Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,502
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Weathernoob335
    Newest Member
    Weathernoob335
    Joined

January Medium/Long Range Discussion


WinterWxLuvr
 Share

Recommended Posts

5 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

If this late week deal doesn't remind you of how we scored bread and butter in JF 2014 or FM 2015.... you didnt live here or you were down in Avanti's basement eating cheetos

I like your excitement about 14 and 15. I really don’t remember specific storms those years, just that we had several hits, and some fairly big. Those were 2 great winters here, which is why, in my opinion,  so many people were disappointed in ‘16 when we only got 1 Storm (even though it was of epic proportions). I could be wrong, but I remember reading that we had blocking due to the displaced PV rather than a -NAO for much of 2014 and/or 2015. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

17 minutes ago, jaydreb said:

FWIW, ICON moved closer to something for this weekend.  
 

image.thumb.png.bfd3d33af13c2ec07bde8868dad77c66.png

 

15 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Yup, was just about to post this.  Still not there, but H5 improved a bit.

All I looked for in the Icon was any trend to the NW, and we got it. That’s a good start to 12z.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

18 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

If this late week deal doesn't remind you of how we scored bread and butter in JF 2014 or FM 2015.... you didnt live here or you were down in Avanti's basement eating cheetos

It doesn’t because I don’t have the weather memory so many of you have. :lol: All I remember is that it was cold and we had a never ending series of vorts flying around the PV that gave us shots at snow.

I wish I had been keeping notes on our snows back then…

  • Haha 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

10 minutes ago, snowmagnet said:

I like your excitement about 14 and 15. I really don’t remember specific storms those years, just that we had several hits, and some fairly big. Those were 2 great winters here, which is why, in my opinion,  so many people were disappointed in ‘16 when we only got 1 Storm (even though it was of epic proportions). I could be wrong, but I remember reading that we had blocking due to the displaced PV rather than a -NAO for much of 2014 and/or 2015. 

Those really were great winters!  What was the ENSO state those years?  2015 had some unusual events like that decent anafrontal snow plus a big hit by a low moving well to our west that stayed all snow.

If that deal this weekend hits south and east like Jan 3, the snow totals to date for say  Frederick compared to Huntingtown will look funny

Link to comment
Share on other sites

16 minutes ago, Heisy said:

12z rgem looks decent at end of run. Could see the cmc show a hit today. That Texas energy is important it seems to partially phase with main shortwave and slows it down allowing it to turn corner

rgem-all-conus-vort500_z500-2723200.png

Way better than the GFS, which has an ugly gap between the northern and southern streams.  RGEM should at least phase half of it.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, stormtracker said:

The GFS is irritating my soul right now.  Hopefully Euro looks like RGEM and then I can rationalize chucking the GFS, although deep down, I know it's probably gonna end up right.

Strange times where we get upset when the Euro shows a storm and the GFS doesn't because we know the GFS is probably right.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

19 minutes ago, mattie g said:

It doesn’t because I don’t have the weather memory so many of you have. :lol: All I remember is that it was cold and we had a never ending series of vorts flying around the PV that gave us shots at snow.

I wish I had been keeping notes on our snows back then…

Dude, that's all you need to know. This is a short/mid range game and it looks "stable" which is kinda an oxymoron because progressive and stable don't jibe but 2014 and 15 had these periods of tracks getting laid down then traffic riding them. Precip shields were all small stripes. But the tracks were aimed at us enough we kept hitting. Time will tell, but this already has that feel. Hit a few more events of any size really and it's practically identical imo

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Dude, that's all you need to know. This is a short/mid range game and it looks "stable" which is kinda an oxymoron because progressive and stable don't jibe but 2014 and 15 had these periods of tracks getting laid down then traffic riding them. Precip shields were all small stripes. But the tracks were aimed at us enough we kept hitting. Time will tell, but this already has that feel. Hit a few more events of any size really and it's practically identical imo

Keep talkin' dirty.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

14 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Dude, that's all you need to know. This is a short/mid range game and it looks "stable" which is kinda an oxymoron because progressive and stable don't jibe but 2014 and 15 had these periods of tracks getting laid down then traffic riding them. Precip shields were all small stripes. But the tracks were aimed at us enough we kept hitting. Time will tell, but this already has that feel. Hit a few more events of any size really and it's practically identical imo

Got it…and that’s kind of what I figured.

Given that I’m sitting at about 75% of climo at this point, I’m fine with being patient until discrete threats for MBY come into reliable range. Good thing is that we don’t really have to wait long. If a threat looks to miss, there should be another one on its heels that we can keep our eyes on.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 minutes ago, mattie g said:

As for this weekend-ish threat period, I’d like to see the GFS at least make a move today towards getting us snows. If we don’t see that today, then it’s getting a little too close to gametime and I’d be a little afraid that this one will slip away.

Agreed.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • WxUSAF unpinned this topic

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...