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January Medium/Long Range Discussion


WinterWxLuvr
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1 minute ago, mattie g said:

But it’s run from the same initial conditions as the op, and the fact they generally resemble each others’ results (excepting snow totals) on day 5 can’t be ignored.

Yes, and EPS resolution is still very high relative to other global operational models and especially other ensemble systems.

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"Another member of the ensemble (CNTL: Control forecast) is at a lower spatial resolution than the HRES but at that lower resolution it utilises the most accurate estimate of the current conditions and the currently best description of the model physics. Its significance for the ensemble is that it provides the unperturbed member to which the perturbations for the remainder of the ensemble members are applied."

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22 minutes ago, osfan24 said:

Can someone explain the point of the Euro Control if it shouldn't be used as guidance?

It’s one member of the ensemble. It has the same initial conditions as the op and can be used to diagnose the impacts of the differing resolution between the ensembles and the op. I don’t think there’s any reason to give it any more weight than any other member of the ensembles, but I’d be interested hearing otherwise. 

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40 minutes ago, midatlanticweather said:

Does the European control ever matter? I think it is notorious for 2 to 3 foot snows. 

At this particular range it matters more than usual. The control starts off with identical data as the op and runs at Ensemble resolution.  Inside of 6 days or so, the control can be more accurate than the op... caveat.... at times... Is this one of those times? Beep bop boop don't know. However, it should absolutely not disregarded because it's "the control". All good data matters 

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1 hour ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

Keep enthusiasm realistic guys. This is the euro. Not exactly top of the line :lol:

Exactly.  It's gotten to the point where I have zero excitement when it's the only model showing something for us.  I woke up and saw the 0z run, yawned and went right back to sleep.

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14 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

The gfs has been good. Also, to add to our confidence, if I’m not mistaken on both of the last two storms it has had the storm early, list it, and then brought it back. I know it did on yesterdays storm.

Yeah and it's not like it's shown a consistent solution since Saturday...I think it's still figuring it out

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2 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Exactly.  It's gotten to the point where I have zero excitement when it's the only model showing something for us.  I woke up and saw the 0z run, yawned and went right back to sleep.

Otoh... I only jump into this game when it's ripe now. When you see my stupid avatar popping up you don't need models for the mid range. When I go totally dark and you still look at ops... I can't help that :lol:

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2 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

RGEM looks better?  Kinda looks like it was gearing up for something decent this weekend at H5?

I haven't been following the details in here quite so much (with yesterday's event going on).  But how much does the Thursday potential influence or possibly impact anything for the weekend?  I actually didn't even think of Thursday until I read a bit in here yesterday!

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