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January Medium/Long Range Discussion


WinterWxLuvr
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21 minutes ago, CentralVaNATS said:

Nothing yet again. Either the patern is done or opp models have had enough and can't interpret the upper air. Everything goes flat and suppressed/ OTS.

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Like others have said...don't sweat specific solutions right now. A storm idea is there...far too early for other details!

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12 minutes ago, CentralVaNATS said:

Thanks for bringing me back off the ledge. I was ready to jump into the Panic Room

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Ledge walkers gotta help each other out, lol But seriously I get it...it does kinda feel like the next 10-14 days are kinda do or die for a good snow chance if the pattern indeed returns to a more typical nina state next month. So hopefully by Sunday or Monday we know about the 25th-29th time frame...The famous "as the pattern breaks down" scenario would certainly be in play there, me thinks...so we shall see!

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2 hours ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Oh wow are those the actual supercomputers??

Clustered computing is more of a correct term.

Massively parallel computing has taken over single compute for a while.  Even on the desktop.

Even scarier is all the wasted resources used for cryptocurrency mining put to beneficial scientific use whether it be weather modeling, medicine, hydrology, et al is absolutely mind blowing!

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8 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

If you toggle 0z and today's recent 18z it's a significant change with trough alignment and the PV lobe trended nw .

 

The adjustment we need is well within a typical error at that range. But if we really want to increase our chances to maximize potential getting that tpv back towards Hudson Bay would make it a lot easier to get something to amplify before it’s off the coast. 

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The adjustment we need is well within a typical error at that range. But if we really want to increase our chances to maximize potential getting that tpv back towards Hudson Bay would make it a lot easier to get something to amplify before it’s off the coast. 
The eps snow mean for us 2 days ago for Friday was 10 inches
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11 hours ago, CentralVaNATS said:

Nothing yet again. Either the patern is done or opp models have had enough and can't interpret the upper air. Everything goes flat and suppressed/ OTS.

Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk
 

The pattern is done? What? Why? Don’t worry so much about vanishing fantasy storms in the 168-384 hr range on individual OP runs. Use the OPs loosely to get an idea of the overall potential ahead (will we have a source of cold air? are models sniffing out a ridge out west? Any potential storms forming? NS / SS interaction? Etc) Worrying about smaller details such as storm track, rain v. snow is pretty much irrelevant this far out. Next run could very well show 3 crippling snowstorms, which we should also take with a grain of salt. 
 

We look to the long range for an overall framework of the pattern ahead, use the medium range to begin sniffing out individual threats, and the short range brings us details / clarity on those specific threats. 

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Not much of a signal on the latest ensembles for a storm over the next week. The general theme is too much NS energy flattening any southern wave that comes east, with some coastal development offshore where the thermal boundary is located. Need some amplification to get precip onshore though. Otherwise it's snow for the fish. Still time for modeled location and timing shifts associated with NS energy shedding off the TPV.

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Not much of a signal on the latest ensembles for a storm over the next week. The general theme is too much NS energy flattening any southern wave that comes east, with some coastal development offshore where the thermal boundary is located. Need some amplification to get precip onshore though. Otherwise it's snow for the fish. Still time for modeled location and timing shifts associated with NS energy shedding off the TPV.
Just on many s/w and fast flow. Where is that blocking promised by the e qbo. So frustrating
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1 minute ago, Ji said:
3 minutes ago, CAPE said:
Not much of a signal on the latest ensembles for a storm over the next week. The general theme is too much NS energy flattening any southern wave that comes east, with some coastal development offshore where the thermal boundary is located. Need some amplification to get precip onshore though. Otherwise it's snow for the fish. Still time for modeled location and timing shifts associated with NS energy shedding off the TPV.

Just on many s/w and fast flow. Where is that blocking promised by the e qbo. So frustrating

Yeah, I don't get what happened to all this blocking that was expected this winter.

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