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January Medium/Long Range Discussion


WinterWxLuvr
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17 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Icon and GGEM both hit us next Friday.  GFS is much more suppressed.  

JV models will trend to the GFS, which will start the inevitable climb NW by 12z this Sunday. JV models will lag behind the GFS until 0z Tuesday, when they'll generally converge.

Now...whether that means anything for our backyards, I have no idea, but it's played out more than once in the last few weeks and I see no reason to feel any differently.

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25 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

And so it begins

Now see...

On 1/11/2022 at 1:30 AM, Maestrobjwa said:

Yep...this weekend is looking more like the weekend to start tracking whatever comes the next week/weekend, lol

Well...here we are, lol

On 1/11/2022 at 1:37 AM, alexderiemer said:

You give up way too easily.

Sent from my SM-G975U using Tapatalk
 

 

On 1/11/2022 at 6:12 AM, WinterWxLuvr said:

Great post

Of course I could've just as easily been wrong...but given the mess and not too much getting "crushed" (at least not my neck of the city), and that weird setup with that ocean low, and something where we needed it to back off but not to quick...blech. Never felt good about it! Thus me looking LR after this, lol

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4 minutes ago, CAPE said:

GFS and Euro have also been hinting at snow late next week on recent runs. Its a window to watch with an Arctic boundary approaching.

HH GFS is close. DCA might need fresh snowcover in addition to an arctic airmass to get a low of 21F.

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2 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Perfection. Don't always need a big dog. Love the feel of being way further north than reality once in a while.

So I'm wondering if it's gonna be too much of a good thing...and perhaps after the little wave we shouldn't look for much snow-wise for the week after...(can't imagine moisture with that press of cold) I love deep cold but...I'm wondering if we kinda lose the snow chance for a bit.

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4 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

So I'm wondering if it's gonna be too much of a good thing...and perhaps after the little wave we shouldn't look for much snow-wise for the week after...(can't imagine moisture with that press of cold) I love deep cold but...I'm wondering if we kinda lose the snow chance for a bit.

I’m guessing you’re a glass half empty kinda guy 

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7 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

So I'm wondering if it's gonna be too much of a good thing...and perhaps after the little wave we shouldn't look for much snow-wise for the week after...(can't imagine moisture with that press of cold) I love deep cold but...I'm wondering if we kinda lose the snow chance for a bit.

I kinda like the idea of a coastal scraper the week of the 24th- maybe even a bomb cyclone 2018 redux for the beaches. With the advertised look it will probably snow somewhere nearby. We might have to travel a little is all. Or just enjoy the cold and dry. B)

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13 minutes ago, CAPE said:

I kinda like the idea of a coastal scraper the week of the 24th- maybe even a bomb cyclone 2018 redux for the beaches. With the advertised look it will probably snow somewhere nearby. We might have to travel a little is all. Or just enjoy the cold and dry. B)

I'd be okay with that if we could also have February as a window...but things might relax then if it reverts back to a more nina-like tendency. If cold and dry eats up the second part of January, this weekend and maybe a couple inches with whatever is next week may be it for snow for a little bit. And man I don't wanna think about that bomb cyclone, lol 

Again, if we can still have a shot beyond the next two weeks? Great! (Anybody got thoughts on early February?)

I know the DC/southern half of the forum is in a really good spot for climo...but my half not so much (because of that painful fringe). Would really like to get something bigger. I mean I'd take more of last Thursday night too, though if I can't get the other!

 

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5 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

I'd be okay with that if we could also have February as a window...but things might relax then if it reverts back to a more nina-like tendency. If cold and dry eats up the second part of January, this weekend and maybe a couple inches with whatever is next week may be it for snow for a little bit. And man I don't wanna think about that bomb cyclone, lol 

Again, if we can still have a shot beyond the next two weeks? Great! (Anybody got thoughts on early February?)

I know the DC/southern half of the forum is in a really good spot for climo...but my half not so much (because of that painful fringe). Would really like to get something bigger. I mean I'd take more of last Thursday night too, though if I can't get the other!

 

Well, Cohen's  #machinelearning model thinks the east may roast in Feb. I have no idea, but it does make some sense that the pattern would relax at at some point. A quick look at the GEFS ens extended and the Euro weeklies are suggestive of a milder pattern, for what that is worth.

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8 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Well, Cohen's  #machinelearning model thinks the east may roast in Feb. I have no idea, but it does make some sense that the pattern would relax at at some point. A quick look at the GEFS ens extended and the Euro weeklies are suggestive of a milder pattern, for what that is worth.

You should pop that nugget of info in the Feb Long range fantasy thread

Cohen's model:

IMAGE_1_27102011120410.jpeg

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13 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Well, Cohen's  #machinelearning model thinks the east may roast in Feb. I have no idea, but it does make some sense that the pattern would relax at at some point. A quick look at the GEFS ens extended and the Euro weeklies are suggestive of a milder pattern, for what that is worth.

Well, that would fit the nina tendency...welp,  IF this weekend's thump and a quick hitter next week were to be it (assuming it doesn't turn into something bigger)...still not a terrible nina winter so far. I mean yeah I got sucked into thinking we'd get more this month because the STJ was more active, but hey...at least we are having a legit winter!

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13 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Well, that would fit the nina tendency...welp,  IF this weekend's thump and a quick hitter next week were to be it (assuming it doesn't turn into something bigger)...still not a terrible nina winter so far. I mean yeah I got sucked into thinking we'd get more this month because the STJ was more active, but hey...at least we are having a legit winter!

Don’t worry about the ways you’ll fail or whether next month has any chances or stuff like that.  Just let the weather do its thing.  Late December people in this thread were already cancelling winter and look what happened.  No one can confidently say what next week, two weeks, or next month will bring.  

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