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Mid to Long Range Discussion ~ 2022


buckeyefan1
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I'm not sure if it's just harder to get a pattern that historically produces snow here in the past, if those patterns just don't produce snow like they used to, or the historically great patterns show up on the medium to long range on the models but then change and never happen down the road. Maybe it's all three. Former local met Greg Fishel said the air off the ocean makes it harder for my area to get snow compared to further west in NC. I wonder if the warming of the oceans is making that more and more of a factor in limiting snow here.

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1 hour ago, Brick Tamland said:

I'm not sure if it's just harder to get a pattern that historically produces snow here in the past, if those patterns just don't produce snow like they used to, or the historically great patterns show up on the medium to long range on the models but then change and never happen down the road. Maybe it's all three. Former local met Greg Fishel said the air off the ocean makes it harder for my area to get snow compared to further west in NC. I wonder if the warming of the oceans is making that more and more of a factor in limiting snow here.

Dude. Your area averages about 6" a year. You just remember the good years and not the bad one's. I remember several in the 90's and even 80's that sucked In the mtns.

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59 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said:

I'm not sure if it's just harder to get a pattern that historically produces snow here in the past, if those patterns just don't produce snow like they used to, or the historically great patterns show up on the medium to long range on the models but then change and never happen down the road. Maybe it's all three. Former local met Greg Fishel said the air off the ocean makes it harder for my area to get snow compared to further west in NC. I wonder if the warming of the oceans is making that more and more of a factor in limiting snow here.

I feel like global warming in general is definitely already making an impact locally. To me, it’s almost as if “normal” climo has shifted 1-2 states north already. As in - DC and the upper mid Atlantic gets wintry bouts at a pace we used to be accustomed to and likewise here that many in say the midlands of SC or Georgia (no offense to you guys, I just mean it quite literally) had been accustomed to prior.

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We haven't had an abundance of great patterns over the last bunch of years.  If we had, I would see the point about great patterns don't produce like they used to.

I do think there is something to the point about easterly flow off the oceans affecting eastern parts of the state under certain circumstances.  But that's a small part of the problem. 

We just need to start to buckle the jet in the east again, instead of having winter after winter with troughs sitting in the west.

Anyway, we should see a better period ahead soon.  I expect we'll be able to track a few storms this winter.

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12 hours ago, Brick Tamland said:

I'm not sure if it's just harder to get a pattern that historically produces snow here in the past, if those patterns just don't produce snow like they used to, or the historically great patterns show up on the medium to long range on the models but then change and never happen down the road. Maybe it's all three. Former local met Greg Fishel said the air off the ocean makes it harder for my area to get snow compared to further west in NC. I wonder if the warming of the oceans is making that more and more of a factor in limiting snow here.

You are right that your average is starting to change.  Our climate zone has changed here in the midlands of SC.  We shifted from a 7b to an 8a.  Not a huge change but since the change is based on 30 year averages, I suspect we are closer to 8b.  So in general it is just a bit more difficult to get snow in the south east.  

https://e360.yale.edu/features/redrawing-the-map-how-the-worlds-climate-zones-are-shifting

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Climo hasn't change in my back yard for snow. I've gotten between 2-4 inches nearly every year since 1990 with the exception of 2010-2011 when I had 7.5 inches total(spread across two events).  There were 4 or maybe 5 winters where I've gotten nothing but trace accumulations or less across the last 30 years and they've been evenly spread out within that time frame.

Also, take a look at the Arkansas/Texas region last year. They got a once in a 100 year type snow/cold event last winter. Pretty much the entire state of Arkansas got 12-20 inches of snow that stayed on the ground for weeks. 

 

 

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Yeah if we did have a favorable pattern we would need the low by Key West to start on the models before an inevitable north trend. Certainly everything that looked good for us early on has gone to the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast. Right now it doesn't look great of course.

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 Positive AAM is better for higher latitude blocking. Blocking is more prevelant during El Ninos (+AAM) rather than La Ninas (-AAM) during the winter time and this is related to the location of tropical forcing.

Key word here is location of the tropical forcing (MJO)If this is good blocking can still be achieved meaning you want p8,p1.p2,sometimes p7 if in January.Plus the SOI is hinting more El Ninoish lately (-7.63 today)

The AAM weakened but has leveled off and is ticking back upwards and is still plenty positive.I have my own opinion what drives this but I think it can stay positive most of the month.It may dip again after Jan 16-18th but not drop to negative,patterns often get stuck in low solar as well.

Just my opinion.

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