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January Medium/Long Range Discussion


WinterWxLuvr
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4 hours ago, Ji said:

Becoming a very frustrating winter for Northern va to the northeast

I can never tell if you’re being serious. Why are you so concerned about verbatim surface maps and timing of phases in the long range? You know things will change 500x between now and then. 

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Between the energy coming in over the the top of the amplified ridge out west and the TPV sending lobes southward, the northern stream is a chaotic mess. This is a pattern that requires nearly perfect timing. The problem with Tues-Wed is we are in between vortex lobes as the ss wave approaches. So the coldest air has departed from the previous one and the next one is dropping down over the upper MW just as the southern wave is moving east underneath. There are 2 problems as depicted on the GFS- the flow is compressed in front of new trough dropping south which dampens the southern wave as it moves east, and we aren't very cold as we are 'in between' troughs. At this range guidance surely doesn't have the features and timing quite right, so we keep watching. I have no idea on the next one, other than it remains a window for something. The tendency overall in this (progressive) pattern is for low pressure to form offshore along the strong thermal boundary.

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  • WxUSAF unpinned this topic
14 hours ago, Kmlwx said:

I dunno - If I'm remembering correctly he described it as "dreadful" - but again might be remembering wrong. The day @Ji describes a 36" blizzard as "dreadful" we know we are all in trouble. 

He found it "dreadful" because one of Ben Franklin's models had predicted 48" a few days before...

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