wild the euro has a similar solution. I figure  I probably have about as much chance for that to happen  as winning the PowerBall.  

 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, Lookout said:

Lol that is most likely the heaviest fantasy computer snow I've ever seen. Pretty wild the euro has a similar solution. I figure  I probably have about as much chance for that to happen  as winning the PowerBall.  

 

sharing is caring and winning is giving.... let's reel it in!

Link to comment
Share on other sites

6 minutes ago, Lookout said:

Lol that is most likely the heaviest fantasy computer snow I've ever seen. Pretty wild the euro has a similar solution. I figure  I probably have about as much chance for that to happen  as winning the PowerBall.  

 

CMC,Euro, and gfs are all giving you 18"+.  I'm not sure i've ever seen a long range threat hit on all 3 global models like that. Has to be a great sign that this may have some legs.

(CMC keying on a different wave, but does the same thing with it)

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, burrel2 said:

CMC,Euro, and gfs are all giving you 18"+.  I'm not sure i've ever seen a long range threat hit on all 3 global models like that. Has to be a great sign that this may have some legs.

Are you saying the next 30-40 model runs will exactly match this solution? Does it have ensemble support? 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, snowmaker13 said:

Are you saying the next 30-40 model runs will exactly match this solution? Does it have ensemble support? 

No i'm saying the threat may have some legs... as in there may be a winter storm impacting the southeast in some capacity. 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

and there's not much ensemble support. This threat could definitely go poof with the next model cycle.  It's a pretty anomalous set up in general. But all three global models having it is a great sign.  We really need to keep the general look of a the wave dropping down hard enough to spark a gulf low for the next few cycles... if we do. then game on.

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

 

Just now, burrel2 said:

and there's not much ensemble support. This threat could definitely go poof with the next model cycle.  It's a pretty anomalous set up in general. But all three global models having it is a great sign.  We really need to keep the general look of a the wave dropping down hard enough to spark a gulf low for the next few cycles... if we do. then game on.

Hopefully the models stay consistent like the last system. Agreed, there is for sure a storm signal. Exactly if and when is unknown. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, olafminesaw said:

698E1B1E-D816-4D89-AD85-A0D92B624B38.thumb.png.14465a9508a8fd21aedf612901fda97d.png

This actually looks pretty good. My biggest worry is the trough dropping down too late and too far to our east.  All the models have been pretty consistent with the mega drop down and bombogenisis, it's just a lot of the early runs were doing it too late and too far east for us.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

18 minutes ago, SnowDawg said:

Almost all ensemble members support a storm. But the consensus for now is a late bloomer, with the trough off the Atlantic coast. Basically the 18z GFS is roughly the ensemble mean at the moment. Hopefully we can get some positive trends over the weekend.

Any pics per the 18z GFS?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

12z NAM is collapsing the boundary layer and dumping snow in North Alabama/GA with the shortwave that passes through Tuesday.  Knew it would show that when we got in range.  Only problem is most globals have trended away from any precip making it in to Northern AL/GA/SC. Sorta hard to believe how quickly they dampen out that wave though after it goes negative tilt back in Texas.

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 minutes ago, burrel2 said:

12z NAM is collapsing the boundary layer and dumping snow in North Alabama/GA with the shortwave that passes through Tuesday.  Knew it would show that when we got in range.  Only problem is most globals have trended away from any precip making it in to Northern AL/GA/SC. Sorta hard to believe how quickly they dampen out that wave though after it goes negative tilt back in Texas.

2nd run in a row now that has snow with this. Will be interesting to see if the Globals follow.

Screen Shot 2022-01-22 at 9.47.33 AM.png

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • buckeyefan1 changed the title to Mid to Long Range Discussion ~ 2022
  • buckeyefan1 unpinned this topic

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...