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January Medium/Long Range Discussion


WinterWxLuvr
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3 minutes ago, BryanInMd said:

Seems the difference between the euro and the GFS is early on.  At 66 the euro seems to be slightly slower and/or more amplified with the NS which allows the downstream interaction and phase with the Baja UL low pulling it along for the ride

 

Screen Shot 2022-01-17 at 1.26.28 PM.jpg

Good post, thanks. So using this side by side, which model would you take over the other for 66 hours out?

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5 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

Yeah the Kuchera might be playing a role 

Yeah, it certainly looks like a cold system at low levels (surface temps in the 20s), but as we know, what do the thermals aloft look like, and in particular, the lift in the DGZ? Waaay to early to quibble over those details -- the 850/700/500/250mb setup looks terrific, as does the surface low track. Reminds me a little of the Jan 26 1987 system (2nd one)...the cold Miller A that isn't overly explosive going up the coast. At least for now..

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1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

No, but seriously yall.  In normal times, this forum would be going kinda nuts with this Euro run.  Now, we're all sitting back, passing a J and like....

"oh.  that's cool. Where are the Doritos."  

i'm exhausted, tbh. its been 2 weeks of non stop model watching. nice to see the euro still showing snow. ill post more later in the week. :) 

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3 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

No, but seriously yall.  In normal times, this forum would be going kinda nuts with this Euro run.  Now, we're all sitting back, passing a J and like....

"oh.  that's cool. Where are the Doritos."  

It is a bit weird.  Euro inside D5?  That used to be cash money.  Hopefully still is?  But can't deny the GFS has been doing very well this month.  GGEM and crazy uncle Ukie have been all over the place.  

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3 minutes ago, WxMan1 said:

Yeah, it certainly looks like a cold system at low levels (surface temps in the 20s), but as we know, what do the thermals aloft look like, and in particular, the lift in the DGZ? Waaay to early to quibble over those details -- the 850/700/500/250mb setup looks terrific, as does the surface low track. Reminds me a little of the Jan 26 1987 system (2nd one)...the cold Miller A that isn't overly explosive going up the coast. At least for now..

One of the driest, fluffy and lightest snow I've ever shoveled.

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20 minutes ago, LP08 said:

Euro ejects the SS SW...GFS leaves it behind.  This is only HR84. 

Euro H5.png

GFS H5.png

Damn .. did they finally fix the Euro? Always used to have a very difficult time with those Baja lows, leaving the energy behind. That makes me think it’s onto something potentially 

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27 minutes ago, BryanInMd said:

Seems the difference between the euro and the GFS is early on.  At 66 the euro seems to be slightly slower and/or more amplified with the NS which allows the downstream interaction and phase with the Baja UL low pulling it along for the ride

 

Screen Shot 2022-01-17 at 1.26.28 PM.jpg

This. Talked about it earlier regarding the 12z rgem. Other factors, but this is a biggie imo 

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3 minutes ago, StormyClearweather said:

Per the ECMWF, DC goes below freezing at 4pm Thursday and doesn't get back above until Tue, Jan. 18. Monday morning looks bone-chilling (which is certainly in part thanks to supposed snowpack). 

 

 

That is one HELL of a cold airmass.  Below freezing for an entire year!

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