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January Medium/Long Range Discussion


WinterWxLuvr
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54 minutes ago, Ji said:

this is one of those storms that can legit trend north. Not the other 20 storms weve had that had no chance to go north

I agree, and I'd feel really good about where it sits on the GFS if it wasn't for the fact it's on an island by itself in both track and intensity.

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3 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

But the pac looks good…isn’t that what everyone wanted???

Just for educational purposes, what is the mechanism for the warm air in the conus with that look?  I assume that there is a AK vortex and I know that "cuts off the cold air" but how?  As someone else mentioned the streamlines are straight from the Northwest Territories.  Not questioning the model's math, just seeking to understand the mechanics.

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44 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

You know it’s gonna be painful to have warning level snows one County below us… I’m just getting you mentally ready for it 

Dont worry, if it happens I'll be uploading copious pics to the board.  And to be sure, my heart is going to be broken at some point here.  Better to have loved and lost than to have never loved at all.  

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25 minutes ago, cbmclean said:

Just for educational purposes, what is the mechanism for the warm air in the conus with that look?  I assume that there is a AK vortex and I know that "cuts off the cold air" but how?  As someone else mentioned the streamlines are straight from the Northwest Territories.  Not questioning the model's math, just seeking to understand the mechanics.

I dont have access to the 360 Euro maps. But that map he posted was an 850 temp anomaly map. You cant really see anything about surface temps with that map. And the anomaly is only 1C above average which would lead me to believe we are below freezing at 850 on that map.

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overall, this event is certainly a "thread the needle" type storm, but things still look interesting given today's trend of a stronger, slower SS vort with less NS interaction. a GFS-like solution can't be discarded at this juncture

it looks like the American models are doing a decent job with this, as the ECMWF and RGEM took some steps towards the GFS/NAM. the 18z ECMWF made a nice shift towards a more favorable solution:

ezgif.com-gif-maker.thumb.gif.638e59bc4a963d44978e934f5c1594d8.gif

of course, this remains rather unlikely, but I think it's worth looking to see if the 00z runs continue this trend

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1 minute ago, BristowWx said:

Yeah not bad.  Thanks. Need to move that whole thing west a bit.  This will be interesting to see what actually happens.  Euro should be deadly at this range.  I’m not optimistic for NOVA seeing that map.  

Yeah, it's going to be close. But we have plenty of time. Of course we don't want to much of an adjustment to the west, or it might be raining. 

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3 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

Yeah not bad.  Thanks. Need to move that whole thing west a bit.  This will be interesting to see what actually happens.  Euro should be deadly at this range.  I’m not optimistic for NOVA seeing that map.  

Th euro deadly? Outside 24 hours? Hasn’t been the case much

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